With severe flooding reported in several locations in southern Ontario this week, the question arises: does this mean we can expect record rainfall in this region this summer?

Before answering that question, it is important to note that this week’s flooding was largely due to upper-altitude winds that helped to direct a significant moisture anomaly toward southern Ontario.

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The significant moisture anomaly has caused severe flooding in several communities in Ontario.

On July 15, London experienced significant flooding. A weather balloon in Detroit, Michigan, sampled the atmosphere and found humidity levels at a whopping 186 percent of normal for the time of year.

When meteorologists at The Weather Network assess the water content of the atmosphere, a value above 40 mm generally indicates an impending flood risk.

This year there were several days with humidity over 50 mm.

Numerous convective systems have swept across the Midwest of the USA. The path of these storms is called the “Ring of Fire”.

Although these storm clusters tend to weaken as they approach Southern Ontario, the moisture content they contain has fueled the afternoon thunderstorm cycle. As the remaining moisture moves over the region during the afternoon hours, this excess moisture promotes the development of thunderstorms that can produce torrential rain and cause localized flooding.

The Great Lakes form its small-scale boundaries, which is why there was significantly more precipitation north of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Thunderstorms are most likely to form near these boundaries.

Check out these totals for the last 46 days. Yes, just in the middle of summer, we’ve already accumulated above-average summer precipitation amounts for London and Hamilton, Ontario.

We must also not forget the remnants of Hurricane Beryl, which swept through the state of Texas and brought heavy rainfall of more than 50 mm in a single day to several communities.

Due to climate change, the frequency and severity of floods like those seen this week in communities such as London, Burlington and Toronto are likely to increase.

Long-distance

It looks like we’ll enter the driest stretch of the summer in Southern Ontario on Wednesday. Some regions could see more than four dry days in a row, something Toronto hasn’t managed since June 1.

We’ll be watching the storm’s track move closer to Southern Ontario again later in the month, so enjoy the temporary, drier respite. Of course, we’ll need to keep a close eye on thunderstorm development along the lake breeze and convective storms moving in from the northwest, but better weather is on the way.

SEE: Why you need special flood insurance coverage in Canada

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Featuring files from Matt Grinter, a meteorologist at The Weather Network, and Nathan Howes, a digital reporter at The Weather Network.

Thumbnail courtesy of Madi Buttenham, taken in Burlington, Ontario.