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Jacksonville Jaguars in the bottom half of the NFL


Jacksonville Jaguars in the bottom half of the NFL

The Jaguars coaching staff has something to prove this season, at least in the eyes of ESPN’s Benjamin Solak.

In his ranking of all NFL coaching staffs ahead of the 2024 season – “It’s about driving optimization on any given Sunday while keeping a long-term eye on development,” and not necessarily wins and losses, he wrote – Solak ranked head coach Doug Pederson and his Jacksonville staff 18th on Thursday.

He cited the decline in the Jaguars’ offense last season compared to the year before as the main reason, as Pederson has a reputation as a respected playmaker from his time as head coach of Philadelphia’s Super Bowl-winning team.

Pederson delegated these duties to Press Taylor, who coached the Eagles with him last season.

Pederson is one of only three head coaches on this list to have won a Super Bowl in the last 10 years. The other two (Andy Reid, Sean McVay) have teams that are in my top 5. And here are the Jaguars, all the way down at number 18.

Pederson didn’t do much of what made him successful in his early years in Philadelphia (2016-20) in Jacksonville. Back then, he was at the height of the run-pass option wave, which made the offense easier for his quarterbacks, but now the Jaguars are asking Trevor Lawrence to run a fairly traditional West Coast offense without many of the bells and whistles other quarterbacks may enjoy. They still run RPOs, utilize play-action, and send players on the move, but none of it is used as a weapon in the way elite offenses in today’s NFL do.

Taylor, who has long been linked to Pederson, has been the subject of frustrations on offense. He took over play-calling in 2023 and looks set to keep it in 2024, although the offense’s success rate, points per drive and expected points per game all dropped once he was on the headset. Notable was a huge drop in late attempts, where Pederson’s offenses have typically excelled: In 2022, the Jaguars ranked ninth in third-down conversion rate and 15th in fourth-down conversion rate. In 2023, they were 17th and 26th, respectively.

Jacksonville’s decline in offensive statistics was also reflected in the results.

The Jaguars’ offense dropped to a slightly above-average 13th place in the NFL in yards (339.5) and points (22.2) per game in 2023, after finishing 10th in those areas under Pederson the year before (357.4 and 23.8, respectively).

Jacksonville’s yardage dropped 27.7 yards per game, from 14th to 24th in the league. The Jaguars’ total yards per game dropped half a yard (from 8th to 15th) and their turnover rate increased by eight (from 14th to 5th).

The Jaguars nearly matched their 2022 points-per-game average through the first six games of last year before quarterback Trevor Lawrence suffered the first of three injuries he endured during the game and four he sustained during the season (knee, ankle, concussion and shoulder).

Jacksonville averaged 20 points per game after leading receiver Christian Kirk suffered a season-ending core muscle injury in Week 13.

As long as Taylor maintains his role as playmaker, the Jaguars are relying on Lawrence and Kirk to return to full health and a few personnel changes to get their offense back on track.

The new additions include free agent signings center Mitch Morse and wide receiver Gabe Davis, as well as first-round draft pick Brian Thomas Jr. Davis and Thomas replace Calvin Ridley, who signed as a free agent with Tennessee, and Zay Jones, who was released; Morse replaces Luke Fortner as Jacksonville’s starting snapper.

Solak shared his belief that Jacksonville’s offense can recover as long as Pederson is heavily involved in the unit’s strategy development.

Solak praised Jacksonville’s offseason change of defensive coordinator when Pederson replaced Mike Caldwell with Ryan Nielsen in February, saying the head coach was able to draw on the strengths he showed this season with Philadelphia.

I still think Pederson is a good player manager and has a solid offensive system, but he needs to be more active to revitalize that offense — and he can do that. Nielsen, his new defensive coordinator, was one of the pleasant surprises in last year’s coaching carousel. As a first-year DC for the Falcons, he got significant overachievements out of a thin roster. I expect big things in Jacksonville, where he has a little more talent to work with.

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