BOCA RATON, Fla. (CBS12) — A new poll asking Floridians who they will support in the upcoming presidential election raises concerns that Florida could once again become a swing state.
The first FAU/Mainstreet Research USA poll of voters in the Sunshine State since Vice President Kamala Harris took office as the Democratic nominee shows Republican nominee Donald Trump’s lead among likely voters has dropped to three points. The former president’s lead is now half what it was in the last poll of Florida voters in June, when President Joe Biden topped the pack.
“The narrowing of the gap between Trump and Harris is consistent with the narrowing we are seeing in other states,” said Dr. Kevin Wagner, professor of political science and co-director of FAU’s PolCom Lab. “If this trend continues, we could see a tough election campaign in Florida.”
The gap was even wider in April, when Trump secured an eight-percentage-point lead among likely voters, pollsters found. However, the Democrats’ gain is not necessarily a loss for Republicans, as Trump’s support has remained stable during this period. According to the poll, Harris is edging closer to her opponent because she is managing to consolidate her base.
“Kamala Harris is restoring the traditional base of the Democratic Party, which includes women, minorities, younger voters and Democratic Party supporters,” said Dukhong Kim, Ph.D., associate professor of political science at FAU. “While Donald Trump is maintaining his own established base.”
Referendums are still not enough
Supporters of Florida’s two high-profile referendums face a tough time in the coming months, the poll also found. Both the amendment supporting some constitutional restrictions on abortion laws and the recreational marijuana proposal received support from 56 percent of likely voters.
Although each measure has majority support, they still lack the 60% approval needed to pass. Still, the analysis of the results in FAU’s statement offers cause for optimism. In April, just under half of likely voters said they would support the proposals.
In addition, pollsters found that many people have not yet made up their minds. Almost a quarter of those surveyed did not know how they would vote on the abortion question. On the marijuana question, almost one in six is still undecided.
In both cases, the number of undecided voters could push the amendment slightly above the 60 percent mark.
The presidential election also throws another wrench into the vote. In many cases, similar changes on emotionally charged issues like abortion and same-sex marriage were made during the midterm elections, resulting in higher voter turnout specifically for the issue in question.
However, with presidential elections taking place this year, many voters who would not normally vote in midterm elections will still go to the polls, even if they are not particularly emotionally affected by the outcome of the referendums.
“These voters, who don’t know how they would vote in the referendum, could decide either way in November,” said Luzmarina Garcia Ph.D., assistant professor of political science at FAU.
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