The Israelis are preparing for a retaliatory strike by Iran as various sources, including US intelligence, say a coordinated operation by Iran and its allied armed groups appears “increasingly likely” in the coming days.
Almost two weeks have passed since Iran announced a “tough” and “strict” response to the assassination of the Hamas leader in Tehran. Several media outlets have speculated about the timing and nature of the Iranian attack, citing anonymous sources in Iran, Israel or the US. Most of these speculations have proven to be inaccurate, but a “response” seems to be set before the end of the week.
“(The attack) could take place this week,” White House national security spokesman John Kirby told reporters on Monday, reiterating the US position calling for de-escalation.
In Israel, however, few seem optimistic that the American message will be heard in Tehran. The Israeli military is said to be “on high alert for attack and defense,” while there are reports that Iran has taken “significant preparatory measures” similar to those in April, when dozens of missiles and kamikaze drones were fired at Israel.
On Monday, Israeli army spokesman Daniel Hagari said his country was monitoring developments in Iran. “We have very comprehensive attack plans and are fully prepared to execute them,” he added. The Israeli military is on high alert, but there was no change in public precautions as of Monday evening local time.
Although most intelligence and military assessments make an attack seem more likely, governments and diplomats continue to make great efforts to dissuade Iran from its plans or at least to “limit” the scope of a retaliatory strike.
A Washington Post report on Monday suggested that such a “best-case scenario” may not be as far-fetched as some had feared. “We were told (by Iran) that it would be a limited response” because Tehran “does not want to escalate the war,” the report quoted an Iraqi lawmaker close to the Iran-backed militants as saying. The Post also claimed that Iranian officials in “private meetings” had urged caution and a “balance” between a show of force and the risk of full-scale war in the region.
It is expected that Iran-aligned armed groups (the Axis of Resistance) will be involved in the retaliatory operation. The groups in Iraq and Syria are reportedly planning attacks on US bases in those countries.
These groups appear to feel compelled to do so after several leaders and commanders, including Haniyeh and Fuad Shukr of Hezbollah, were killed in Israeli strikes over the past two weeks. “We are confident that Iran and Lebanese Hezbollah will respond to Israel’s actions,” the Palestinian Islamic Jihad’s envoy in Tehran said on Monday. He added that Israel’s actions “deserve a decisive response.”
Some Middle East observers believe the “reaction” could be mitigated by Iran’s stated willingness to avoid a full-scale war and the potentially serious consequences it could bring.
On Monday, the leaders of Britain, France and Germany called on Iran to hold back its retaliatory plans and reminded Iranian leaders of the wider consequences of such an attack for the country. “We call on Iran and its allies to refrain from attacks that would further escalate regional tensions and jeopardize the possibility of agreeing a ceasefire and the release of the hostages.”
