Predicting a college football team by assigning wins or losses to each game on its schedule is an irresistibly flawed tradition. Every fan has done it – scanning the list of opponents on the TCU Horned Frogs Schedule and win/loss predictions. With the upcoming college football season just days away, let’s look at the 2024 TCU football schedule and do just that.
Looking for a more detailed (and accurate) way to predict a win-loss record? I’ll do that using the more fun method.
Thanks to the departures of Oklahoma and Texas, TCU has a much easier schedule this year than last year. ESPN’s FPI ranks the Horned Frogs’ opponent list as the 47th most difficult nationally, but good enough for the fourth most difficult in the Big 12. The non-conference games are winnable, although two road games make it more difficult than it first appears.
Week 1: at Stanford Cardinal
Don’t be so quick to write this game off as an automatic win. The Cardinal may have been a lackluster 3-9 last season and were uncompetitive at times, but a combination of QB Ashton Daniels and WR Elic Aymanor makes them potentially dangerous. Does anyone really need a reminder of last year’s opener? Here’s how it could go wrong.
TCU has to pull itself together late at night (kickoff 9:30 p.m. CT) and take care of its business away from home.
Expected result: WIN (1-0)
Week 2: against LIU Sharks
Fire the entire staff if TCU loses this game.
Expected result: WIN (2-0)
Week 3: against UCF Knights
UCF has made a lot of improvements in the transfer window this offseason. KJ Jefferson immediately became one of the best quarterbacks in the Big 12 and UCF’s backfield is the strongest in the conference. Guz Malzahn is a genius in the running game and led UCF to the fourth most rushing yards in the country last year.
And the running game just got a lot better.
This week will be a tight chess match between Malzahn’s offense and Andy Avalos’ defense. But Malzahn has been in the business longer and has a more recent proof of concept. I think UCF will be very, very good this year.
Expected result: LOSS (2-1)
Week 4: at SMU Mustangs
This rivalry is quickly becoming rarer. In the penultimate Skillet Game, both teams want to put their stamp on the duel. After 2025, the loser must remain silent for an indefinite period of time. It’s a shame that the game is over, but it also makes the next two duels extremely interesting.
I’m concerned about how SMU QB Preston Stone looks after breaking his leg late in the 2023 season. He’s reportedly back to 100%, but an injury like that is a mental burden for the player returning to play. The Mustangs have won just two games against TCU since 2012 – both in 5-7 seasons. And even though they finished 11-3 last year, TCU beat them.
The Horned Frogs have simply seen through their rival from the other metropolis.
Expected result: WIN (3-1)
Week 5: at the Kansas Jayhawks
“At” is a little misleading here. TCU is playing Kansas at Arrowhead Stadium while the Jayhawks are completing a $300 million overhaul of their own facility in Lawrence. The outcome could be disastrous for this edition of KU, and Arrowhead is a big enough draw for out-of-town fans. I expect a 60-40 split for KU in “home” games in KC this year rather than 80-20. That hurts.
There’s no backup for QB Jalon Daniels this year, and the loss of OC Andy Kotelnicki is a huge blow to the offense. I hope Kansas stays sharp — even good — but it’s less of a concern playing this team on the road when the road game is truly a neutral site.
Expected result: WIN (4-1)
Week 6: against Houston Cougars
Houston will be more rested this short week, having played at home last week. Willie Fritz is an excellent long-term signing for the program. I personally don’t believe the hype surrounding Donovan Smith’s NFL Draft – I really believe it’s a developing meme – and the Cougars are projected to finish near the bottom of the league this year.
While the game may be closer than it should be, I trust Sonny Dykes and TCU to avoid this defeat at home.
Expected result: WIN (5-1)
Week 7: BYE
Everyone’s favorite opponent.
Week 8: at Utah Utes
The second half of TCU’s schedule is far less enjoyable than its early-season schedule. TCU fans may remember games at Rice-Eccles Stadium when the two teams shared a conference from 2005-2010. Kyle Whittingham won two of three of those home games, losing in 2010. But this Utah team is rebounding from an injury-plagued 2023 and is ready to compete on a national level.
I believe two things. First, that this game could become the biggest rivalry in the Big 12. Second, that Utah is a really good football team that could justify the offseason trash talk online this year.
Expected Result: LOSS (5-2)
Week 9: against Texas Tech Red Raiders
If you’re not familiar with body blow theory, let’s take a quick look at it. It’s usually applied to games that come after a game against a military academy. Teams do poorly when they get beat up by tough and physical teams, whether they win or lose those games. This is evident throughout college football – after playing Navy last year, USF was favored by three points over its next opponent, UAB, and was trounced 56-35. After a close game against Air Force, UNLV lost its last two games, one of them as a favorite.
