For a while it looked like this season was going to be a disaster for the Houston Astros.
Plagued by injury problems and poor performance, they once finished last in the AL West division, which they dominated for years. After doing everything they could to bring that group another World Series title last winter, it looked like they might not even make the playoffs.
However, that has now changed.
Entering Thursday, the Astros are five games ahead of the Seattle Mariners and ten games ahead of the third-place Texas Rangers.
Houston looks set to make it to the postseason again, and as they’ve shown in every fall baseball game, they could really turn it on and go far.
However, at least one analyst does not consider them a legitimate contender for the World Series.
Jimmy Rollins, former NL MVP, four-time Gold Glove winner, three-time All-Star, one-time Silver Slugger, 2008 World Series champion and current TBS commentator, shared his thoughts on their chances of winning a third title.
“No. I think they’re in a good place right now. (Alex) Bregman has had a great turnaround, they’re playing good baseball but in a bad division, so with that in mind I say no,” he responded in a video posted by Bleacher Report.
When looking at the Astros’ underlying metrics, they differ from the other top contenders.
Their plus-67 run differential is the smallest of any division leader and the second-smallest differential of any AL team with a winning record.
They also cannot keep up with their previous teams that have participated in a World Series.
They rank outside the top 10 in runs scored. By comparison, they were fifth last season, eighth when they won the 2022 title, first when they lost in the 2021 World Series, third when they lost in 2019, and first when they won the championship in 2017.
Their team ERA has crept into the top 10, but is still not as good as it was in the same years, with the exception of 2017, when they finished the year ranked 11th.
Of course, you can’t doubt Houston’s performance when they’re in the playoffs.
There’s a reason they set the AL record for most consecutive American League Championship Series appearances: They get their hits on time and their pitching staff shuts down the opposing lineup.
Only time will tell if they can make another deep postseason run, but for now they need to focus on winning their fourth consecutive division title.
