Summary

• For Dwayne Johnson, “Red One” is a risky bet on box office success, as there are doubts about the film’s success given its recent box office slump.
• With a massive budget of $250 million, Red One needs to gross at least $500 million to be considered a financial success.
• Despite potential difficulties with “Red One,” Dwayne Johnson has a surefire hit in store with “Moana 2,” which will be released in theaters shortly thereafter.

Redness should be Dwayne Johnson’s next big blockbuster hit, but I would be shocked if he managed to end his current losing streak at the box office. Once known as the “franchise Viagra” and used to financially leverage IP, The Rock became a one-man solution to struggling franchises and blockbusters over the years. His enduring popularity with audiences helped Redness his latest attempt to launch a new, original franchise. The Christmas-themed blockbuster comes from Amazon Studios and is set to hit theaters exclusively in November 2024, further testing Dwayne Johnson’s box office credibility.

The Rock is no stranger to delivering huge box office hits with original ideas or films based on intellectual properties that would not have been tackled otherwise. While I didn’t like every film, like San Andreas, Rampageor skyscraperthey are clear examples of how his star power works wonders at the box office. It’s still easy to see him as a box office-winning actor who revived several franchises and found success outside of them, even with The Rock’s biggest box office flops. But after the last few years, I have doubts that he can do it with Redness.

Dwayne Johnson hasn’t starred in a major box office hit since 2019

He is in a crisis

The cold, hard truth for Dwayne Johnson is that his reputation as a box office hit has faded in recent years. The last time I can honestly say he was the star of a major blockbuster that did well at the box office was in 2019. That year he delivered two notable hits, Fast & Furious presents: Hobbs & Shaw And Jumanji: The Next Levelwhich both grossed over $750 million worldwide. That was the end of a dominant run of about six years in which his only real misstep was in 2017 Baywatch.

Since 2019, Dwayne Johnson hasn’t starred in a film that lived up to his reputation. That’s partly due to COVID-19 and the closure of theaters, but also the rise of streaming and poorly reviewed blockbusters. Johnson’s losing streak at the box office officially began with Jungle CruiseRelease in 2021. The live-action Disney film based on the theme park ride grossed only $210 million on a $200 million budget. Although it was released on Disney+ (via Deadline), it still represents a financial loss.

The more surprising development for me was that Dwayne Johnson’s losing streak continued with two DC films in 2022. DC Super Pets League grossed $200 million at the box office, which likely means it broke even. But that total was still disappointing considering the DC branding, the star-studded voice cast, and the fact that animated films can often achieve much bigger successes thanks to their family-friendly entertainment nature. It only got worse with Black AdamBox office revenues amounted to $390 millionleading to conflicting reports about the film’s profitability or failure.

Fast X is Dwayne Johnson’s most successful film since 2019, but he only appeared in the post-credits scene

To put Dwayne Johnson’s losing streak into perspective: He is currently in the middle of his longest losing streak in over a decade without starring in a film that grossed over $400 million. The last time he didn’t earn $400 million for more than two years was before joining Fast & Furious and became a star who could attract so much business. In addition, four out of five films in which he appeared before Jungle Cruise reached this milestone, with skyscraperThe only exceptions were the $300 million – and that was still enough to be profitable.

Red One looks like a risky blockbuster bet on Dwayne Johnson

The film is not a guaranteed hit

After watching Dwayne Johnson’s recent box office success, I’m quite surprised that Amazon Studios is betting on Redness as a theatrical release. That would have made sense when Johnson was still at the peak of his powers. An action movie blockbuster for Christmas with Chris Evans in the lead role and Johnson back with his “Jumanji” Film director Jake Kasdan sounds like a success on paper. I know I was excited when it was first announcedHowever, the trailers, behind-the-scenes reports and numerous delays were anything but encouraging.

What is really puzzling about Amazon’s Redness release schedule is that they had an easy way to avoid the film being viewed as a potential box office flop. The original plan for the film was to release it exclusively as a streaming release on Prime Video in 2023. I have no doubt Redness would have been a huge hit on Prime Video because families could watch it together over the holidays. Now the bet is that Johnson will draw millions of people to theaters instead. That’s a risky bet, considering how Johnson’s last few films have fared.

Red One’s huge $250 million budget only makes things worse

The bar for success is high

Somehow, RednessThe outlook for has also worsened over time, largely due to reports that RednessThe budget of is $250 million, if not more, after various delays. I wouldn’t be so concerned about the cost if the film was still running directly on Prime Video, as Huge budgets for star-studded streaming action movies are pretty common now. But now that Redness is released in theaters, its box office returns are judged on its own merits, without regard to the value the film later has for the studio on Prime Video.

This means that Redness must gross at least $500 million at the box office for anyone who can realistically call the film a financial success for Johnson or Amazon. It is commonly said that a film needs to double its budget to break even, while anything significantly above that will make it profitable. I would completely understand Amazon’s thinking Redness could make that much money in theaters if the film had been released between 2013 and 2019. But it’s 2024 and Johnson is in crisis, so the $250 million production will likely be a major flop at the box office.

The only Dwayne Johnson films that have grossed $500 million or more are “Moana,” his “Jumanji” films, and all of his appearances in “Fast & Furious.”

Dwayne Johnson has a better box office bet in store after Red One

He returns to a big hit

If Redness If the film crashes and burns at the box office, as I suspect it will, the pain for Dwayne Johnson will be considerable. The only good news for him is that it doesn’t have to last long, because he already has a sure-fire box office hit in theaters just two weeks later.

Dwayne Johnson will almost certainly land a huge box office success if Vaiana 2 – The Great Adventure will be released on November 27, 2024. The first film remains one of his highest-grossing films and its popularity has grown over the years on Disney+. Vaiana 2 – The Great Adventure will certainly continue Disney’s dominance at the box office in 2024. This is great news for Dwayne Johnson as it can help quickly clear Redness‘s performance from the headlines as he focuses on how well the Vaiana – The wonderful world of love Continuation does it.

Source: Deadline