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The Chicago Bulls’ new win-total forecast is actually too good


The Chicago Bulls’ new win-total forecast is actually too good

The Chicago Bulls are supposed to be bad. Unlike in previous years, the postseason should not be the expected internal target. DeMar DeRozan and Alex Caruso are both gone. Josh Giddey and Matas Buzelis have both arrived. Add to that the signing of Jalen Smith, the five-year deal for Patrick Williams and the endless praise for Coby White, and the Bulls have made it clear that youth is their priority.

Still, the front office needs to do more to show it’s fully invested in a rebuild. Both Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic remain on the roster despite countless transfer rumors and reports. The two veterans could not only get in the way of the team’s young talent developing, but also leading to wins. And that’s bad news for a Bulls organization that needs to finish in the league’s bottom 10 to keep its 2025 first-round pick.

Tanking isn’t easy, especially when a strong draft class is coming up. Multiple teams are expected to enter the Cooper Flagg lottery over the course of the 2024-25 season. If the Bulls really want to be competitive The They have to put winning the races second. Unfortunately, a new forecast of overall wins suggests that this could be difficult for them.

The Chicago Bulls’ annoying overall win prediction

ESPN’s panel of experts has attempted to predict each team’s final record for the upcoming season. Despite the Chicago Bulls losing some influential veterans this summer, the team will end up in an all-too-familiar spot. Billy Donovan’s team finishes the play-in tournament as the No. 1 seed, joining the Indiana Pacers, Miami Heat and Atlanta Hawks. ESPN gives them a record of 30-52.

I couldn’t help but giggle in frustration when I saw that. There is virtually no worse outcome this year than ANOTHER play-in tournament. Some might argue that it respectable Experience for the Bulls’ young guys. But not really! Josh Giddey just played two rounds of postseason basketball, Jalen Smith appeared in an Eastern Conference Finals, and the Bulls’ young trio (Coby White, Patrick Williams, and Ayo Dosunmu) experienced the play-ins in two consecutive years. Will playing 9-on-10 really teach this group something it doesn’t already know?

Coby White and Ayo Dosunmu of the Chicago BullsCoby White and Ayo Dosunmu of the Chicago Bulls
© Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

What could easily exceed the value of one or two play-in games is another a lottery pick with great potential to factor into the equation. Given the lack of star talent on the team right now, the Bulls need as many tries as possible. As disgusting as I find that ESPN projection, I can’t necessarily say I disagree with it. This front office seems addicted to mediocrity. If they’re the 11th team in the East at the trade deadline, how do we know they won’t try to justify a push into the play-in tournament?

Even if they make keeping the pick their priority, I have my doubts about their ability to out-sell other front offices. Whether it’s Detroit, Charlotte, or Toronto, several teams in the East have shown that they (1) aren’t afraid and (2) know how to position themselves for more lottery wins. Again, tanking is hard and requires initiative!

The good news is that if the Bulls are able to get rid of either LaVine or Vucevic, I’ll feel much better that they can avoid that tightrope walk. The bad news is that this remains a pretty big “if.” Neither player has a market so far, and I fear the Bulls might not be able to take advantage of a market if one suddenly develops. We’ve seen them consistently overvalue their assets, and that could very well happen again if either LaVine or Vucevic have a strong start to the year.

So, yeah, I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t worried about the Bulls screwing up the start of this new era right away. If you want even more thoughts on all of this, I spoke with the guys at CHGO about it earlier this week. We covered the win total projection as well as a number of other offseason storylines.

Listen and relax with us!

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