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Andrew Champagne’s Tips, Analysis, Bankroll – Troy Record


Andrew Champagne’s Tips, Analysis, Bankroll – Troy Record

SARATOGA SPRINGS, NY —

BANKROLL: $1,901

It’s no secret that I’m not a huge fan of the Wilson slide. I know why it’s there, and as a quirky alternative, it’s fine (though as far as “quirky alternatives” go, it’s nowhere near as fun as Santa Anita’s downhill turf course).

However, over the last two summers, we have seen far, far, far too much of the slide. Dozens of turf races have been moved to the main track, and the slide is also used in spots where two-turn sand racing would otherwise have been run. At Saratoga, two-turn sand racing starts and finishes in front of the grandstand, and I am opposed to any idea or concept that results in these races being run less frequently.

Friday’s card is unfortunately a prime example of this. The early pick five has two Wilson Chute races, and there are no two-turn dirt races on an 11-race card. This is not a positive, and the race office would be wise to minimize the frequency of such races in the future.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: My two main horses in race six both underperformed, dropping both exactas and doubles. I lost $32 after the retirements.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: I have two strong opinions that are pretty close. I’ll place $15 win bets on #5 BROWN EYED CAT (race 3) and #4 SIZZLE (race 5) and bet both individually as bookends in the Pick Three starting in the third race. My $3 ticket uses #1 DUNE ROAD/#1A CHALKY CAT, #3 ANDY CANT and #5 WHISKEY N SODA in the fourth race.

TOTAL BETS: $39.

Best bet: Sizzle, Race 5

Outsider: April Antics, Race 1

Race 1

April Fools

Halo City

Pretti Xtreme

#2 APRIL ANTICS (10-1): The odds for Friday’s opening race are worth a long look. She’s stretching back to a mile after a win seven furlongs further south in the state and already has a win here at this track last summer. Those odds seem too high to me, even given the completely open nature of this event; #1 HALO CITY (7/2): Drops down in class after finishing fourth in the mud at this track two weeks ago. The day’s runner-up was a close second at a higher level on Wednesday and the inside position is certainly a plus; #7 PRETTI XTREME (2-1): Is another one coming down the class ladder and she’s had races that would wipe out this group. However, sometimes it’s a warning sign when Linda Rice drops horses that far and the starting position on the outside is a real risk.

Race 2

Governor Sam

Spiral cutter

Jet Sweep Joe

#3 GOVERNOR SAM (7/5): Has already run three times this season and scored a point in the Tyro at Monmouth. His win at that track was a convincing start-to-finish victory and I think he’ll be the one to catch again here in the Skidmore; #5 SPIRALIZER (8-1): Comes from Churchill after a letdown at Bashford Manor on dirt. His pedigree says he prefers turf though and several strong local turf workouts across the road back that up. Flavien Prat thinks he’s right to ride and if he returns to his first race performance he’s got a chance; #1 JET SWEEP JOE (5-1): Put up a hell of a fight in the Tyro when running a close second to my favorite at 30-1 odds. That was the best performance of his career and a repeat of that would put him right there but it’s also possible he can bounce back after such a huge improvement.

Race 3

Brown-eyed cat

Tuscany

Broman entry

#5 BROWN EYED CAT (4-1): Overcame a fast track with a spirited comeback that put him in the winner’s circle on his debut. They were pretty fast early on the day, but that’s not the kind of comeback you often see from first-timers, and I think he could be a very, very talented horse; #4 TOSCANO (3-1): Found two turns too wide last time out and should appreciate the shortening to 6 1/2 furlongs. His performance here over two consecutive rounds over seven furlongs was good, and the day’s third-place finisher came right back to win; BROMAN ENTRY (2-1): Neither #1 LAND D’ORO nor #1A WINE RESPONSIBLY would be too surprising, but I have my doubts about both. The former is a close-runner who drew a difficult inside position after a difficult trip last time out, while the latter is making his first start in nearly nine months and could very well need a race.

Race 4

Andy Cant

Whiskey N Soda

Travel entry

#3 ANDY CANT (5-1): Ran too poorly to be true last time out when he trailed the whole time against a higher-class group. Some of his best performances have come at this one-mile distance and he has enough initial speed to dictate conditions in the early going; #5 WHISKEY N SODA (2-1): Was second in two rounds last time out and is easing off a bit in his first start for Orlando Noda. I’m not convinced by the quality of the field he faced last time out but there are no world-class players here either and with only three starts under his belt he may have room for improvement; RICE ENTRY (7/2): I prefer #1A CHALKY CAT who found his form further south before being benched and will be protected on his return from the bench. This is his first start for Linda Rice’s team, which is one of the best in the game with its new additions.

