Vice President Kamala Harris has steadily outperformed former President Donald Trump in several swing states and is currently ahead of him in recent national polls, but a recent survey shows her making surprising gains even in ruby ​​red territory.

The Houston Chronicle reported Thursday that Harris now trails Trump by just five percentage points, 49 to 44, according to the latest University of Houston and Texas Southern University poll of Texas voters. The August poll is the first poll UH and TSU have conducted since President Joe Biden dropped out of the race last month and endorsed Harris. In the last poll, Biden trailed by nearly 10 points in the Lone Star State (49-40), suggesting Harris could face a tough fight for Texas’ 40 electoral votes.

As the Chronicle’s Benjamin Wermund wrote, Harris’ success with Texas voters lies in her “big gains” among women, independents and young voters, while Biden struggled to motivate those groups as a candidate. According to the poll, Harris now leads Trump 50-44 among female voters, while Biden trailed Trump 46-42 among Texas women in the previous poll.

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Texas has not voted for the Democrats since 1976 and is considered one of the most reliably Republican states. However, the changing demographic structure has allowed the Democrats to be almost neck and neck with the Republicans in recent elections.

In 2020, for example, Trump beat Biden in Texas by less than six points, making the race in the Lone Star State a closer one than in 2016, when Hillary Clinton lost by nearly 10 points. More than five million Texans voted Democratic in 2020, and Biden won in urban centers such as Dallas/Fort Worth, Houston, Austin, San Antonio and El Paso, as well as several counties near the Texas-Mexico border.

The latest UH/TSU poll suggests that Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) may be more vulnerable than expected in his campaign for a third term in November if Harris motivates more Texans to vote Democrat. Recent polls show Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas) – a former NFL player – within striking distance of Cruz, particularly according to an August YouGov poll that showed Allred neck and neck with the two-term Republican. In 2018, Cruz beat then-Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas) by just two percentage points.

Cruz may be aware of his vulnerability in the 2024 presidential race, as his campaign this year launched a campaign under the slogan “Democrats for Cruz.” However, Allred questioned the authenticity of the initiative, saying Cruz “isn’t fooling anyone” and Texans “know exactly who he is” given his long history of supporting far-right policies.

READ MORE: Trump loses support in GOP-dominated state as more female voters lean toward Biden

In addition to Texas, Harris is also gaining ground on Trump in his new home state of Florida. Although Florida reelected far-right Governor Ron DeSantis and Senator Marco Rubio (R-Florida) by comfortable margins in 2022, a recent poll from Redfield & Wilton Strategies found the vice president is already beating expectations in the Sunshine State, trailing Trump by just five percentage points. The same polling firm had Trump ahead by six percentage points just two weeks ago, suggesting Harris is steadily gaining ground in a state previously considered uncontested for Democrats.

In addition to the presidential election, Florida residents are also deciding on a U.S. Senate seat and whether abortion rights should be enshrined in their state constitution. Former Representative Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (Democrat, Florida) is only four percentage points behind Senator Rick Scott (Republican, Florida) in recent polls, and abortion rights have yet to lose a vote anywhere, including in deep-red states like Kansas, Kentucky and Montana.

Click here to read the Chronicle’s full report.

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