The 2024 season begins in just over two weeks, and we’ll soon learn more about what the Michigan Wolverines are truly capable of as they attempt to defend their national championship title from last year.
With Sherrone Moore as the new head coach, some new faces joining the team, and a much more challenging schedule than in recent years, it will be interesting to see how Michigan fares.
Speaking of the schedule, ESPN has finally released its matchup prediction calculator for every college football game. As expected, despite some uncertainty, Michigan is expected to win more games than it loses. Here’s how ESPN predicts the Wolverines’ chances in all 12 games of the 2024 regular season.
Week 1: Fresno State Bulldogs
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Michigan’s chances of winning: 89.2%
Jeff Tedford unexpectedly retired over the summer, which may or may not affect Fresno State’s offensive prowess. However, since this is a season opener, you never really know what to expect from either team. It should be an exciting start for the Wolverines, and we should learn a lot about what makes Michigan tick.
Week 2: Texas Longhorns
Brett Patzke-USA TODAY Sports
Michigan’s chances of winning: 34.9%
This will certainly be an early test for Michigan, as Texas is also coming off a playoff run. Quinn Ewers is impressive at quarterback and has some weapons at receiver, and the Longhorns’ offensive line is considered elite. However, UT has lost its two best running backs for the season and is rebuilding its defense. Since this is a home game, it would not be a surprise if Michigan ends up with a win that no one thinks it can win.
Week 3: Arkansas State Red Wolves
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Michigan’s chances of winning: 92.3%
This is the easiest game on the schedule, and ESPN agrees. However, Arkansas State has been a thorn in the teams’ side from time to time. This game could be the last exhibition game before conference play, but Michigan can’t let up.
Week 4: USC Trojans
Photo: Isaiah Hole
Michigan’s chances of winning: 65.7%
It’s a very different Big Ten opener than we’ve ever seen before. The team that often wanted to see Michigan in the Rose Bowl comes to Ann Arbor to open conference play. Lincoln Riley knows the offense and of course hopes Miller Moss is the right quarterback now that Caleb Williams has moved on to the NFL. But defensively, this team still has a lot of work to do.
Week 5: Minnesota Golden Gophers
Photo: Isaiah Hole
Michigan’s chances of winning: 84.4%
Unless Minnesota can develop an offense and recreate the performances it had when it had Tanner Morgan at quarterback, it will have to rely almost entirely on its defense. At times it has had an excellent running game, but in recent years it has been one-dimensional, even with Morgan.
Week 6: at Washington Huskies
Photo: Isaiah Hole
Michigan’s chances of winning: 60.7%
This team is difficult to gauge. Who knows how quickly Washington can build on last year’s glory with Jedd Fisch taking the reins and there being so many new faces in Seattle? This is Michigan’s first road game and you never know how they will fare in enemy territory. The last few years have been in the Wolverines’ favor, but in the not too distant past, this was the type of game Michigan usually lost.
Week 8: at Illinois Fighting Illini
Photo: Isaiah Hole
Michigan’s chances of winning: 79.6%
Bret Bielema has a history of playing against tough teams, and the Illini are no exception. Although last year was a step back, it’s safe to assume that this game is a terrible place on his schedule. That’s not a sure thing, especially considering it’s on the road.
Week 9: Michigan State Spartans
Photo: Isaiah Hole
Michigan’s chances of winning: 86.7%
MSU has a new head coach in Jonathan Smith and given his roster, there’s no telling what the Spartans will look like. On paper, it doesn’t look good and Michigan should pull off a clean sweep for the third straight year, but you never know in rivalry games. After all, Mel Tucker won his first two games when nobody thought it was possible.
Week 10: Oregon Ducks
Photo: Isaiah Hole
Michigan’s chances of winning: 34.5%
For us, this is the toughest game on the schedule, even though it’s at home. Oregon is absolutely loaded on all fronts. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel has shown he’s one of the best in the country, and he’s coming to a team with tremendous firepower, solid line play, and everything the Ducks need to win big. But big wins have eluded Oregon so far. And finally, it’s a cross-country trip in the middle of the season.
Week 11: at Indiana Hoosiers
Photo: Isaiah Hole
Michigan’s chances of winning: 83.1%
Curt Cignetti, the Hoosiers’ new head coach, is certainly talking big. Indiana has had a ton of new additions and it’s still difficult to predict exactly what IU will look like in 2024. Aside from the debacle of the 2020 COVID season, Michigan hasn’t lost to Indiana since 1986.
Week 13: Northwestern Wildcats
Photo: Isaiah Hole
Michigan’s chances of winning: 85.4%
Although Northwestern isn’t quite as strong as it once was, David Braun’s team shouldn’t be underestimated. He’s managed to get things under control in a short amount of time, and the Wolverines will certainly be looking forward to next week.
Week 14: at the Ohio State Buckeyes
Photo: Isaiah Hole
Michigan’s chances of winning: 25.8%
It’s worth noting that Michigan was often listed as a big underdog against the Buckeyes in the preseason, according to ESPN. Given the last three years, we definitely think the Wolverines have a much better chance than ESPN is predicting. Ohio State hasn’t really solidified its offensive line yet, and Michigan’s biggest strength is its defensive front. The same goes if Michigan still has a strong offensive line and can see through the quarterback. This could be another upset.
