Looking back at Thursday’s two games from a fantasy perspective.
I’ll start by saying that I hate the preseason. Not just in the NFL, but in any sport. It’s a very important time because players get in shape and prepare for real games, but those games mean nothing and I can’t look forward to them.
Still, sometimes we can glean valuable information from what we see, whether it’s a great performance by an unknown or a rookie struggling to adjust to the NFL. As much as it pained me, I watched and followed the two preseason games on Thursday night to see if anything stood out and/or if we could answer any lingering questions.
There’s only so much we can glean from a game, so I won’t overreact; the first preseason game probably feels like a practice game for any veteran with at least a few years of experience under their belt. However, I’m going to stretch the term “fantasy-relevant” a bit so we can examine numbers that might be significant from a fantasy perspective.
Carolina Panthers vs. New England Patriots
The Panthers haven’t used any offensive starters, so all we can get is insight into the replacement situations and who might make the roster. That’s not very helpful; two guys are battling for the third quarterback spot (unfortunately he’s not related to Jake) and , has played all the snaps at quarterback.
isn’t on the fantasy radar, but a good preseason could change that. While he still has two chances to show something, the passer may not play at all in Year 2, so we’ll stick with the current perception.
The Carolina backfield is one of the biggest question marks for any team, and we haven’t gotten any clarity. None of the backs listed on the depth chart appeared in the game. The rookie will not play in the preseason, and his status for the start of the season is seriously in question.
Opinions are divided on Brooks: He could take on the role of top back once he gets on the field and show why he was drafted as the first running back despite suffering a serious knee injury late in the 2023 season. He could also start the season on the injured list, missing at least the first four games, then slowly ease back into work without having a chance to really carry the load until next year.
The risk is high enough to keep some guys out; and they’ll all be drafted in the same range as starting backs who are safer but have less upside (aside from Mostert, who I really like for his value); and they’ll be fighting for jobs if Brooks goes down; I don’t have much confidence in that.
was the most notable receiver to take the field for Carolina. His chances of being targeted were severely hampered by the additions (trade) and (32nd pick overall). Mingo is not on the fantasy radar, nor is any other Panther who played Thursday.
The Patriots showed a little more, allowing three passes to both the rookie and freshman before doing most of the cleanup work. That’s not nearly enough to draw any real conclusions, but Brissett went 0-of-3 while Maye completed two passes for 19 yards.
Rookie III showed his ability to handle two offenses, completing four of six passes for 54 yards and a touchdown and running five times for 22 yards. Drafted in the sixth round, Milton is far from the level of an NFL starter, but he has the athletic ability to make an impact at some point (though not this year).
Two running backs expected to rotate, and , both played early in the game. Stevenson had just one run for 11 yards and Gibson touched the ball five times for 17 yards (one pass reception for 13 yards).
That could be discouraging for Stevenson supporters. Although preseason touches don’t reflect actual game situations, Gibson will likely limit Stevenson’s possessions and do most of the work as a pass receiver. Gibson could be the better option in PPR leagues.
New England doesn’t have a clear-cut top receiver, but the rookie is a popular candidate to breakout. Polk caught three passes for 14 yards; it’s encouraging he was there, but he was overshadowed by , who gained 53 yards on his three catches.
There are plenty of names at wide receiver: and at the top (none of whom played), along with , , and more. caught a 38-yard touchdown pass, but he’s way down the rankings and likely won’t make an impact this season.
and , the Patriots’ two best tight ends, were not used. New England won the game 17-3, perhaps because the Patriots let their starters play a little while Carolina relied exclusively on reserve players.
Detroit Lions vs. New York Giants
If you didn’t like the lack of regular starters in the last game, you’ll be disappointed here. Neither team used their regular starters, but one player is about to make a huge impact.
a fifth-round pick last season, ran the ball four times for 52 yards and two touchdowns and caught four passes for 46 yards. Gray got a little buzz last season playing behind the injury-prone, but he gained fewer than 100 total yards in 13 games and did not score a touchdown.
The Giants signed Devin Singletary as their starter, but he’s a mediocre running back. He’s never rushed for 900 yards and scored seven touchdowns in 2021 at Buffalo. He catches about 35 passes a year and scores one touchdown through the air, showing competence if not explosiveness.
Jr. was drafted in the fifth round this season and could compete for backup running backs; he did the heavy lifting in this game, gaining 5.3 yards per carry (12 carries for 63 yards), which could stand out in a troubled backfield.
Gray will get the biggest headlines, but neither player is more than a lottery ticket in the latter rounds. Singletary is a flexible, low-power player you’ll consider in the right weeks. New York is a low-power offensive player overall.
The only possible exception is the rookie receiver. He was selected sixth in the first round of the draft this year and some teams have reportedly ranked him higher than the super-talented Jr. Harrison is ranked 13th by ESPN among receivers in PPR leagues, while Nabers is ranked 25th.
Harrison is in a better quarterback situation now after dealing with a serious knee injury over a year ago. Big things are rightly expected, but it’s always impossible to know how a player will perform in the NFL until he shows it; even the best talents fail.
Nabers will catch passes from, another player returning from a knee injury. Jones had his best year in 2022 and earned a big contract, but the Giants may well get out of the deal after this season.
Jones has injury guarantees, so if New York decides to move on, they could bench him like we saw with the likes of and the Raiders last season and the Raiders in 2022. (Are there any injury guarantees?)
If the team ends up benching Jones for 2018, it will lower Nabers’ potential. Jones isn’t great, but he was selected early in the first round for a reason: he has talent. Lock is a good backup who hasn’t shown any better so far.
Nabers seems like an up-and-down guy. His overwhelming talent could make him an instant WR1, as we’ve seen with guys like this recently. If the passing game is a mess and quarterback changes happen, Nabers could struggle to make a consistent impact.
No other receiver on the team inspires confidence. ‘s one catch for nine yards topped the wide receiver’s performance in this game. and Ton are deep league insiders and likely won’t make an impact in most situations. None of those guys played in this game, Nabers was there.
Detroit has a lot of relevant fantasy players. has been a top 10 fantasy quarterback each of the last two seasons. Both and were top 20 running backs in both scoring formats last year. is one of the best receivers in football. might be the best tight end in fantasy football (he struggles with ; I give the veteran the edge).
None of those fantasy stars appeared in this game. None of the backups who played are even close to being on the fantasy radar, and none stood out anyway. The quarterback is an interesting guy, as he missed all of last season recovering from an injury he suffered at the end of his college career. He’s a project, but also an athlete, leading the team with 34 rushing yards on four attempts. He was five of nine throws for 36 yards.
New York won that game 14-3, a result of Gray’s two points. Some will snatch Gray later in the draft after his great performance, and the team has no reason to hold him behind Singletary, who has a modest contract.
We can’t expect consistent production right away, but Gray is a good lottery ticket.
#2024-Fantasy-Football
