Japan predicts that the probability of a mega earthquake in the next 30 years is 70 to 80 percent (representative).

Tokyo:

Japan on Thursday lifted its warning of a higher-than-usual risk of a major earthquake, a week after a strong quake on the edge of the Nankai Trough seafloor zone prompted the government to issue the first megaquake warning in its history.

Citizens can now return to their normal lives as no abnormalities were observed in the seismic activity of the Nankai Trough on Japan’s Pacific coast over the past week, said Yoshifumi Matsumura, state minister for disaster management.

A panel of experts at the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) issued a warning on August 8 that there was a “relatively higher probability” of a magnitude 9 Nankai Trough megaquake after a magnitude 7.1 earthquake struck the country’s southwest.

Although the warning was not a definitive prediction, the government urged residents in many western and central regions to review their evacuation procedures in the event of major earthquakes and tsunamis.

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has cancelled a diplomatic trip to Central Asia and Mongolia over the weekend to give priority to disaster response.

On August 9, an earthquake measuring 5.3 on the Richter scale struck eastern Japan near Tokyo. The epicenter, however, was outside the Nankai Fault Zone, where the JMA indicated the possibility of a megaquake. Damage was minimal, and only three minor injuries were reported.

Central Japan Railway ended its week-long precautionary measure to reduce the speed of trains near the coast, but the risk of another natural disaster from approaching Typhoon Ampil forced the company to cancel bullet trains between Tokyo and Nagoya on Friday.

Japan estimates that the probability of a Nankai Trough mega-earthquake in the next 30 years is 70 to 80 percent.

In the worst case scenario, the government estimates that a mega-quake in the Nankai Trough and a subsequent tsunami disaster could kill 323,000 people, destroy 2.38 million buildings and cause economic damage of 220 trillion yen (1.50 trillion dollars).

Japan is one of the countries most prone to earthquakes in the world. A magnitude 9 earthquake in 2011 killed more than 15,000 people. The earthquake triggered a devastating tsunami and the meltdown of three reactors at a nuclear power plant in northeastern Japan.

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