This post follows the counts for the close seats still in contention following the Country Liberal Party’s landslide victory.

This post is sorted so that the most recent updates are at the top of the page.

Sunday 3pm

Fannie Bay – Labor gained 30 votes over the Greens by counting 258 postal votes. The Greens now lead Labor by 38 votes at the crucial point in the count that will determine which party will come second and the other party will vote on preference. For a discussion of the race for Fannie Bay, see the post.

Sunday 2pm

Johnston – Independent Justine Davis’ lead over Labor candidate Joel Bowden in the decisive count increases from 162 to 165 votes. For an explanation of the count, see the Johnston table below.

Casuarina – Darwin EVC edged CLP 96-92 and the first Postals pulled away with a 121-93 win. CLP won.

Night Cliff – 176 postal votes were added, putting the Greens 74 votes ahead of the independent May. As explained in the article, Labor candidate Natasha Fyles is well on track to keep her seat as long as the Greens stay ahead of May.

Sunday 10am

Four seats are still close, but in the case of Casuarina, today’s further count should confirm the CLP’s victory. The CLP’s narrow lead in Barkly was increased today by the counting of postal votes.

Today the Northern Territory Electoral Commission will count the votes from polling stations whose votes were not counted on Saturday night, as well as counting postal votes returned by Friday. Below I will set out the position at the end of election night for each seat.

Fannie Bay

CLP candidate Laurie Zio leads with 39.8%, but the winner will be determined by whether Suki Dorras-Walker (Greens) or MP Brent Potter (Labor) comes second. Dorras-Walker currently leads by 68 votes and if she stays ahead and receives at least 70% of Labor preferences, she will win. But if Labor comes second, Potter will win based on Green preferences.

Independent Leonard May has 128 votes and will be distributed first. How this will affect the position of Dorras-Walker and Potter is unknown.

Saturday’s Labor-CLP preference count showed Labor winning with 51.7% of the vote. The combined preferences of independents and Greens go to Labor with 74.1% and CLP with 25.9%.

Today, the 268 postal votes received by Friday will be counted. Based on past trends, these votes would be expected to favour Labour over the Greens, but not enough to push Potter into second place at this stage.

Over the next few days, 194 votes cast before the election at Early Voting Centres in Palmerston and other parts of the Northern Territory remain to be counted, as well as the rest of the returned postal votes. A total of 490 postal votes were cast. It is not known how many more postal votes and declaration votes still need to be returned and checked for counting.

Johnston

CLP candidate Gary Strachan leads with 34.9% but cannot win. We have a two-party preference count between Strachan and Bowden, which would give Bowden 52.9% preference. The preferences for Davis and Barton, if excluded, go to Labor at 68.9% and CLP at 31.1%.

If Bowden comes third and is excluded, his preferences will swing heavily against the CLP and easily vote for Justine Davis. The question is whether Davis will come second. She is currently 168 votes ahead of Bowden and is likely to pull even further ahead if the fourth-placed Green candidate is excluded.

In my opinion, it is difficult to imagine Bowden winning. Today, 174 absentee ballots must be counted. Next week, 163 EVC absentee ballots must be counted. 359 absentee ballot packets have been sent out. It is unknown how many absentee ballots will still be returned and how many absentee ballots have still been cast.

However outstanding many of these may be, they are unlikely to put Bowden ahead in the race for second place, and Justine Davis will win on Labor preferences.

Casuarina

Casuarina is a traditional two-party contest between CLP and Labor, with CLP’s Khoda Patel leading Labor incumbent Lauren Moss by 113 votes or 51.7%.

Today, 226 postal votes and 199 votes from the Darwin Early Voting Centre will be counted. The count of these votes is expected to confirm the CLP’s victory.

Night Cliff

CLP candidate Helen Secretary cannot win this seat. A two-party preference count has been released showing Natasha Fyles winning with more than 65% of the two-party preference vote.

But Helen Secretary will not come second. She will be overtaken by the Greens’ Kat McNamara or possibly Mililma May. And this is where the CLP’s voting policy becomes important.

The CLP voting aid recommended a third preference for May, a fourth for Labour, but the Greens were in last place.

If May is ahead of McNamara after further counts or due to Mamouzello’s preferences, May will likely benefit from CLP preferences and threaten Natasha Fyles. However, if May drops out, McNamara will be overtaken as minister and Fyles will benefit from CLP preferences, unless voters ignore the CLP’s recommendation entirely.

So the crucial difference in the table above is between McNamara and May, namely 77 votes. As long as McNamara is ahead of May, Natasha Fyles is the favorite to win Nightcliff.

Around 186 postal votes are expected to be added to the count today.