It won’t be easy for UVA head coach Tony Elliott to get to a bowl game this season. A few weeks ago, Virginia was picked to finish 16th out of 17 teams in the 2024 ACC Football Preseason Poll. Several bookies have Virginia’s win total for this season at 4.5, showing that it will be an uphill battle for Virginia to make the postseason. Still, it’s entirely possible for UVA to get to a bowl game this season, so let’s look at some of the key factors needed to make it happen.
One of the reasons UVA has won just three games in each of the last two seasons is Virginia’s inability to decide games in the fourth quarter. Last year, the Cavaliers lost an incredible four games in which the Hoos had double-digit leads at times, which is inexcusable. At key moments, Virginia had opportunities to win and failed to capitalize. Sometimes it was turnovers that hurt the Hoos. Sometimes it was the defense not getting the fourth-quarter stops it needed. Sometimes it was poor coaching decisions that let UVA down. Regardless, UVA had a -60 fourth-quarter lead last season. For comparison, Virginia’s lead through the first three quarters of the year was -70 (+14 if you remove games against Tennessee, Georgia Tech, and Virginia Tech). Virginia was clearly a worse football team in the fourth quarter last season, which will have to change for the Hoos to make a bowl game this season.
Last year, it’s fair to say that Virginia had a catastrophic run of injury luck. UVA’s starting quarterback Tony Muskett was injured in the season opener against Tennessee and missed several weeks. Kam Butler, Olasunkonmi Agunloye, Antonio Clary and other key players suffered season-ending injuries early in the year. Given UVA’s lack of depth, the Cavaliers could not afford to lose so many key players last season. Virginia has already had some key injuries this year. the loss of Mekhi Buchannan and Stevie Bracey for the seasonbut this UVA squad is much better positioned to rebound from losing some key players. Virginia has much more playable depth throughout the roster (especially on the offensive line, wide receivers, and in the secondary) due to the addition of several young players last season and the continued addition of new players in the transfer portal. Still, Virginia has limited roster depth and will need better luck with injuries to be in a position to compete in a bowl game.
Although Virginia was unlucky with injuries on the offensive line last year, the offensive line play just wasn’t good enough for UVA to compete in a bowl game. Last season, Virginia had virtually no running game to speak of, finishing second to last in the ACC with 117.9 rushing yards per game. Overall, the Cavaliers averaged just 3.1 yards per run, which ranked 123rd out of 133 teams in the FBS. Xavier Brown’s return from injury and Kobe Pace’s return for another year should help improve the running game, but the offensive line will have to get significantly better for Virginia to establish any sort of ground attack on offense.
The offensive line also struggled a lot protecting the quarterback last season. Last year, the Hoos allowed 3.6 sacks per game, which was among the worst in the country. Teams were consistently able to pressure the quarterback against Virginia, and the Cavaliers didn’t have enough resistance. This year, UVA has a lot more continuity on the offensive line and has added the transfer portal, but the pass protection needs to improve significantly. Last year, there were too many defenses that Virginia couldn’t block, which can’t happen this year if Virginia wants to reach a bowl game.
It wasn’t just the offensive line that struggled for Virginia last year. The defensive line was just as bad, and in some areas worse. In 2023, the Cavaliers did lose some key defensive linemen to season-ending injuries, but the performance of the players who were on the field still wasn’t good enough. Last season, Virginia was one of the worst teams in the FBS in terms of access to the QB, averaging just 0.9 sacks per game. Virginia’s 11 sacks last year were not only last in the ACC, but also last among all FBS teams.
This season, Virginia returns two key players in Kam Butler, Chico Bennett Jr. and Jahmeer Carter and should have a lot more playable depth on the defensive line this year. Virginia lost Mekhi Buchanan earlier in fall training camp for the season, but the team is much better positioned to counteract injuries this year. In any case, UVA’s defensive line will need to take a massive leap forward to help the Cavaliers return to the postseason.
Virginia’s chances of getting to a bowl game will be significantly affected by how the Cavaliers perform in non-conference games early in the season. UVA should be able to hold its own at home against Richmond in the season opener. However, the Cavaliers also have a home game against Maryland early in the season and a difficult road game against Coastal Carolina before the end of September. Those two matchups aren’t necessarily must-win games, but UVA’s chances of getting to a bowl game will be significantly reduced with a loss in either game.
First off, Virginia will most likely lose on the road to Notre Dame in an out-of-conference game later in the season, meaning UVA would have to win four games in the ACC to get into the bowl tournament. The Cavaliers have a few favorable home games in the conference, but UVA has several game-winning games on the road this year. In the ACC, UVA plays on the road against Wake Forest, Clemson, Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech. Wake Forest and Pittsburgh are games Virginia can win, but beating Clemson or Virginia Tech will be a tall order. At home, Virginia has winnable games in Boston College, Louisville, North Carolina and SMU. However, Tony Elliott has gone just 3-12 in the ACC so far in his first two years with the program. Given the challenges Elliott has had in his first two seasons in the ACC, it will be important for UVA to win three out-of-conference games to get into the bowl tournament. Even if Virginia were to win just two games outside of the conference, its chances of a bowl appearance would not be destroyed, but the road to the playoffs would become much more challenging.
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