• Chad Kelly throws passes for Toronto again: Kelly’s pass percentage of 90.7 was the best in the CFL last season, and he also had a big-time throw ratio of 7.7% (2nd) and a turnover worship ratio of 3.7% (3rd).
• The timeless Willie Jefferson continues to impress: The Bomber legend has the sixth-highest pass-rushing rating while ranking second in the league with 39 total pressures.
• Dominate your fantasy draft: Subscribe to PFF+ to get full access to PFF’s full suite of fantasy football tools, including the Fantasy Mock Draft Simulator, Live Draft Assistant, Fantasy Rankings, Cheat Sheet and more! Click here to register!
Estimated reading time: 8 minutes
SASKATCHEWAN ROUGHRIDERS VS TORONTO ARGONAUTS
Week 12 begins with a Saskatchewan team trying to defend its lead in the West Division facing a Toronto team desperate to make up ground in the East Division race. Saskatchewan quarterback Trevor Harris returned last week and posted an overall grade of 93.7. When healthy, Harris is arguably the best quarterback in the CFL. He rarely misses throws and can pick apart any defense. Toronto’s defense has improved week after week but will certainly have its hands full defending Harris. There is one major bright spot for the Argonauts this week. Their starting quarterback, last season’s standout player Chad Kelly, is back. He has served his suspension and now the question is what he will look like when he returns. With minimal practice time, it will be interesting to see how well he can play against a very good Saskatchewan defense.
DUEL GAME: RG LOGAN FERLAND, SASKATCHEWAN VS DI JAKE CERESNA, TORONTO
By all accounts, Ferland has had a solid season for Saskatchewan’s offensive line. The guard hasn’t allowed a single sack all year, and his 98.6 pass-blocking efficiency score is the highest among right guards. If he still hasn’t allowed a sack after this game, it will be one of his most impressive games yet. Ceresna is a beast when it comes to pressuring the passer. His 81.0 pass-rushing score is fifth-best in the league this year, as is his 15.2% pass-rush win rate. He’s also a very good enforcer. Of his 24 total pressure situations, seven have been sacks. He’s tied for the league leader there, and will look to increase that number with a good performance on Thursday night.
PLAYER TO WATCH: QB CHAD KELLY, TORONTO
The moment the Argonauts have been waiting for all season is finally here. Whether Kelly should have ever been allowed to return is a topic of debate, but from a football perspective, his return is huge. Toronto has essentially been treading water this season, waiting for him to come back and get their offense back to 2023 levels. Kelly’s passing grade of 90.7 led the CFL last season, while he also posted a big-time throw rate of 7.7% (tied for second) and a turnover-worth rate of 3.7% (third). One cause for concern for Toronto would be that Kelly’s last appearance, the East Division semifinals, was by far the worst game of his career. He had a passing grade of 27.9 after six turnover-worth games and zero big-time throws. Toronto needs Kelly back from the regular season. If he can return to that MOP level from last season, Toronto could make a run in the second half of the season.
HAMILTON TIGER-CATS VS WINNIPEG BLUE BOMBERS
This has already been a season to forget for Hamilton, who are 2-8 and in last place in the CFL. The Tiger-Cats recently benched starting quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell for Taylor Powell, only to see Powell get injured last week. Mitchell played solid in his return to the field, but it wasn’t enough to beat the Edmonton Elks. Whether he plays or Hamilton puts third-string Harrison Frost, the Tiger-Cats will have a tough time against the league-leading Winnipeg Blue Bombers defense. Winnipeg is getting strong play from veterans like EDGE Willie Jefferson (80.3 pass-rush grade) and LB Kyrie Wilson (73.5 overall grade). Their real star, however, is their starting corner Tyrell Ford, who is the league’s highest-rated defensive player with a 91.2 overall grade. He has the ability to single-handedly turn the tide of a game, and he should be licking his fingers when he thinks about Hamilton’s questionable quarterback situation.
DUEL GAME: RT QUINTON BARROW, HAMILTON VS ED WILLIE JEFFERSON, WINNIPEG
It’s no secret that Barrow has struggled as a pass blocker this season. Although he’s only allowed two sacks, he’s been beaten fairly regularly on his pass-blocking snaps. His pass-block win rate is just 81.9%, the lowest mark in the league among offensive linemen. This week, he only has to worry about one future Hall of Famer in Willie Jefferson. The Bombers legend has the sixth-highest pass-rushing rating and his 39 total pressures are the second-highest in the league. Jefferson is in the top 10 in virtually every pass-rushing category and again leads the league in passes batted down. Jefferson is coming off another All-Star season and could have another big game this week.
