SET UP:

A typical low pressure system with associated warm and cold fronts will form over the region on Wednesday and Thursday before the cold front exits the region overnight into Friday morning. This will set the stage for severe storms in the region, possibly bringing hail and damaging winds.

TIMING:

Thunderstorms spreading across the west late into Wednesday night could move into the region with some steam after midnight. Those showers and thunderstorms Thursday morning will weaken significantly, but scattered clouds and light rain could remain across the region well into Thursday afternoon. Still, a decent flow of low pressure from the south will maintain a steady supply of moisture and warmth, recharging our atmosphere through the afternoon.

Storms may emerge in the early afternoon near the outflow of morning activity, but this may be south of I-44 and miss large parts of our region. A better chance of storms developing is near the cold front, which will likely be near our northernmost counties. This looks to be our best chance for severe storms right now, although they may develop later in the evening. Of course, there is always the chance we could see more uncontrolled storms somewhere in between.

It is questionable where storms develop, but the concern is that the environment favors the development of severe weather.

It could also be a close call for many of us if we find ourselves caught between the two waves of storms. In a scenario where storms form south of central Missouri in the early afternoon and then struggle to develop along the cold front as upwelling weakens, we could miss severe weather.

EFFECTS:

As for Thursday’s storms, we are primarily concerned about hail and damaging winds, but the small chance of tornadoes cannot be ruled out.