In light of the worsening crisis with starting pitchers, Major League Baseball is discussing possible rule changes to combat the problem. One of its most important proposals is the radical concept of a six-innings requirement.

The idea has gained momentum in recent years as starters are taken off the roster earlier than ever before and pitching injuries increasingly become an existential threat to the game. Last week, ESPN was the first broadcaster to report that MLB has stepped up its efforts in this area, but acknowledged that effective rules have barely progressed beyond the embryonic stage.

The foundation, however, would focus on a six-inning minimum for starters, with, of course, the need to build in some conditions such as reaching the 100-pitch threshold, allowing four earned runs, or an injury. These are very basic guidelines, but could ultimately lead to the framework incorporating a new set of rule changes.

As for the schedule, don’t expect us to return to the pitchers’ duels of the late 20th century anytime soon. We’re in a different universe now than the days when Doc Gooden, Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux or Pedro Martinez refused to give up the baseball during those lucky feats of one-on-one combat — and violently manipulating games to get back there is likely to be a bumpy process.

Take the pitch clock, for example. It has been a remarkable success, speeding up the pace of games even better than MLB probably expected. Before these rules were implemented at the start of the 2023 season, they had been talked about for more than a decade, and they only entered the testing phase in 2014 in the Arizona Fall League, the lowest entry-level division of MLB’s minor league laboratory.

The reason? The players’ association routinely pushed back the clock for years, arguing that it disrupted pitchers’ routines and, as a result, negatively impacted their performance. Ultimately, the pitch clock — along with the infield shift ban and larger bases — became official when MLB used its majority on the competition committee to enforce the rules (all four players on the 11-member panel voted against the clock and shift ban).

So what can one reasonably expect from the proposed six-inning rule? Well, for starters, there’s a lot of experimentation going on in the minor leagues, and MLB has been trying to tweak its automated ball striking system (ABS) there for several years without having the robots ready for prime time yet. While Commissioner Rob Manfred has definitely been encouraged by the high marks he’s received for his recent rule changes, any further tinkering with the pitching staff is a significant undertaking.

While everyone seems to agree on the need for action, the methods are still open to discussion. Changing the use of starters not only impacts major league rosters, but also affects the entire organization. A six-inning rule is likely to have a far greater impact on the sport than the pitch clock, and for that reason both sides will need to be cautious going forward.

David Stearns, president of baseball operations for the Mets, said Friday that these “initiatives” have been discussed at industry meetings for years now, and while he definitely supports these big steps, he acknowledged it will likely be a lengthy process.

“I think we’re a long way from fully implementing something as drastic as a six-inning rule,” Stearns said. “I think we’ll probably have to go through iterations, do testing and eventually spend development time.

“But I think all of these discussions – whether it’s an innings minimum, a batter face minimum, a pitch number minimum – are worthwhile discussions and that we’ve shown as an industry that we can implement seemingly drastic changes and that it improves our game. So I think we should embrace that and be encouraged to continue to try to improve our game.”

There is no contradiction here. The pitch clock and its associated rules have, over the course of just 1 1/2 seasons, reduced the average time of a nine-inning game from 3 hours and 3 minutes in 2022 to 2:36 this year, a revolutionary drop. Larger bases and limiting pickoff throws to first base have increased the number of successful steals for each team from 0.51 per game in 2022 to 0.73 this season.

MLB believes it can ultimately rely on ABS to not only improve strike zone accuracy, but also adjust it to improve offensive performance, as the strikeout rate remains too high, reducing the number of balls put in play (and thus the entertainment value).

With those plans in full swing, it’s only logical that MLB would now turn its attention to the starting pitcher problem, which is almost as financial as it is functional. According to Spotrac.com, MLB had 151 starting pitchers on the injured list as of Friday, out for a total of 11,479 days and costing a whopping $403.5 million. The next best position? Relief pitchers, 182 of whom were on the injured list, out for 12,514 days and costing $130.6 million. In MLB’s eyes, that’s a lot of money for nothing in return.

From a playing perspective, the MLB average for innings per start this season is 5.3, compared to 5.1 in 2023 and 5.0 in 2021, but that’s still well below the discussed six-inning target. In reality, it shouldn’t be that extreme. Atlanta’s 2023 rotation averaged 6.1 innings for a full season, but the leader this year is the Mariners (5.84). The last time the MLB overall reached that number was 2014, before starter innings steadily declined from then on.

Of the 148 pitchers who have made 10 starts this season, only 16 (11%) have averaged six innings — an idea of ​​how far MLB still has to go in this regard. Topping that list is Logan Gilbert of the Mariners (6.44), followed by Seth Lugo of the Royals (6.37) and Logan Webb of the Giants (6.32).

And changing the mindset of starters from the earliest days of their development, as early as high school, could take a decade after MLB has built a culture of high-velocity pitchers. It’s impossible to suddenly and spontaneously pivot and condition the current Generation K to throw instead of throwing with poor contact to get longer in the game.

Someone like Maddux would be ideal in MLB’s eyes, as the Hall of Famer averaged 6.77 innings per start over his 23-year career, with a fastball that clocked in at just over 90 seconds. His efficiency and durability were Maddux’s trademarks, not to mention how quickly he struck out opposing batters with poor contact.

But MLB needs to recognize how difficult it will be to artificially create such games in the future. As confident as Manfred is after his recent rule changes, this six-inning gambit will be the toughest challenge he faces yet.

David Lennon is an award-winning columnist, a voter for the Baseball Hall of Fame, and has covered six no-hitters, including two perfect games.