Nataliya Gumenyuk: After a tough year, Ukrainians see hope and real change in the Kursk offensive

When the new Russian attack on the northern Ukrainian region of Kharkiv began in May, I travelled there to see how people were coping. Everywhere I saw posters showing firefighters and municipal workers at work and the slogan “Kharkiv invincible”. Residents were angry at the bombs falling on their heads, but alongside the fear there was also grim optimism and determination.

I spoke with Oleksandr Solomashchenko, whose organization helped 3,000 evacuees escape the new frontline areas. The usually cheerful and energetic Solomashchenko couldn’t stop crying as he thought of a family with a disabled child who reluctantly accepted his help and fled the area. I realized that invincibility does not mean not feeling pain or not being hurt. Solomashchenko’s emotions are symbolic of the many Ukrainians who are proud of how strong and resilient they are, but at this stage of the war are not ashamed to cry and admit that we are also vulnerable and tired.

When I returned to Kharkiv this week, I found the city safer and more cheerful. People are escaping the summer heat in local parks. Despite the ongoing fighting nearby, fewer guided bombs are being sent into Kharkiv these days.

The Kursk offensive changed things. For the first time, the battle took place on Russian soil – and it showed that Russia is not invincible. It boosted the morale of the Ukrainian people. A simple conversation with some soldiers confirms this.

But what counts for Ukrainians is not the mood but the practical impact of this idea: for example, the fact that the destruction of bridges in the Kursk region could lead to a slowdown in the flow of Russian resources to Ukraine.

The summer of 2024 was extremely tough, as Moscow managed to partially destroy Ukraine’s power grid. It’s hard to find a friend or colleague who would admit that they feel well rested and less tired after the summer holidays.

As the now-missing Ukrainian artist and soldier Yuri Stetskyk said, “War is not the end of life, but long and hard work.” Ukrainians view war as hard and necessary work, just as a firefighter or a surgeon would not abandon a rescue operation or an operation just because they are tired. Beyond strategic military successes, the Kursk offensive is seen as an important achievement that helps Ukrainians keep breathing, use the moment to redistribute resources, and place at least part of the burden of the war on the shoulders of Russian troops.

Olga Chyzh: Putin is under pressure and his options are dwindling

In one of the boldest maneuvers since the full-scale invasion of Russia, Ukrainian forces swept into Russia’s Kursk region and captured a significant portion of territory with astonishing ease. It took Moscow nearly two weeks to mobilize enough conscripts to slow Ukraine’s advance. But the damage is done, and the message is clear: the carefully orchestrated operation caught Vladimir Putin off guard. Once again, Russia’s FSB intelligence agency, the linchpin of his power, was left reeling.

That the FSB does not live up to its portrayal in Hollywood thrillers is not surprising. In authoritarian regimes, the rise of cadres is determined by loyalty, not talent. More tellingly – and a good sign for Ukraine – Putin appears to have learned little from his earlier misjudgments in the war. His arrogance is undiminished and he continues to navigate this conflict as if blindfolded.

The Kursk operation has shown how much Russia’s defense strategy is based on the West’s fear of escalation. Any breach of Russia’s so-called “red lines” – be it by tanks, aircraft or missiles – exposes Moscow’s threats as hollow. Even Putin seems to realize that his nuclear sabre-rattling has lost its effect.

At home, Putin may seem invulnerable. His political opponents are dead, in exile or in prison. But as Western-donated tanks roll into Russia, Putin is living his nightmare. Once revered as a master strategist who retook Crimea without firing a shot, his legacy now risks being reduced to the fact that he stumbled into a bloody quagmire. His FSB lieutenants may be at his side, their fates intertwined, but militarily he is running out of options.

Further mobilizations are unlikely to bring results. The rumors of transferring command to trusted confidants and the ongoing military purges are unlikely to improve Russia’s position on the battlefield. After all, manipulative maneuvers make bad generals. In classic Russian fashion, Putin’s last hope may be luck, but fate favors the prepared. And Ukraine has taken this lesson to heart.

Sergei Radchenko: Peace or victory still seem far away, but the Kursk offensive could change everything

When Russia began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, it was hard to imagine that the war would still be going on two and a half years later. Despite all the death and destruction we have witnessed, the front lines have barely moved during that time.

As fighting continues and even intensifies, the prospects for peace seem unlikely. The familiar adage that all wars end in a negotiated peace obscures a more complex reality. Wars can – and often do – end in defeat for one side, and negotiations, even if they get underway at all, can take years. What counts in such situations is the resilience of each side and the ability of each government to withstand domestic pressure to sue for peace.

Vladimir Putin is confident he can continue the war and is in no hurry to start negotiations. Part of this is sheer hubris, which has continued even after Kursk. Part of it is calculation. Having invested so much in this war, Putin may feel he has little to lose. He has already shed a lot of blood and money. He has subjected Russia to Western sanctions that are unlikely to be lifted. He is eager to reap the dividends that will help justify this horrendous cost to the Russian people.

And while he may not be particularly good at waging war, we are fairly of the opinion that he has achieved excellent results in brainwashing and rallying much of the Russian public behind his militant imperialism.

You often hear that Putin is waiting for the outcome of the US elections or that he hopes that Donald Trump, if elected, will abandon Ukraine. In fact, Putin is benefiting most from the general political paralysis we have seen in recent congressional debates on aid to Ukraine. What is working in his favor is the uncertainty of Europeans, who are still looking over their shoulders to see what the US will or will not do about Ukraine.

Europe itself is hopelessly divided between those who have the ambition to take a more forceful approach to Ukraine but perhaps do not have the means to do so (e.g. the Baltic states and Poland) and those who have the means but evidently do not have the ambition (e.g. Germany). This kind of division plays into Putin’s hands and reinforces his determination to take whatever he can get in Ukraine.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy sees through Putin’s game and probably hopes that by ordering the latest invasion of Kursk, he will not only boost waning Ukrainian morale, but also turn the tables and force the Russians to finally negotiate. He must show that he, like Putin, can continue this war for as long as necessary.

They can’t both be right.

Andrey Kurkov: Any decisive action seems impossible, but there is no despair

Another delay in the delivery of military aid by our allies has made me wonder if some of these delays are deliberate. The war drags on. For the third time, Ukraine has had to celebrate Independence Day under rocket and drone fire and is riveted to reports from the front lines of the Russian-Ukrainian war.

There is a strong sense of total slowdown. It seems impossible to imagine any dynamic action – anything that could suddenly end this war or radically change its course for the better.

Ukrainian forces are advancing in the Kursk region and promising to withdraw in due course. The Russian army is advancing in the Donbass but will not voluntarily give up any captured territories, at least not until there is a regime change in Moscow.

For a brief moment, the flicker of the Kursk operation brought Ukrainian society to life, but now we are frozen again, watching with bated breath the advance of the Russian army in the east.

Nevertheless, morale remains stable. There is no sign of depression or despair. Ukrainians who have chosen to stay in their country are hoping for a positive outcome to the war. They may be suspicious of the concept of “victory” and “complete liberation of the occupied territories,” but if you ask them, their patriotic self-censorship will nip in the bud any doubt about an eventual Ukrainian victory.

Every Ukrainian is resisting the enemy with everything they can – the military with weapons, the civilians with a stubborn belief in victory. A belief that turns Independence Day into an almost religious celebration.

Before the war, Independence Day seemed to many – myself included – to be a much more formal occasion, organized by the state more for the media than for the people. Although every time there were major and politically challenging events, such as the Orange Revolution, the significance of the day grew. Now it is definitely the day that all Ukrainians reflect on and hold dear to their hearts.