Race 5

Sizzle

Holy Image

By Hello

#4 SIZZLE (6-1): Hasn’t run a bad race in her career so far and has shown that two turns is no problem. Tyler Gaffalione sees fit to ride for Lisa Lewis, who doesn’t have a large stable but has long discovered good horses at the Spa; #10 SACRED IMAGE (5/2): Takes a big setback for Chad Brown after going a little crazy against her opponents in the allowance race. She’s a formidable opponent in terms of speed but starting position is far from ideal and her only win so far has come against a suspect group at Tampa Bay Downs; #7 FROM HELLO (8-1): Hasn’t won in a long time but has shown his ability against similarly strong opposition and made great strides to finish third last time out. Dylan Davis remains in the saddle and has been ridden as well as any other jockey at the meet so far.

Race 6

Braca

Irie Man

Dunedin Dam

#6 BRACA (4-1): Didn’t have a great trip in an off-the-turf race last time out but has shown some form and could be worth another try. The blinkers will be off for this one and a return to his two or three race form would give him a chance in what appears to be an enigmatic maiden claimer; #5 IRIE MAN (7/2): Probably lost all chances on starting position last time out and had to negotiate a way out of the Wilson Chute from a far outside starting post. This looks to be a more comfortable trip and his two race performance at a similar distance further down the state was much, much better; #3 DUNEDIN CAUSEWAY (8-1): Had plenty of chances but some of those runs came on turf and he’s not a turf horse at all. His last performance saw him finish second in an off-the-turf event and he should head in the right direction later on.

Race 7

Brave Luck (MTO)

Pay for the juice

Proud of the Army

#7 PAY THE JUICE (9/5): Made his debut last month with a solid third at this track, coming in late. He simply ran out of race distance that day, and should be much sharper in second place if you want a trainer whose horses often improve with experience; #3 ARMY PROUD (5-1): Was monotonous in this race, where he finished fifth after a wide distance. His lineage from the bottom suggests he’ll get better with a start under his belt, and Tyler Gaffalione will ride back for trainer Joe Sharp; #5 SON OF HONOR (8-1): Makes his debut and has a right to love the turf. This son of More Than Ready is out of a Dominus mare who was a winning turf horse during a very solid career.

Race 8

Brown entry

Carolinensiel

With momentum to the goal

#1 TAX IMPACT (6/5): She won the Grade 3 Eatontown at Monmouth last time and gets to run in this optional claimer thanks to a creative look by trainer Chad Brown. Her price won’t be attractive to those looking for value, but she’s one of the most likely winners on the card and will be bet accordingly; #8 CAROLINE STREET (8-1): Comes from Churchill Downs, and many horses who didn’t like the turf there have had success in upstate New York. Last time out, she took a middle course before settling for fourth, and she’s flashed plenty of talent at several points in her career; #4 SWOOP TO FINISH (12-1): Last time out, she had a strange track when battling for the lead. That’s not her desired track. She wants to sit back and, well, strike late, and a return to that position would give her a chance to take a big piece of it.

Race 9

Leeloo

Cousin Kristi

Delicate temperament

#7 LEELOO (6/5): Is a tail-ender in a race full of early speed and throws a big shadow on Union Avenue. She was last seen second in a similar spot at Aqueduct and made up a lot of ground in the homestretch that day. The faster they are early, the better their chances; #5 COUSIN KRISTI (6-1): Will be shipped to New York after spending a lot of time in Florida and could benefit from running against horses bred in the state. Her last two performances at Gulfstream have been solid and jockey Luis Saez has been stepping up in good fashion over the last week or two; #4 TRICKY TEMPER (4-1): Outperformed optional claiming opponents last time out, although it took a fantastic trip and a picture-perfect ride to do so. Two of her three wins have come on this main track and, although she is a three-year-old competing against older horses, her form certainly seems to be heading in the right direction.

Race 10

Camera (MTO)

Goa

barkeeper

#2 GOA (7/2): Making her U.S. debut for trainer Chad Brown after running well several times in France earlier this year. She’s getting Lasix for the first time here, and this doesn’t look to be the strongest race for this level. I expect the price to drop in the morning as a result; #10 MIXOLOGIST (5-1): Was an impressive debut winner two races ago before making a rather odd trip here last month. Perhaps she’s recovered, or perhaps she just wasn’t ridden optimally. However, I expect her to return to form here under Joel Rosario; #7 PROGENY (15-1): Was a decent fourth in a stakes race last time out and showed some pace on the day. I expect her to stand out from the start again here, and she could have enough talent to grab a piece of the pie at a high price.

Race 11

Not guilty (MTO)

Shakrache

Z-Train

#9 SHAKREVENGE (6-1): Was clear in the homestretch last time but was caught and had to settle for third. She’s had several sharp races already and Jose Ortiz should be able to get her to relax, which has been a problem. If that happens, I think she’ll be tough in Friday’s finale; #12 Z TRAIN (5-1): Has a terrible starting position but responded to the drop in class a couple of weeks ago when she finished third in a three-horse photo and was beaten by just a head. Frankie Dettori rides back for a stable that has had bad luck in this stand; #10 OUR FINEST HOUR (4-1): Takes another drop for high-percentage connections after finishing third here last month and drawing a $75,000 bid. She would benefit from a drop in pace and her class could make her a major contender.

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