In what is quickly becoming a trend, Vice President Kamala Harris And Senator Bob Casey Jr. received more good polling news when the latest Franklin & Marshall College poll was released on Thursday.
Harris has a three-point lead over the former president Donald Trump46-43%, although the difference is within the margin of error of +/-3.8. It is the fourth consecutive poll of Keystone State voters that has the vice president ahead of Trump in the final week.
Casey has extended his lead over the Republican challenger Dave McCormick since the last F&M poll in March. Pennsylvania’s oldest senator has a 48% to 36% lead – five percentage points higher than in previous polls. It’s only the second time in the last six PA polls that Casey has received less than 50% support, while McCormick’s is the lowest percentage a neutral polling group has found since May.
president
Harris’ three-point lead over Trump continues the trend in favor of the Democrat. Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 6% of respondents said they did not know, while 3% said they did not know.
Nearly 8 in 9 respondents (87%) said they were “absolutely sure” who they would vote for, while only 1 in 8 (12%) said they were “still undecided.” Among the undecided, 27% leaned toward Harris, while 23% preferred Trump.
Harris won large votes from women (52-39%), voters under 35 (57-21%), and voters with college degrees (61-30%). Trump’s vote share came from men (50-39%), voters over 55 (49-43%), and voters with a high school diploma or less (59-29%).
Independents also tended toward Harris by a margin of seven percentage points (40-33%).
One in seven (14%) said a candidate’s economic policies were most important in deciding who to support for office. Twelve percent said “honesty/integrity/good character” was their basic requirement, while 10% said “not Trump/not a Republican/does not support Trump” was their limit.
More respondents said Harris best understood the concerns of ordinary Americans (46-42), was closest to their views on values issues such as abortion and same-sex marriage (49-40), had the character and judgment needed to be president (46-38), and was the most honest and trustworthy (45-32). Trump received higher ratings on “preparedness for the economy” (51-39) and “better handling the office of commander in chief” (47-40).
The percentage of respondents who said they were serious about Trump’s “actions to stay in power after the 2020 election” was 55%, the lowest since F&M first asked the question.
US Senate
Casey’s 12-point lead matches his highest in the F&M poll, matching the 47% to 35% lead he had in February 2024. Thirteen percent said they did not know who they would vote for. McCormick received 20% support among the leaning, while Casey received just 12%. More people think the senior senator’s job has been excellent or good (38%) than at any other point in an F&M poll since October 2018 (43%).
Women (53-30%), young voters (60-17%), and people with college degrees (61-28%) overwhelmingly support Casey. McCormick does not fare particularly well in most groups, with the exception of those with a high school diploma or less (47-29%) and “born-again” or evangelical Christians (67-15%).
governor
Governor Josh Shapirowho finished second on the Democratic ticket for vice president, has the highest approval rating for a Pennsylvania government leader at this point in a first term since Governor Tom Ridge at 52%. More women (58%) than men (45%) approve of Shapiro’s work, while approval among those with a four-year college degree (65%) is nearly two-thirds. He also gets high marks from the Philadelphia and southeastern Pennsylvania regions (62%), versus just 36% from the northwestern region of the state.
Dr. Well-being
Forty-three percent of respondents to the poll of 920 likely voters said that “things are generally going in the right direction in Pennsylvania” – the highest percentage in the F&M poll since October 2020 (43%). The 47% of those who “feel like things are going in the wrong direction” is also the lowest since that 2020 poll.
Main problem
Not surprisingly, for the fifth consecutive year, respondents see the economy/finance as the most important issue facing Pennsylvania today (23%). This number is the highest since an October 22 poll (28%). Government/politics remained the second choice (11%), followed by education (10%).
The crime rate, which was 19% in April 2023, came in fourth place at 6%.
Finance
Twenty-one percent of respondents said they and their family would be better off financially in a year, while 20 percent said they would be “worse off.” It’s the second survey in a row to find that more people feel they would be better off than worse off.
Miscellaneous
- Students’ access to mobile phones during school hours – 12% in favour, 84% against
- Sunday hunting – 49% for, 34% against
- Open primaries – 77% for, 20% against
- Republicans – Trump Republicans (45%), Traditional Republicans (43%)
- Democrats – Progressive (42%), Centrists (38%)
- Regulation of gun ownership – 60% for, 37% against
- Abortion – 89% legal under some or all circumstances, 9% illegal under all circumstances
Work performance
- President Joe Biden – 35% excellent or good, 64% mediocre or bad
- Casey – 38% excellent or good, 46% fair or poor
- Governor Josh Shapiro – 51% excellent or good, 40% mediocre or bad
Affordability
- Biden – minus 17 (41-58)
- Trump – minus 12 (44-56)
- Harris – minus 6 (46-52)
- Casey – plus 7 (43-36)
- McCormick – minus 6 (31-37)
The poll results presented in this publication are based on the results of interviews conducted from July 31 to August 11, 2024. The interviews were conducted at the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College. The data included in this publication represent the responses of 920 registered Pennsylvania voters, including 411 Democrats, 378 Republicans, and 131 Independents.
The sampling error for this survey is +/- 3.8 percentage points when the design effects from weighting are taken into account.
