Juan Soto’s impending free agent is one of Major League Baseball’s biggest stories this season, and we just got a clear indication of which direction it’s likely headed.
On Tuesday, ESPN’s Jeff Passan published an article previewing MLB free agency this winter, and Soto’s future figured heavily in it. Passan claims that almost everyone expects the decision on the slugger’s future free agent to fall between two teams: the New York Yankees and the New York Mets. And the cost will be as high as you expected.
While no one knows what Soto’s final price tag will be, Passan has an idea of where the bidding will start. He writes, “With that knowledge – the realization that age is as important as skill in baseball’s free agency, and Soto’s combination of the two is unique – the industry agrees that the floor on his contract will be $500 million.”
The minimum amount for Soto’s next contract will be the second-largest total contract in MLB history. And it’s almost certain there will be a bidding war.
Passan notes that while teams like the Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Angels, Los Angeles Dodgers and Chicago Cubs could probably afford Soto, they are all considered outsiders to sign him. So in reality, there are only two possible destinations. He wrote, “Ultimately, senior management and ownership sources believe the winter will go like this for Soto: Yankees versus Mets.”
None of this is a huge surprise. Many had expected the two New York teams to be in the running for Soto, and after Shohei Ohtani’s $700 million deal with the Dodgers last winter, the general consensus was that Soto’s contract would be around that amount.
Soto turns 26 on October 25th and will do so as an incredibly accomplished player. He is a four-time All-Star, a two-time All-MLB first team honoree, a four-time Silver Slugger Award winner and helped lead the Washington Nationals to the 2019 World Series title. Over the course of his seven-year career, he has posted a batting average of .286/.422/.536, with 197 home runs, 578 RBIs, a .958 OPS and an OPS+ of 161.
Soto is coming off a career year in his first season with the New York Yankees, which is likely driving up the price for potential suitors. Before Tuesday’s game, he has a batting average of .296/.427/.600, with 37 home runs, 95 RBIs, a 1.027 OPS and 109 walks with 91 strikeouts. Aside from the COVID-shortened 2020 season, his on-base percentage, slugging percentage and OPS are all career highs, while he has already surpassed his career-best of 35 home runs with more than a month to go in the season.
The battle for Soto will likely be between the two New York teams, and he will almost certainly receive the second-largest contract in MLB history.
