Feel it? The final stretch is upon us. If you’re in a roto league, you’re probably fighting tooth and nail to make up ground in the all-important saves category. The same is true in real life, where clubs change hands in the midst of tight playoff races. The key is guessing correctly. This week, we’ll examine some bullpens in transition and use PLV to rank new and potential closer candidates.

If you’re new to PLV, you can find Nick’s introduction here.

Note: Statistics and PLV data are current until Monday, August 19th.

Emmanuel Clase

5.68 PLV | 762 parking spaces

Last week, the best pitcher reliever in baseball recorded four consecutive saves. You don’t need me or PLV to tell you he’s great, but let’s start by acknowledging one of the most dominant pitching performances we’ve seen since Jacob deGrom. What Clase is doing right now is remarkable; his 0.63 ERA and 0.66 WHIP speak for themselves. But In case you are wondering: Clase is number one in the PLV with 5.68 (at least 500 throws).

Griffin Jax is second at 5.60. PLVs are usually compressed, in this case the 0.08 gap between Clase and Jax serves as another way to illustrate the former’s brilliance; not that you needed it, I mean, my goodness, a 0.63 ERA. I’d say he has a outside Chance to win his second Mariano Rivera Award. Sure, there are still about six weeks left, but the real question is whether he can win the Cy Young Award. It’s a fun debate. Dennis Eckersley was the last AL Cy Young winner out of the bullpen 32 years ago. And just for fun, here’s a visualization of Clase tormenting hitters.

Seranthony Domínguez

5.25 PLV | 807 parking spaces

The race for the playoffs can create new opportunities for new and sometimes not-so-new faces. Seranthony Domínguez, who debuted in May 2018 and looked like one of baseball’s next great relievers, making 14 holds and 16 saves for the Phils. But then he got injured and struggled to regain his form. Six years later, he’s in Baltimore after a mid-season trade. Last Monday, O’s captain Brandon Hyde named Domínguez his main closer for the rest of the game. And sure enough, that same day, after making three saves, he caught the decisive pass to the Mets backstop Francisco Alvarez.

Domínguez’s slider and sinker profile is good. However, his four-seamer control looks questionable (94 plvLoc+; 100 is average). Of course, he’s the guy and you have to have him, but with the O’s in a tight race with the Yankees for the AL East, they may not give him much wiggle room.

However, the alternatives in the O’s bullpen are not great. Craig Kimbrel has fallen off a cliff after losing nearly two ticks on his fastball, a pitch he never really placed well to begin with. Domínguez could well keep the role of closer for the rest of the game, but if he falters, Yennier Cano (5.60 PLV | 826 throws) might be worth putting on your watch list; he has saved five games this year and his outstanding changeup has put him on par with Griffin Jax for second place in the PLV among all P with at least 500 pitches.

Ton Holmes

5.24 PLV | 860 parking spaces

The Yankees almost won 1-0 against the Tigers and Tarik Skubal last Sunday night at the Little League game in Williamsport, PA. But unfortunately, Holmes couldn’t convert. The tight race with the O’s for the AL East and Holmes’ 10th blown save could put him in trouble.

PLV isn’t a big fan of sinkers in general, so the mediocre rating of the right-hander’s go-to pitch isn’t too concerning. And actually, PLV likes his sinker more this year compared to last season (4.66 PLV), which is partly due to a small increase in velocity. The same goes for his slider and sweeper. His slider in particular looked significantly better (4.95 PLV last year) thanks to improved control (107 PlvLoc+).

Relievers are notoriously inconsistent and Holmes could be a prime example, especially as a sinkerballer. You know how it is. Sometimes the worm burners just find the gaps in the infield. This year his sinker has a BABIP of .381, a proud mark compared to .307 last season. PLVs’Lucky‘ is another way of looking at it. Holmes’ sinker has earned a +14 this year, so 14 more hits than PLV would have predicted. In other words, Holmes may have been the victim of an unfortunate coincidence.

I expect Holmes to keep the position because he has solid pitching quality metrics. But perhaps more importantly, the Yankees, like the O’s, lack a clear alternative. Lukas Weber has been one of their most effective relievers this year, but his PLV of 5.03 (1,076 throws) is about league average.

Tommy Kahnle was also successful, but his 4.93 PLV (542 throws) is a little suspect.

Jake Cousins (5.20 PLV | 410 pitches), whom the Yankees acquired from the White Sox for cash in March, made a save last Tuesday and might be worth keeping an eye on if Holmes continues to get into trouble.

Lucas Erceg

5.33 PLV | 694 parking spaces

James McArthur’s Problems caused the Royals to exchange for Hunter Harvey (5.18 PLV | 918 parking spaces) and Lucas Erceg. However, a back injury sent the former to the IL, leaving Erceg, who posted a four-out save on 8/14. Erceg’s four-seamer is nothing special, but remember when I said PLV isn’t a fan of sinkers in general? Erceg is quite the exception; his sinker is in the 95th percentile among RP at 5.70 PLV.