PLAYERS TO WATCH: DI DEWAYNE HENDRIX, HAMILTON
Hendrix’s raw stats may not seem particularly impressive on paper. He has just two sacks this season, which ranks him 22nd in the league. But Hendrix has an impressive 14.9% pass rush win rate, the fourth-highest in the league. When he wins, he wins fast, as evidenced by his league-leading 90.0 pass rushing rating. Hendrix had a good year last year, but this season he’s playing at a whole different level. Keep an eye on the interior defender, this could be a big game for him.
BRITISH COLUMBIA LIONS VS OTTAWA REDBLACKS
No team has pulled off a bigger surprise this season than Ottawa. The Redblacks have already won six games and the season is only halfway over. Last year they won just four games! The Redblacks are playing excellently across the board. One of the highlights has been new RB Ryquell Armstead, who ranks second in the CFL with 26 forced missed tackles. While the Redblacks have been a pleasant surprise, the Lions have been nothing short of disappointing as of late. After a 5-1 start to the season, the Lions have lost four games in a row and are in freefall. Their savior, QB Nathan Rourke, had a brutal return to the CFL, recording the lowest passing grade of the week last week at 32.4. The good news for BC is that it’s almost certainly only up. With Vernon Adams Jr. still out with injury, they’ll have to continue to trust Rourke and hope he can return to his elite 2022 form.
GAME TO WATCH: WR JUSTIN MCINNIS, BRITISH COLUMBIA VS HB DEANDRE LAMONT, OTTAWA
It’s been a rough couple of weeks for McInnis. In seven games, he’s caught 48 passes for 780 yards and six touchdowns. He’s had 14 contested catches and 25 explosive receptions. In the last three games, he’s caught just seven passes for 95 yards and zero touchdowns. He hasn’t made a contested catch and has had just one explosive reception. He’ll look to rebound against Lamont, who has struggled at times this season. While Lamont has five pass breakups, he’s also allowed 47 receptions, the most in the league. His coverage grade of 67.0 is 35th in the league. This matchup is one to keep an eye on to see if McInnis can return to his form from the start of the season.
PLAYER TO WATCH: RB WILLIAM STANBACK, BRITISH COLUMBIA
Whether it’s Vernon Adams Jr. or Nathan Rourke, the Lions’ quarterback has been the talk of the town this season, but it’s lost on the fact that Stanback is having a very impressive season. The running back has 404 yards after contact, second most in the league. His 26 forced missed tackles are also second most. Stanback does all of this despite having the worst offensive line in the CFL. Stanback also has 27 catches for 236 yards and another forced missed tackle. With BC’s quarterback situation suddenly a little questionable, a strong performance from Stanback could help BC get its season back on track.
EDMONTON ELKS VS MONTREAL ALOUETTES
The best team in the CFL right now is the Edmonton Elks. They have won three games in a row while averaging over 40 points per game. Whether Tre Ford or McLeod Bethel-Thompson is playing quarterback, it doesn’t matter. The Elks have figured out how to win games and are back in the playoff race. This will be their toughest test yet as they face the 9-1 Montreal Alouettes, who have been by far the best team in the league this season. Montreal has one of the best defenses in the CFL and now its offense will be bolstered by the return of Most Outstanding Player Award favorite QB Cody Fajardo. If he returns with a great game, Montreal could put out this impressive wildfire in Edmonton.
GAME TO WATCH: WR EUGENE LEWIS, EDMONTON VS CB NAFEES LYON, MONTREAL
It hasn’t been a memorable season for Lewis, one of the best wide receivers in football over the past few seasons. The Edmonton receiver ranks second with 10 contested catches but has just nine explosive receptions, putting him outside of the top 20 receivers. But it’s still Geno Lewis. He’s capable of a big game at any time. It will be up to Lyon to keep him in check. The Alouette struggled in his return from injury last week, allowing eight catches for 104 yards and a touchdown. But before that, he had allowed just 11 catches for 147 yards over the course of six games. Lyon hasn’t intercepted a pass since Week 3 and will struggle quite a bit with Lewis in any contested target situation. The winner of those battles could turn the tide in his team’s favor.
PLAYER TO WATCH: WR AUSTIN MACK, MONTREAL
Montreal has struggled with injuries at the receiver position this season. Most recently, Tyson Philpot, one of the best receivers in the entire league, was placed on the six-game injured list. He joins the tricky Kaion Julien-Grant and impressive sophomore Tyler Snead. The Alouettes weren’t going to sit idly by, however, and were quick to bring back last season’s star receiver. Austin Mack was the league’s seventh-best receiver last year, ranking sixth with an average of 2.03 yards per route run.
