With just two weeks to go until the opening game of the NFL schedule, Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs host Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens on September 5. The game, which will air on NBC and Peacock, is a rematch of last season’s AFC Championship Game. As we prepare for the official start of American sports, here are the six big questions to consider from a media perspective.
1. How will Tom Brady do as an NFL analyst on Fox?
Brady is easily the biggest NFL media story of 2024, given his fame. He has a huge audience: The NFL gave Fox a Week 1 game featuring the Dallas Cowboys and Cleveland Browns in a national Sunday afternoon slot. (Fox has asked its partners at the NFL to cram the early season with games that can draw huge audiences because it didn’t have the expected success in the 4:25 p.m. ET window last year.) That means a tremendous amount of attention will be on Brady, who will draw early curiosity seekers. He ends the season by announcing Super Bowl LIX on Feb. 9.
In another era, Brady would have started his career as an NFL commentator with less important games or as a second analyst on an “A” team. That was Troy Aikman and Cris Collinsworth’s recipe for success. But in today’s NFL commentating landscape – and given the salary Brady makes – there is no apprenticeship. He will be judged immediately, fairly or unfairly.
Those who work with him – Fox has a very strict policy about what Brady says – said he is determined to be a good broadcaster. He is funny, occasionally vulgar and seems like a normal person with a not-so-normal career and life. His crew has already played practice games in Santa Clara and LA, and Brady has been on a broadcasting fact-finding tour for months. Both Tony Romo and Jim Nantz said The athlete Earlier this year, they said they spoke to Brady often.
My first thoughts on Brady before I heard him: I think he’ll do better than you might expect. He’s a football fanatic, and that usually makes for interesting commentators. Second, I’d bet almost anything that he won’t fulfill his 10-year contract with Fox. He always struck me as someone who has more ambitions than commentating. But we haven’t had a highly anticipated debut sportscaster in a while, and I’m really excited to see how this turns out.
2. Will the presidential election affect the NFL’s numbers?
This question is debated in both the nerd corners of the industry and at NFL headquarters. NFL viewership has historically declined in U.S. presidential election years. For example, NFL games in 2016 averaged 16.5 million viewers, compared to 18.1 million in 2015. The 2020 season is a little tricky due to COVID, but games averaged 15.4 million viewers, compared to 16.5 million. The 2012 season averaged 16.6 million viewers, compared to 17.5 million in 2011.
Of course, there are always multiple factors that affect ratings, but news consumption is actually pulling audiences away from the NFL, and that’s something to keep in mind, especially in a highly polarized political environment.
3. How will consumers react to the Netflix Christmas games?
In May, we learned that Netflix had secured exclusive rights to stream two NFL games on Christmas Day 2024 — the Chiefs vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Ravens vs. the Houston Texans. The three-season deal also includes a game on Christmas Day in 2025 and 2026. CBS will produce the two games this year, and that’s significant because Netflix doesn’t have the ability to produce NFL games on its own. It’s ensuring the games come across as a network-level product. (CBS-owned stations in Baltimore and Pittsburgh, as well as CBS affiliates in Kansas City and Houston, will also air the games.)
The big question that arises is Netflix’s long-term ambitions when it comes to major sports. Amazon dipped its toes in the NFL waters before it hit it big — and look at the streamer now. If the numbers are big, and why shouldn’t they be, we’ll really hear the drumbeats of Netflix entering into a more significant partnership with the NFL at some point. Remember: The NFL has an international slate of games that it can easily parlay into a future media rights package.
Greg Olsen was promoted to second at Fox, giving him the best chance to move up to first if a new job opens up. (Ric Tapia / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
4. How is Greg Olsen coping with being on Fox’s No. 2 team?
Yes, it’s no fun being demoted, and it’s a significant pay cut (my colleague Andrew Marchand has reported that Olsen’s salary will drop from $10 million to $3 million with the move from a No. 1 to a No. 2 team). Still, Olsen has handled his professional situation with great aplomb. He’s already proven he has what it takes to be the NFL’s No. 1 TV commentator, so whenever a No. 1 job opens up in the future, he’ll get a serious shot.
As for work, Olsen has an excellent commentator in Joe Davis and a great sideline reporter in Pam Oliver. The transition should be seamless. Fox needs to figure out how to use him in the Super Bowl. They should come up with a creative way to get him enough airtime on the show.
5. How important are the changes to the NFL pre-game studio shows to viewers?
Phil Simms and Boomer Esiason, both of whom played significant roles in CBS’ NFL coverage for decades, are no longer on “The NFL Today.” Matt Ryan has taken that spot. ESPN parted ways with longtime “Sunday NFL Countdown” host Sam Ponder and replaced her with Mike Greenberg. ESPN also brought in Jason Kelce for the studio show “Monday Night Countdown” to replace Robert Griffin III, who joined Ponder as part of a cost-cutting decision by ESPN. Will there be any significant reaction from viewers or impact on viewership as a result of these transactions?
Replacing Ponder so close to the start of the NFL season was an odd decision, though ESPN management seems committed to having Greenberg host every show, which adds to that effort. (As I said on social media, I would have picked Laura Rutledge, as she has daily NFL credentials and an extensive college football resume.) Ryan is relatively new to the field, and Kelce was a hot free agent. The only move that could impact viewership in my view is Kelce, as there could be some curiosity early in the season, especially with the Taylor Swift vs. Travis Kelce news cycle heating up again in NFL media circles.
6. Will Bill Belichick fall in love with the broadcasting business?
The conventional wisdom is that Belichick is looking for a head coaching job so he can overtake Don Shula on the all-time winners list. But as I’ve written for years, he has the potential to be a good commentator when it comes to the Xs and Os because he’s always been good in those contexts (like his work for NFL Films). Belichick was informative on Pat McAfee’s NFL Draft special and will take on several media roles this fall. He’ll be a regular guest on McAfee’s show, have a regular spot on ESPN’s “Monday Night Football with Peyton and Eli,” have a role on the CW’s “Inside the NFL” and host “Coach with Bill Belichick” – a weekly football analysis show for underdog fantasy that will run on YouTube.
If you want to criticize Belichick for his hypocrisy of being a curmudgeon to the media and then taking media jobs and the money that comes with them, go ahead. He’s just joining a long list. But we’ve all seen famous coaches build long media careers. It’s a very nice job when you not only have media executives kissing your ass, but you get paid for the privilege.
GO DEEPER
Will Tom Brady Really Bring Viewers to Fox? Sports Media Mailbag, Part 1
(Top photo of Tom Brady receiving the trophy after the UFL championship game in June: Scott Rovak / UFL / Getty Images)
