Level 1: The Favorites
Caleb Williams, Marvin Harrison Jr.
For each of the last six seasons, a wide receiver or quarterback has been named Offensive Rookie of the Year. Looking at this rookie class, one quarterback and one receiver stand out from the crowd, and it appears that this trend will continue.
First-rounder Caleb Williams enters one of the best situations a first-rounder quarterback has had in years with the Chicago Bears. His supporting cast includes an elite trio of receivers and a solid offensive line. He should put up big numbers in his rookie year as the Bears battle for a wild-card spot. If they finish with a win, Williams will be a big reason why and have a good shot at the award.
Harrison Jr. looks to follow in the footsteps of Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, Garrett Wilson and Puka Nacua, who all had phenomenal rookie seasons, including OROY wins for Chase and Wilson. Harrison should immediately step in as Kyler Murray’s primary target in Arizona’s passing game, which could pull off a surprise season. Expectations are high for the Buckeye legend, but Harrison Jr. will be in a position to take home trophies in NFL honors if he can reach those heights with a 1,000-yard season.
Stage 2: The next men
Jayden Daniels, Malik Nabers, Bo Nix
It may be surprising that Daniels isn’t in the big leagues, but the Washington Commanders are simply one of the worst teams in football. The last player to win OROY on a team with five or fewer wins was Kyler Murray in 2019. Granted, Daniels and Murray have parallels as young talents, sharing the same playmaker, Kliff Kingsbury, in their rookie seasons. Robert Griffin III electrified Washington with his dual-threat play in 2012, leading the then-Redskins to a playoff appearance and earning OROY. Daniels will need even better stats to earn the award, as the Commanders face an uphill battle for the playoffs in the NFC East against Philadelphia and Dallas.
The New York Giants also have a recent OROY that Malik Nabers will be compared to in Odell Beckham Jr. Like the Commanders, the Giants likely won’t be a strong team in 2024. As a wide receiver, Nabers will get less blame (or credit) for his team’s success than Daniels. New York was 6-10 in 2014 when Beckham Jr. earned the OROY honor. Nabers, also an LSU alumnus, is already the Giants’ best offensive weapon and could lead all rookies in catches this year. He will have significant volume and could immediately emerge as one of the best young receivers in the NFL, just as former Tigers like Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase did.
Bo Nix has already earned his spot in the starting lineup in Denver and comes into the league with plenty of starting experience after a successful career at Auburn and Oregon. He will be paired with Sean Payton, a legendary offensive lineman (even if his career has seen better days), and will lead a competitive Broncos team. Their path to the playoffs is tough as the two back-to-back Super Bowl champions are in the same division, but the Chargers and Raiders’ expected down years present opportunities. Bo Nix has been hailed as a promising pro player and will need to be just that if Denver wants a chance at the playoffs. Mac Jones was the OROY runner-up in 2021 after leading the Patriots to a 10-7 season and a wildcard appearance. A similar result for Nix and the Broncos would put him in contention for the award.
Level 3: Outsider
Drake Maye, Ladd McConkey, Keon Coleman, Brock Bowers
These four players all have a clear path to a fantastic rookie season, but their teams won’t rely on them as much as the top-five names. Drake Maye was selected in the top three for a reason, but he may not start immediately ahead of Jacoby Brissett as the Patriots are going for the long haul at the quarterback position. Their offensive situation is among the worst in the league, making it difficult for Maye to put up strong stats. If he can shine despite the darkness around him, he could be a compelling candidate for the award.
Ladd McConkey and Keon Coleman are the only second-round wide receivers on this list, but they could become target hogs in their debut seasons. Both are already considered the most talented receivers on their teams and play alongside elite quarterbacks like Justin Herbert and Josh Allen. Every quarterback is looking for a reliable target who can take on a big role in their offense. McConkey and Coleman could become instant WR1s and put up huge numbers like we saw with Puka Nacua last year. Neither seems like a sure-fire talent like Harrison or Nabers, but their situations and skill sets offer great potential as rookies.
No tight end has ever won the Offensive Rookie of the Year Award, but if there’s anyone who can change that, it’s Brock Bowers. The former Georgia Bulldog was dominant in each of his three college seasons and is one of the most exceptional pass receivers to come into the league in recent years. He’ll need to have a historic rookie season to even have a chance at the OROY, as Sam LaPorta and Kyle Pitts both had great debut years and didn’t receive a single first-place vote. The Raiders’ offense isn’t the most exciting in the league, but Bowers has the opportunity to carve out a major role behind Davante Adams. Bowers needs at least 1,000 yards (like Pitts) AND ten touchdowns (like LaPorta) to have a strong chance at the OROY, but a player this talented should never be doubted.
Level 4: Longshots
Jonathon Brooks, Rome Odunze, Brian Thomas Jr., Xavier Worthy
No running back has won the OROY since Saquon Barkley in 2018 (Alvin Kamara also won a year earlier), and that drought will likely continue until 2025. Jonathon Brooks was the first off the board this year, but ended up with a weak offense in Carolina. Even if the Panthers take a step forward this year, Brooks will start the year recovering from a torn ACL and will have to earn starting spots from Chuba Hubbard. His second half could be OROY-worthy, but his season stats may not be enough to challenge the top quarterbacks and receivers.
Odunze, Thomas Jr. and Worthy are all solid first-round wide receiver prospects who will produce well but face stiff competition when it comes to establishing themselves as top targets in their offense. Odunze is likely the third option behind DJ Moore and Keenan Allen, limiting his chances. Even if Odunze dominates right away, it’s more likely that his quarterback, Caleb Williams, would benefit in the OROY race. Brian Thomas Jr. and Xavier Worthy both have veterans above them in the rankings but have outside chances to become the best receiver on their teams. Worthy will need to get off to a good start while Marquise Brown is injured to build confidence with Patrick Mahomes, but his record-breaking speed paired with Mahomes’ talent on the arm could be a lethal combination. Thomas Jr. was one of the most productive players in college football last year, even with Malik Nabers as a teammate, and could carve out a big role for himself as a deep and red zone threat. He could challenge as the touchdown leader among rookie wideouts.
Level 5: So you’re saying there’s a chance?
Michael Penix Jr., Trey Benson, Blake Corum, Spencer Rattler
These four players will likely need outside circumstances to get significant playing time in 2024 but have the potential to be stars. Michael Penix Jr. is the replacement for Kirk Cousins, who is recovering from a hamstring injury, in what could be an up-and-coming Atlanta offense. If Cousins goes down early, Penix Jr. could have the best stats among rookie signal-callers in Zac Robinson’s offense. Spencer Rattler has far less draft experience but flashed his outstanding talent at times in college and reportedly impressed the Saints in training camp. Derek Carr wasn’t necessarily a standout player in New Orleans. When Rattler is on the field, he’ll have plenty of opportunities to put up big numbers throwing to Chris Olave and Alvin Kamara.
Trey Benson was one of the best running backs in the draft and landed in a great offensive situation in Arizona, but his playing time could be limited this year. James Conner is still a three-down back and will fight hard to stay on the field. If Conner gets injured or significantly declines in his 29th season, Benson has the talent to be an explosive, hard-working running back for the Cardinals. Blake Corum had a successful career at Michigan, recording 3,737 yards and 58 touchdowns on the ground in four years (three as a starter). Kyren Williams was one of the league’s most productive players last year and was constantly on the field in Los Angeles. Sean McVay hasn’t been afraid to switch up his running game over the last five years. If Williams gets injured or simply falls out of favor, Corum could see a lot of use, especially in the red zone.
