This is the 8th and final installment in My Neighborhood News Network’s series on the arrival of light rail in Snohomish County. You can read part 1 here, part 2 here, part 3 here, part 4 here, part 5 here, part 6 here and part 7 here.

Sound Transit’s Link light rail from Northgate Station to Lynnwood Transit Center is completed, but the journey continues to Everett.

The opening of the Link light rail in Lynnwood on August 30 marks the end of the ST2 Project for residents of southwest Snohomish County. Commuters will enjoy having scheduled stops on their way to Seattle or SeaTac that are not interrupted by congestion.

In the near future, bus drivers will have many Changes to bus routesRoutes in Edmonds, Lynnwood and Mountlake Terrace have been eliminated and replaced with routes that align with light rail. Although all stops are still served, some have changed their terminal stops.

One of the welcome changes is the introduction of flat fares for bus and light rail services in September. Community Transit will reduce its fare for regular fairs to a flat $2.50, and the Link light rail will charge a flat $3 fare regardless of distance traveled. Passengers under 18 ride free.

However, the extension of the light rail to Snohomish County is far from complete, as the section between Lynnwood and Everett has only just entered the planning phase.

Sound Transit 3

Not only is the Everett Peninsula the end of the northern leg of the light rail, but it is also the end of Sound Transit’s district map. This would make the light rail a vital connection for people in Marysville, Stanwood and Lake Stevens.

Sound Transit 3, commonly called ST3is scheduled for completion in 2041. Seven stops will be added north of Lynnwood.

Suggested stops include:

– West Alderwood

– AshWay

– Sailor

– SR 99 and Airport Road

– Southwest Everett Industrial Center

– SR 526 and Evergreen

– Everett Station

“At 16.3 miles, the Everett Link extension will be the longest expansion project Sound Transit has ever undertaken,” said John Gallagher, Sound Transit’s media relations manager. “Building that far will be a huge construction project.”

The distance from Lynnwood Transit Center to Everett Station is almost twice the 8.5 miles between Northgate and Lynnwood.

“Current cost estimates for the Everett Link extension range from $5.05 billion to $6.9 billion,” Gallagher said. “We will have a better idea of ​​the costs once we start planning.”

Questions about responsibility

During the entire financing StoryThe light rail faced funding problems and goals that were realistically beyond its budget. These problems were only exacerbated by inflation, economic recessions, financing problems, housing bubbles, market downturns, and a pandemic.

Smarter transita nonprofit organization that advocates for public transit, is demanding more transparency and accountability from Sound Transit. The group is calling for a pause on all ST3 projects while a cost-benefit analysis of viable ST3 alternatives can be conducted. In addition, it wants all Sound Transit board members to be directly elected by voters at the district level.

Because ST3 is almost twice as far away as Northgate and Lynnwood, there is the potential for twice as much expropriation and at least twice as much construction – two of the main cost drivers.

In a letter dated 7 August Seattle Newspaper Lonergan, who serves as assessor for Pierce County, and Teitzel, a former Edmonds city council member, wrote in an opinion piece for Smarter Transit that Sound Transit is not completing projects on time or within budget. Voters approved $54 billion to complete the system in 2016, but now Sound Transit says it will cost over $148 billion, including cost overruns on ST1 and ST2.

Lonergan and Teitzel wrote in their commentary that “roads, ferries, bridges, bike lanes and sidewalks face billions in deficits in maintenance, preservation and construction. That could mean even more regressive taxes are coming.”

“We are well aware of these pressures and their impact on our projects,” Gallagher responded. “Earlier this year, we hired Terri Mestas as deputy CEO for capital raising; she previously oversaw capital projects at (Los Angeles International Airport).”

Gallagher said Mestas is reviewing how Sound Transit is structured to implement projects and to see how effectively and cost-efficiently those projects can be completed.

“The Sound Transit board is also very aware of these issues and is monitoring them closely to ensure the projects remain affordable,” Gallagher said.

If projects go over budget, there is a possibility that taxpayers will be presented with a vote for more funds to complete the project and those taxpayers could vote “no.”

In that case, Gallagher said, the Sound Transit Board would have to weigh the options, make economic adjustments if necessary and apply for federal grants.

Environmental impact

According to Smarter Transit, by 2050, light rail is expected to account for 3% of all daily trips by car, bus, train, ferry, bike, and foot. Additionally, most passengers will be bus riders who will need to transfer to light rail. With light rail, hours of traffic delays are expected to increase by 35%.

“In our region, the light rail will only reduce greenhouse gases by 6%, while the regional target is 80%. The enormous greenhouse gas emissions from the construction of the ST3 are not taken into account,” wrote Lonergan and Teitzel.

Not to mention another important issue raised by Smarter Transit: the environmental cost of light rail: the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) emitted by the project compared to the amount avoided.

Fimia wonders whether the pollutants used in the project will increase or reduce carbon emissions as more drivers in Snohomish County begin to purchase electric vehicles.

In a 2018 Chatham House Reportupdated in 2020, cement is said to account for 8% of global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. In addition, according to New York State, concrete has a carbon exchange rate of almost one-to-one, with one pound of concrete 0.91 pounds of CO2.

The Biden administration raised the social cost of carbon (SCC) – the estimated financial cost of the economic and environmental damage from emitting one ton of carbon dioxide – to $51 per ton per year 2022of the Trump administration’s $10 per ton.

At 2204.62 pounds in a ton, this equates to $0.023 per pound, which is an SCC value of $0.021 for concrete.

However US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) report from November 2023 shows that the social cost is $190 per ton – 3.73 times President Biden’s SCC. Using the EPA’s numbers, the social cost of carbon is $0.086 per pound, which equates to an SCC of $0.078 per pound for concrete.

Sound Transit’s Gallagher said the ST2 project from Northgate to Lynnwood generated 64,000 tons of carbon, meaning the light rail has a carbon footprint estimated by the EPA to be worth $12.16 million.

Concrete weighs 150 pounds per cubic foot, a mile is 5,280 feet, and the route from Lynnwood to Everett is 16.3 miles long.

The return on the region’s carbon investment will depend on how fast and how large the area grows and how many people use the light rail. The Link line extension will save an estimated 14,000 tonnes of CO2 emissions from cars annually, equivalent to an SCC value of $2.66 million.

It will take about 4.6 years for the light rail to recoup its carbon and SCC investments. At the same time, Snohomish County’s population will continue to grow, making the fight to achieve carbon neutrality more difficult.

The final 18.1 miles to Everett could be more competitive than previously thought.

— By Rick Sinnett