As Vice President Kamala Harris prepares to announce her running mate, a poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research shows that some of the top contenders for the office are largely unknown to Americans. Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona stands out as one with greater name recognition and popularity, especially among Democrats.
The poll, conducted after President Joe Biden announced his withdrawal from the race and Harris was seen as the likely Democratic presidential nominee, highlights the strengths and weaknesses that different politicians can bring to the race – and the challenges they could face if elected.
While Kelly is better known and more popular than some of the alternatives, he is still an unknown to about half of Americans. And others, like Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, are less well-known nationally but could draw on more support in their home states and regions. Kelly and Shapiro are considered favorites after the Harris team began considering about a dozen names, according to people familiar with the process.
Harris said Tuesday she has not yet decided on her No. 2. But she and her new candidate will embark on a seven-state tour next week to visit key campaign sites, including Pennsylvania, Arizona and North Carolina.
Arizona Senator Mark Kelly
Of the four potential Democratic vice presidential candidates included in the poll — Kelly, Shapiro, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear and North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper, who publicly withdrew from the race after the poll was conducted — Kelly has the highest name recognition and popularity, according to the AP-NORC poll.
Americans are more likely to have a positive than negative opinion of Kelly. About 3 in 10 U.S. adults have a very or somewhat positive opinion of Kelly, while about 2 in 10 have a negative opinion. Generating more good feelings than bad is a relative rarity in presidential politics these days: Biden and former President Donald Trump have been viewed more negatively than positively for several years.
Like many of his competitors, however, Kelly is not a particularly well-known name. About half of Americans don’t know enough to form an opinion about him.
But Democrats in particular are likely to have positive feelings about Kelly. Forty-five percent have a positive opinion of Kelly. Only about one in ten have a negative opinion of him, and about four in ten don’t know enough to say anything. Older Democrats – those 45 and older – are likely to have a positive opinion of Kelly, while younger Democrats are less likely to know him.
He has proven himself to be a battle-tested campaigner, winning a special election in 2020 to snap up Arizona’s Senate seat from Republicans and retaining it for a full six-year term two years later. The Navy veteran serves on the Senate Armed Services Committee and has been an influential voice among Democrats on immigration and border security issues, long a political vulnerability for Harris that Republicans have sought to exploit.
Governor of Pennsylvania, Josh Shapiro
Shapiro is largely unknown among Americans and Democrats, except in the Northeast, where he is better known and more popular. The poll found that 6 in 10 U.S. adults – including 57% of Democrats – don’t know enough to form an opinion about Shapiro. About 2 in 10 Americans view him favorably, and a similar share view him unfavorably.
The situation is not much different among Democrats. About a quarter of Democrats have a positive opinion of Shapiro, while 16 percent have an unfavorable opinion. Older Democrats are more likely to have a positive opinion of Shapiro than younger ones, but overall most have not yet formed an opinion.
Shapiro was elected governor in 2022, defeating Republican Doug Mastriano – a controversial figure who drew opposition and criticism from members of his own party, including then-Republican Senator Pat Toomey.
Unlike the other candidates asked about in the AP-NORC poll, however, he is much better known – and more popular – in his home region. In the Northeast, 4 in 10 adults have a positive opinion of him. Another 4 in 10 do not know enough to form an opinion about him, while about 2 in 10 Northeasterners have an unfavorable opinion of him.
Democrat Gary Hines of Philadelphia, 68, praised his home state governor highly, adding: “I would hate to see him go because he is just getting started in Pennsylvania.”
Governor of Kentucky, Andy Beshear
If elected, Beshear would have to introduce himself to most of the country. About 7 in 10 Americans don’t know enough to form an opinion about him. Those who do have an opinion are split about evenly: 17 percent of American adults have a favorable opinion and 15 percent have an unfavorable one.
However, Democrats have a more positive than negative opinion of Beshear. About a quarter have a very or somewhat positive opinion, while about one in ten have an unfavorable opinion. Nearly two-thirds do not know enough about Beshear to express an opinion.
The scion of a prominent Democratic family in the state, Beshear defeated then-Governor Matt Bevin – a deeply unpopular figure even in conservative Kentucky – and then won re-election in 2023 against Republican Daniel Cameron, a longtime protégé of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. Beshear’s victory last year was partly thanks to his advocacy for abortion rights, including a campaign ad in which a survivor of sexual assault attacked Cameron for his stance.
Governor of Minnesota, Tim Walz
Like the other governors being discussed, Gov. Tim Walz doesn’t have much national name recognition — and that also means he’s a relative unknown. He wasn’t included in the AP-NORC poll, but a new ABC News/Ipsos poll that measured popularity a little differently found that about 9 in 10 American adults don’t know enough to form an opinion about him. Among Americans who do have an opinion, opinions are split between positive and negative.
Walz, who also served in the House for 12 years, moved up Harris’s list in recent days after he coined “weird” as a new buzzword for the Republican nomination, a phrase that the vice president and other Democrats have also started using frequently.
He is currently chairman of the Democratic Governors Association.
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The survey of 1,143 adults was conducted July 25-29, 2024. The sample came from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of error for all respondents is plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.
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AP White House correspondent Zeke Miller contributed to this report.
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Follow AP’s coverage of the 2024 election at https://apnews.com/hub/election-2024.
Linley Sanders and Seung Min Kim, The Associated Press
