Montana State’s football schedule this year includes eight Big Sky Conference games, one FBS opponent and three non-conference FCS games.
Here are game predictions for Montana State, ranked No. 4 in HERO Sports’ FCS Preseason Top 25.
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in New Mexico
MSU wants to avoid an unexpected loss early in the season, namely a Week 0 game on national television (FS1).
Yes, it’s an unusual scenario that an FCS team is favored over an FBS team. The line started with Montana State as a 4.5-point favorite. That rose pretty quickly to MSU -8.5, an indication that bettors were overvaluing MSU -4.5. Frankly, 8.5 is probably still an undervaluation of MSU.
The Bobcats finished 67th in last year’s Sagarin Ratings. New Mexico finished 144th.
And the 2024 Bobcats should be better than the 2023 team.
New Mexico has finished 4-8, 2-10 and 3-9 over the past three seasons. The Lobos made a good addition in Bronco Mendenhall, but it will be quite a rebuilding project. They are ranked 131st out of 134 FBS teams entering this season, according to ESPN’s SP+ Preseason FBS Rankings.
Win
at Utah Tech
Montana State, which will boast a top-notch FCS offensive line and elite running back depth, is fielding a team that allowed 222.4 rushing yards per game last year, finishing at the bottom of the subdivision.
Win
against Maine
The crowd is always excited at the home opener in Bozeman. Maine, who went 2-9 last year, will be defeated.
Win
against Mercyhurst
Montana State had to schedule Mercyhurst after SFA canceled its May game against the Cats. Mercyhurst is in its first year as an FCS program.
This is going to be an ugly game. And it will once again raise the question of why Mercyhurst is in the same division as Montana State and why Sam Houston is in the same division as Texas.
Win
at Idaho State
MSU’s defense, which needs to go from pretty good to great to be a real national title contender, will be tested on the road against a solid Idaho State offense. Perhaps a shootout is in the offing. MSU pulls out a closer-than-expected win and shows signs of being able to fight through adversity, something it lacked at times last year.
Win
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against Northern Colorado
Montana State is a big winner at Homecoming.
Win
against No. 7 Idaho
It is now October 12th and this is our first indicator of how good MSU really is.
Beating a bad FBS team tells us a lot. Beating bad FCS teams tells us not much. The best gauge of an FCS team is games against other top-ranked FCS teams.
The Bobcats will have the best offense in the Big Sky. Idaho will have one of the two best defenses in the conference. It will be a real cracker. MSU will get a big win at home and avenge last year’s loss to the Vandals.
Win
at Portland State
Before the conclusion of the regular season with three major tests, consecutive away trips begin.
Portland State has a brutal schedule, eight Preseason-ranked FCS teams and two FBS programs. It will be physically and mentally battered at this point in the season.
Win
in Eastern Washington
EWU may not make the playoffs this fall, but it will give the top teams in the Big Sky a run for their money.
This is another good test for MSU’s defense against a top-notch QB-WR duo (Kekoa Visperas-Efton Chism III). The Eagles have signed some players on defense to improve that side of the ball. MSU will still be too strong here and flex its muscle as arguably the best offense in the FCS.
Win
against No. 8 Sacramento State
As good old JR says, business will pick up soon.
Montana State finishes the regular season with three consecutive seeds. The Cats are currently 9-0 with one FBS win. Who knows, maybe they’re number one in the polls now. But these final three games will be the battle for coveted home-court advantage in the playoffs.
Sac State’s offense will be good this fall. However, the defense has a lot of holes to fill, having lost 10 of its top 11 tacklers. MSU will be able to pull out a win here by relying on its running game in the cold.
Win
at No. 18 UC Davis
The Bobcats are on a roll – 10-0, one FBS win, two ranked wins, and possibly No. 1 in the national rankings – and they’re finally getting caught up one week before the Brawl of the Wild.
UC Davis has the potential to be very good in 2024. Yes, they had potential in previous years too and didn’t make it. However, this fall feels different. Lan Larison is a threat out of the backfield. And while MSU may be the top-ranked team at this point in the season, we still may not be 100% confident in its defense. That will be the Cats’ undoing this week as they struggle to keep Larison in check.
Loss
against No. 3 Montana
Since the dramatic 2018 game in which MSU won 29-25 at Montana, the home team has been the clear favorite. MSU won 48-14 in 2019. Montana won 29-10 in 2021. MSU won 55-21 in 2022. And Montana won 37-7 last year.
Despite last week’s loss, MSU still has a good chance of a top-two playoff finish if they beat Montana, who may also enter the Brawl at 10-1.
It’s almost too easy to just side with the home team. But the home team won this series. On a neutral field, I’d prefer Montana. But Bozeman gives MSU the edge.
Win
Prediction for regular season record: 11-1
We set MSU’s regular season win total at over/under 10.5.
The schedule looks good for the Bobcats. Not that it’s an easy game. There’s one FBS game and four ranked opponents. But it’s the most likely FCS-FBS matchup, and three of the four ranked games are at home.
Montana State could very well be considered the favorite in any game. The Cats should be that good, depending on whether Tommy Mellott stays healthy. They have their most talented receivers back and their full-strength running back team returns its top four rushers. The losses on the offensive line are greatly exaggerated. MSU returns five linemen with significant starting experience and depth has not been an issue on offense either.
If the defense — with four of its top five tacklers, seven of its top 11 and 12 of its 16 defensive players playing at least 280 snaps last year — can step up its game, the Bobcats are a real threat to the national title. Not just a team that can make it there or to the semifinals like in previous years, but a team that can actually win it.
When MSU reached the championship game in the 2021 season and then the semifinals in 2022, 2024 was designated as the year for the Cats. The roster includes around 20 seniors, many of whom are long-time starters. Remember the team that almost beat No. 1 SDSU last year? That team didn’t perform consistently week to week. They failed in key moments and failed to make the crucial play in 50/50 situations that could have changed the final outcome. The experience and talent are there to rewrite the script this fall.
