Hilo
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with a few showers. Lows 63 to 71 near the coast to 54 to 59 at 4,000 feet. Northwest winds as low as 15 mph. 50 percent chance of rain.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a few showers. Highs 79 to 87 near the coast to about 68 at 4,000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. 50 percent chance of rain.
Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows 64 to 72 near the coast to 56 to 61 at 4,000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening, becoming light. 70 percent chance of rain.
Kona
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with a few showers. Lows around 75 near the coast to around 53 at 5,000 feet. Light wind. 20% chance of rain.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy in the afternoon with a few showers. Highs 83 to 88 near the coast to around 67 at 5,000 feet. South winds up to 10 mph turning west in the afternoon. 20 percent chance of rain.
Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy in the evening, then mostly clear. Lows around 74 near the coast to 50 to 55 at 5,000 feet. Light wind.
Waimea
Tonight: Windy. Mostly cloudy with a few showers. Lows 63 to 72 near the coast to 55 to 63 at 3,000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. 50 percent chance of rain.
Tuesday: Windy. Partly sunny with a few showers. Highs 64 to 84. East winds 10 to 20 mph, decreasing to 20 mph in the afternoon. 50% chance of rain.
Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows 65 to 73 near the coast to 57 to 64 at 3,000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. 70 percent chance of rain.
Kohala
Tonight: Windy. Mostly cloudy with a few showers. Lows 63 to 72 near the coast to 55 to 63 at 3,000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. 50 percent chance of rain.
Tuesday: Windy. Partly sunny with a few showers. Highs 64 to 84. East winds 10 to 20 mph, decreasing to 20 mph in the afternoon. 50% chance of rain.
Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows 65 to 73 near the coast to 57 to 64 at 3,000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. 70 percent chance of rain.
Southern Big Island
Tonight: Windy. Mostly cloudy with a few showers. Lows around 74 near the coast to 54 at 5,000 feet. Northeast winds up to 20 mph. A 20 percent chance of rain.
Tuesday: Windy. Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny in the afternoon with isolated showers. Maximum temperatures around 30 degrees near the coast to around 20 degrees at 1,500 meters. East wind up to 32 km/h. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tuesday night: Partly cloudy. Lows around 75 near the coast to around 54 at 5,000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph.
Pune
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with a few showers. Lows 63 to 71 near the coast to 54 to 59 at 4,000 feet. Northwest winds as low as 15 mph. 50 percent chance of rain.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a few showers. Highs 79 to 87 near the coast to about 68 at 4,000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. 50 percent chance of rain.
Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows 64 to 72 near the coast to 56 to 61 at 4,000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening, becoming light. 70 percent chance of rain.
Waikoloa
Tonight: Windy. Mostly cloudy with a few showers. Lows around 75 near the coast to around 55 above 4,000 feet. East winds as high as 20 mph. A 20 percent chance of rain.
Tuesday: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny. Windy. Highs 84 to 89 near the coast, 64 to 73 above 4,000 feet. Northeast wind up to 20 mph.
Tuesday night: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 76 near the coast to 53 to 58 above 4,000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph turning east after midnight. 50 percent chance of rain.
Summary
In the wake of Tropical Storm Hone, drier air will continue to move in, and high pressure in the far north of the state will bring a typical moderate to breezy trade wind pattern that will persist for most of the week. Tropical Cyclone Gilma in the far east of the state will weaken later this week, potentially bringing more rain with it.
discussion
Current satellite imagery and radar show clouds and some light showers on the outer edge of Tropical Storm Hone moving across Oahu and Kauai this afternoon. As Hone continues its westward path and moves farther away from the region, its associated moisture field will also move out of our area and the typical anticyclonic trade winds will return. Winds will continue to weaken as Hone’s influence on the pressure gradient weakens. So breezy trade winds will remain today and moderate to breezy tomorrow, with scattered to isolated showers moving into windward and mountainous regions.
The band of drier air creeping in behind Hone’s moisture field will be short-lived. CIMSS MIMIC satellite imagery shows this narrow band of drier air followed by a broad plume of moisture extending well ahead of Hurricane Gilma. This plume of moisture will move into the area as early as Tuesday night, bringing with it an increase in windward and mauka showers through the end of the week. The latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center calls for Gilma to move through or near the area as a weakening tropical depression sometime Friday night. This will bring further disruption to the trade wind pattern, with local impacts depending on the track of this weakening system. Forecasters agree that Gilma will retreat again as it approaches the islands due to a trough forming northwest of the region, potentially leading to a period of warmer weather with higher humidity and light southeasterly winds this weekend. A more southerly track would bring a greater likelihood of a wet trade wind pattern. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center will continue to monitor Gilma’s track as it moves into the Central Pacific Basin tonight.
Finally, remnants of Hector Gilma will follow close behind, possibly as a weak surface trough with a diffuse moisture plume sometime during Saturday night. Little to no impact is expected from this feature.
aviation
The outer bands of Tropical Storm Hone will continue to affect the western end of the state this afternoon. However, they are expected to move southwest overnight. In the rest of the state, drier air has already accumulated behind the storm. An easterly trade wind will establish itself by tomorrow morning and persist through mid-week.
AIRMET Sierra remains in effect above 3000 feet for Kauai and the northeastern portions of the Big Island. Conditions are expected to improve early this evening for Kauai, but may persist overnight on the Windward Big Island.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low-level turbulence downwind of the island region. Conditions are expected to end early this evening as Hone continues to move westward.
marine
Locally strong easterly winds and rough seas will continue tonight into early Tuesday morning as Tropical Storm Hone tracks about 220 nautical miles southwest of the state. The pressure gradient will gradually weaken over the region tonight through the week as Hone moves away and Hurricane Gilma approaches from the east. The small craft advisory has been scaled back to only include the typically windy waters around Kauai, Maui County and the Big Island tonight as winds die down. Winds will continue to die down Tuesday through midweek, falling into the moderate to fresh category.
Although the current forecast from the National Hurricane Center shows Gilma rapidly weakening as it approaches and passes the islands to the north later this week and into the weekend, any deviation from the forecast track this weekend could have major impacts on Hawaiian waters. For more information on Gilma, check out the latest warnings from the National Hurricane Center.
Surf on east coasts will remain rough tonight, but will then ease quickly from Tuesday to midweek as easterly winds die down. An uptick is possible from Tuesday night as a mid-period easterly swell from Gilma begins to spread.
Surf will continue on south facing coasts this evening as a combination of a small southerly swell in the background and a short to medium term south to southeast swell from Hone moving southwest is created. A downward trend back to summer averages is expected from Tuesday through to mid-week.
Surf on the north and west coasts will remain near seasonal averages this week, but could increase slightly on the north coasts this weekend as Gilma approaches the region.
HFO Observations/Warnings/Advice
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 5:00 a.m. HST Tuesday for Northwest Waters of Kauai, Leeward Waters of Kauai, Leeward Waters of Oahu, Kaiwi Channel, Windward Waters of Maui County, Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Leeward Waters of the Big Island, and Southeastern Waters of the Big Island.
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Data courtesy of NOAA.gov
