The Miami football team is the unanimous favorite to win Saturday’s game in Florida by 2.5 points. The ESPN Football Power Index projects Florida with a 57.5 percent chance of beating Miami. Florida and Miami enter Saturday’s game with high expectations. Miami is predicted to have its best season since 2017.

Florida enters the 2024 season ranked No. 20 by the FPI and Miami is ranked No. 23. Given the challenging schedule, the FPI projects Florida to have 6.0 wins and 6.1 losses. Florida has an 83.3 percent chance of winning six games, a 0.6 percent chance of winning the ACC and an 8.7 percent chance of making the College Football Playoff.

If Florida were to shock the college football league and make the playoffs, the FPI doesn’t expect them to last long. Florida has a 0.7 percent chance of reaching the college football playoff championship game and a 0.3 percent chance of winning the title. Florida could likely make the CFP with eight wins in 2024.

According to FPI, Miami has 8.1 wins and 4.1 losses. FPI projects Miami has an 89.6 percent chance of winning six games and qualifying for a bowl game. The Hurricanes have a 10.9 percent chance of winning the ACC, a 17.6 percent chance of securing a spot in the CFP, a 1.6 percent chance of making the title game and a 0.4 percent chance of winning the title.

Florida needs a win before Saturday’s game, as it has five games in November against the top 13 teams in the preseason poll. The Gators need to get as many wins as possible between now and November to build the foundation for six wins and qualify for a bowl game. Miami’s ambitions for 2024 are much higher.

Florida has 14 starters back, signed the sixth-best transfer class, and its class of 2024 is ranked 13th nationally. Miami signed the fourth-best class of 2024 and added the 10th-best transfer class. Although Florida signed the higher-ranked transfer class, Miami has more top transfer talent.

Quarterback Cam Ward, running back Damien Martinez, wide receiver Sam Brown and center Zach Carpenter are all key starters for Miami on offense in 2024. Miami has rebuilt almost its entire defensive line through the transfer portal. Half of Miami’s edge rusher rotation and their top three defensive tackles are transfers.

Defensive tackle Joey Slackman and wide receivers Elijah Badger and Chimere Dike are key transfers to keep an eye on in Florida. Dike came from Wisconsin, where he previously played with Florida QB Graham Mertz. The transfer portal has helped Florida and Miami upgrade several positions and add experience.

The biggest difference between Florida and Miami entering the 2024 season is their projections in their conferences. Miami is projected to finish third in the ACC behind Clemson and Florida State. Miami hosts Florida State on Oct. 26 but does not play Clemson in the regular season.

Florida is ranked 12th in the SEC. With their November schedule coming off a 5-7 season, it will be difficult for Florida to compete in the SEC. Saturday’s winner will take a lot of pressure off their head coach. Saturday’s loser will have overrated their development under their current head coach.