Utah plays a similar brand of football, so this could be a blow to TCU, setting up a home game against Texas Tech. The Red Raiders need to stay healthy, especially at quarterback. If they can do that, this team could be dangerous.
Normally the home team wins this game, but this could be a real disappointment for the Horned Frogs.
Expected Result: LOSS (5-3)
Week 10: at Baylor Bears
Here’s a bold claim: I’m assuming Dave Aranda is gone or this will be his last game in Waco as head coach. Baylor has made moderate improvements to its offense by signing Jake Spavital and acquiring Toledo QB Dequan Finn. However, the MAC Offensive Player of the Year has struggled with accuracy at times and played against significantly weaker competition; against power conference opponents in Toledo, Finn completed about 50% of his passes and never managed more than 240 yards.
Here’s a less bold statement: I don’t think Baylor will be very good this year.
Expected result: WIN (6-3)
Week 11: against Oklahoma State Cowboys
TCU has beaten Oklahoma State at home in the last three games in Fort Worth. Mike Gundy has just a 1-3 record in Fort Worth since the annual series began in 2012. But this is a tough situation for TCU after they’ve had two true rivalry games and a brutal road test in Utah in the last three weeks (even if one of those rivals isn’t that great). Putting this game here caps off a difficult stretch between off weeks.
The Pokes are projected to be third or fourth in the Big 12 this year. I think that’s too low considering Gundy’s historic regular season excellence and Oklahoma State returning 85% of its production from last year. After returning some injured offensive linemen during the off week last year, the Pokes hit the ground running, winning eight of their last 10 games. That’s the Oklahoma State I expect this year.
Expected Result: LOSS (6-4)
Week 12: BYE
Since there is an additional Saturday this year, the teams get two weeks off!
Week 13: against Arizona Wildcats
Let me ask you a question: secure Will Arizona continue its winning streak next season? They lose a great head coach who rebuilt the program, a first-round NFL offensive lineman, several key contributors to the portal, and they change conferences. Are we positive that’s a top 25 team?
QB Noah Fifita and WR Tetairoa McMillan are the most dynamic duo in the conference. The talent goes beyond that, including the signing of 1,000-yard runner Jacory Croskey-Merritt from New Mexico. But I think it’s foolish to think a team will continue its historic breakaway run without its most fundamental pieces and structure.
Just food for thought.
Actually useful information: TCU has a rest advantage in this game because it is currently on break and playing at home. Arizona is currently off break and playing on the road.
Expected result: WIN (7-4)
Week 14: at the Cincinnati Bearcats
Cincinnati should be a better team than last year. However, the improvement could be marginal, as the team suffered some setbacks to its strong defensive line before the season began. All-American DT Dontay Corleone appears to be ready to play again after suffering a blood clot scare earlier this year, but an expected key player, Jalen Hunt, is out for the rest of the season.
The Bearcats have secured Indiana QB Brendan Sorsby, and he should bring additional playmaking ability as a dual-threat option QB. The offensive line could be the best in the league and the secondary has stars. This could lead to a game where Cincinnati, 5-6, battles for bowl eligibility at home against TCU, which is in a nebulous gap between bowl eligibility and playoff eligibility.
This could make the game dangerous. I’m predicting a TCU win because I think the Frogs are the better team, but I don’t have a good feeling about it (more on that later).
Expected result: WIN (8-4)
Instead of marking 1, 0, 1, 1, 0 for wins against each opponent, it’s best to assign probabilities. Because if TCU has a 55% chance of beating SMU, they’ll lose 45% of the time. Adding those together gives you an average expected number of wins. So let’s look at that schedule again with the expected win probabilities (I promise these aren’t pulled out of a hat, but based on aggregate industry performance ratings):
at Stanford: 73.9% expected win rate for TCU
against LIU: 99%
against UCF: 60.7%
at SMU: 45.7%
in Kansas: 38%
against Houston: 82.7%
Utah: 33.5%
against Texas Tech: 63.2%
at Baylor: 57.5%
against Oklahoma State: 52.6%
against Arizona: 52.6%
in Cincinnati: 66.5%
That’s how we average 7.3 wins this season. In certain situations, I think 7-5 is more likely than 9-3. But if we turn just one game around – like we did at SMU on the road – we’re 8-4!
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