In just a few weeks, the US Federal Reserve will announce victory over inflation.

But half of Californians disagree, according to a regular Census Bureau survey that looks at the intersection of social and economic issues, including how prices affect consumers’ psyche.

For the past two years, the country’s central bank has used high interest rates to curb overheated living costs. The tactic appears to be working, with the official inflation rate falling from a four-decade peak in 2022 to essentially average levels this summer. So at the Fed’s September meeting, central bankers will likely start cutting the interest rates they control.

However, my trusty spreadsheet examined the California portion of the survey and found that 51% of respondents described price increases over the past two months as “very stressful” or “somewhat stressful.” In addition, 32% of Californians found it “somewhat difficult” or “very difficult” to pay “usual household expenses over the past seven days.”

This gap between the Fed’s economists and the wallet of the typical Californian may now be a matter of concentration.

Yes, almost everyone agrees that the annual growth rate of consumer prices is currently subdued. But nothing the central bank does can offset the increase in the cost of living of around 20 percent in four years.

These price increases continue to place a heavy burden on the budget of the average Californian household and add additional worry and stress to life in the already expensive Golden State.

This economic discrepancy helps explain why consumer confidence in California – at least according to Conference Board measurements – fell to a four-year low in September.

Piece by piece

The census shows that one’s view of inflation is likely to be linked to one’s financial strength. Essentially, this is a debate between haves and have-nots.

If the paycheck is generous, you have a chance to avoid inflation. If it’s meager, good luck!

Consider that 72 percent of Californians whose households earn $50,000 or less a year are facing significant inflationary pressures. And 54 percent of these low-earners in the Golden State say they’ve had trouble paying their bills recently.

Conversely, if you look at California households with incomes of $150,000 or more, only 38 percent are worried about inflation and only 13 percent have trouble paying their bills.

This is a staggering range of money and a theme that runs across all demographics in the survey.

Gender: Men tend to earn more than women for a number of reasons. And 46% of California men have significant anxiety about inflation, and 29% have trouble paying their bills. But 55% of California women surveyed have significant inflation stress, and 35% struggle with payment problems.

Age: The older you are, the greater your financial security is usually.

For example, only 42% of Californians over 65 are worried about inflation and 24% have trouble paying their bills. By comparison, 49% of Californians ages 40 to 64 are worried about the cost of living and 32% have trouble paying their bills.

And then there are the young people, those aged 18 to 39: 57 percent of them are afraid of inflation, 37 percent are struggling with payment problems.

Education: School education is often linked to wealth creation. And this survey also shows an education gap.

The survey found that 56 percent of less-educated Californians — people with a high school diploma or less — experience high cost-of-living stress, and 39 percent have trouble paying their bills. But only 47 percent of more-educated Californians — people with some college experience or more — are very concerned about inflation, and only 28 percent have trouble paying their bills.

It’s a family affair

Marital status also influences financial stability. Think about what the survey tells us.

Marital status: Forty-seven percent of married Californians are seriously worried about inflation, and 26 percent have trouble paying their bills. Among the unmarried group – divorced, widowed, or single – 56 percent are seriously worried about inflation, and 39 percent have trouble paying their bills.

Household size: Cost of living concerns are lower when two Californians share an apartment. Only 43% of people in this housing situation have cost of living concerns, and 25% have trouble paying their bills. Let’s assume that most of these situations involve two incomes.

In single-person households, 51 percent of people are concerned about inflation, and 30 percent have trouble paying their bills. And among Californians where three or more people live under one roof, 53 percent are concerned about inflation, and 35 percent have trouble paying their bills.

Children: It is safe to assume that larger families in California have children – and therefore suffer additional burdens from the cost of living.

The survey found that 54 percent of Californians living with children are very worried about inflation and 38 percent have trouble paying their bills.

But among those without children, only 48% were afraid of inflation, while 28% had problems paying their bills.

Conclusion

The Fed is entrusted with thankless tasks that often require unpopular steps.

Think of all the people who are angry about the sharp interest rate hikes, especially the real estate industry, so reversing this policy without reducing the previous price increases will anger others, especially those who are still suffering from inflation.

And cost-of-living concerns aren’t just a strange nuisance in the Golden State. California’s inflation worries of 51% rank only the 33rd highest of any state.

The greatest fears were in Louisiana (59 percent of the population), followed by Indiana (58 percent) and Utah (57 percent). California’s major economic rivals also harbored major inflation fears: Texas came in 13th with 55.3 percent, followed by Florida with 55.1 percent. The least worried were Minnesota (39 percent), followed by Wisconsin (48 percent) and Vermont (45 percent).

As for the stress of paying the bills, California ranks 27th with 32% of its population.