Michael Kopech

5.44 PLV | 916 parking spaces

Kopech earned his second save with the Dodgers in the 18th in a 2-1 win over the Cards. However, Dave Roberts will bench him for a few days after noticing a drop in his velocity. His velocity is critical to his success as he doesn’t have much in his arsenal behind his high-octane heater (95th percentile PLV under RP), so we’ll want to keep a close eye on his velocity in his next outing.

Kopech’s break prepared the ground for Evan Phillips (5.48 PLV | 674 pitches) and made his 16th save. Phillips slacked off a bit in the middle of the season, but he is back in form and has shown exceptional pitch quality; he is ninth in PLV among pitchers with at least 500 pitches. His sweeper is dynamite.

Daniel Hudson (5.14 PLV | 803) recorded his ninth save on 8/12 and his tenth on 8/20. In terms of pitch quality, he ranks a distant third; his slider is above average (5.23 PLV), but nowhere near Phillips’ sweeper.

And, hey, how about Alex Vesia (5.47 PLV | 839 pitches)? His last save was on July 6, so he’s not an option outside of hold leagues, but the left-hander has been nothing short of a star. His 5.60 PLV heater ranks in the 98th percentile among RP thanks to his induced vertical break (19.7″ | 100th percentile).

Edwin Uceta

5.36 PLV | 440 parking spaces

Pete Fairbanks’ injured Lat has got a lot of fantasy managers playing Rays roulette. I know what you’re thinking. Oh, joy. Yes, there’s a pretty good chance this will end up being a committee with guys like Lefty Colin Poche (4.99 PLV | 470 shots), who grabbed two saves and created opportunities here and there.

Garrett Cleavinger (5.19 PLV | 835 pitches) is another Rays left-hander who has finished three games. Manuel Rodriguez (4.98 PLV | 384 pitches) pitched well, albeit in a short sample. I’m sure I’m forgetting someone. Hey, maybe the Rays will call Hunter Bigge, which they had taken over from the Cubs, in Isaac Paredes act.

However, the interesting name to try would be Right-Handed Edwin Uceta. He has a sinker that has the unique ability to get whiffs (95th percentile SwStr%) thanks to a 99th percentile height-adjusted vertical approach angle and a 93rd percentile iVB. Uceta’s changeup is also interesting, with a 92nd percentile arm-side break.

Calvin Faucher

5.16 PLV | 851 parking spaces

The Tanner Scott And AJ Puk Trades left us wondering who could finish the games in Miami. Lefty Andrew Nardi (5.41 PLV | 874 pitches) seemed like an interesting gamble given his impressive stats and strikeout potential. Anthony Bender (5.39 PLV | 802 pitches) might have been another option; he showed good numbers despite mediocre results and saved six games two years ago before being put on ice along with TJ.

However, the Marlins have chosen Faucher, who picked up his third save last Sunday. Faucher’s best pitch is the cutter (5.59 PLV), which has shown a good glove-side break (81st percentile). Still, Faucher’s 14.2% K-BB is far from ideal, so I wouldn’t to surprised that Nardi gets a chance at some point.

BenJoyce

4.95 PLV | 463 parking spaces

Joyce hasn’t quite hit the benchmark we’re aiming for (500 pitches), but sometimes we have to make a few compromises. The 23-year-old right-hander earned his second save last week. Joyce’s heater averages an incredible 102 mph with a 98th percentile altitude-adjusted approach angle and a 90th percentile arm-side break.

However, his BB rate of 11.8% tells you all you need to know; he is a work in progress. Despite exceptional traits, Joyce’s Heater is dragged down by poor control (88 PlvLoc+). His slider just isn’t there yet (4.84 PLV), so he is on full throttle right now and is not taking a break. It will probably There will be some misses, but since the Angels play their entire game on the field, it makes sense to let him learn on the job as their future bullpen ace.

I admit, I Really want to ignore Hunter Strickland (5.21 PLV | 899 parking spaces) and we should probably do that too, But His slider reached a value of 95 percentile on the break on the glove side, so that’s at least something.

Porter Hodge

5.06 PLV | 450 parking spaces

Porter Hodge converted his first save opportunity on Tuesday after the Cubs Hector Neris. He has achieved an impressive K-rate of 31.0%, But The Hodge heater looks pretty shaky, mainly due to poor locations (88 PlvLoc+). He will likely need to succeed on the back of his sweeper, who has shown good horizontal break (77th percentile) while posting a PLV of 5.62. But, He only threw 450 shots, so the sample size is a little vague.

Jorge Lopez is the other name in the Cubs stable. He made a save on August 17th and is not much different than two years ago when he blocked John Duran of saves in Minnesota before being sent to Baltimore. His curveball (5.25 PLV) remains his best pitch, while his 21.4% K-rate makes him vulnerable to BABIP compared to the prototypical high-leverage reliever.

Photo by Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire | Featured image by Ethan Kaplan (@DJFreddie10 on Twitter and @EthanMKaplanImages on Instagram)