It’s been a while since we’ve seen new candidates for development in the Atlantic, but this morning the National Hurricane Center highlighted two areas: a small but well-defined low-pressure area that poses no threat over the open Atlantic, and another disturbance that could consolidate by the weekend and move toward the easternmost Caribbean islands early next week.

An open Atlantic curiosity

The system with the most immediate chance of development is a small but persistent low pressure system just over the central Atlantic, a system that formed from one of the northward-moving tropical waves we discussed in this newsletter. It briefly showed organized storms on Tuesday before strong upper-level winds overtook the developing thunderstorms. Strong wind shear and dry air nearby should limit the chance of development, and anything that does form would be short-lived and pose no threat to land.

A look ahead to next week

We continue to track a system that could consolidate into the deep tropical Atlantic by the weekend. In general, models are cautious about its chances of developing next week, but given the time of year and its potential trajectory toward the islands, we will need to monitor trends.

So far, at least, forecast models have cooled this system down a bit. Its origins are a bit unclear, because whatever forms would come from a broad, elongated storm system stretching from Africa into the central Atlantic. We’ll have to watch over the next few days to see where anything clusters, if anything.

As we discussed yesterday, forecast models show the system approaching the Lesser Antilles at the entrance to the eastern Caribbean from Monday to Tuesday next week.

Our forecast models also predict another possible system moving away from Africa in the next few days.