If we were to follow history and hold the election today on a scale of 1 to 100, Democrats would already have a 9-to-1 lead over former President Donald Trump. In our model, the black vote would account for 10% and the non-black (mostly white) vote would account for 90%.

This is not based on issues or records, but purely on identity politics. Can this change?

To do this, Trump would need a clear victory among white and/or Hispanic voters and/or a significant increase in support for Trump among black voters. Otherwise, we will likely have a President Kamala Harris and a Vice President Tim Walz.

The Democrats have exploited blacks and needed blacks to win elections. Not since President Lyndon Johnson in 1964 have the Democrats won the white vote in a presidential election. Really. It’s the blacks that have helped the Democrats win.

Here’s how it works: In a theoretical head-to-head race, over 50 percent would be needed to win. Among non-blacks, they are already behind 9:1 out of 100 points. That’s because more than 90% of black votes routinely go to the Democratic candidate and less than 10% of black votes go to the Republicans. Therefore, the Democrats only need to gain 41 more points to get to 50 points. The Republicans need a whopping 49 more points to get to 50.

Even if Trump had a 6 percentage point lead due to the 90% non-black (mostly white) population, he would still lose if turnout was equal for both groups. So a comfortable Trump victory among non-blacks of 48% to 42% would still mean a Democratic victory of 51% to 49%.

Black support for a black presidential or vice presidential candidate can even exceed 90% for the Democrats. Former President Barack Obama received nearly 95% of the black vote when he was elected in 2012, and Biden-Harris received over 95% of the vote among black women.

Harris was awarded the nomination. In the presidential election, she did not receive a single vote from registered Democratic Party voters. This would be the second time she did not receive any votes in the Democratic primary. The first time, she overtook others to get the position of vice president. This time, she was anointed by President Joe Biden and the leaders of the Democratic Party and named the presidential candidate within days.

Identity politics is nothing new. In Booker T. Washington’s book “Up from Slavery,” he says he once asked former slaves how they knew who to vote for. They said that if they knew what white people would do, they would do the opposite.

Identity politics was interrupted for several decades. In the 1950s, then-President Dwight D. Eisenhower in victory and Nixon in defeat received a significant percentage of the black vote, but not a majority.

The legendary civil rights leaders of the 1960s prided themselves on no party affiliation and advocated for African Americans like never before, helping to pass civil rights, voting rights, and fair housing laws, and ending segregation and racial discrimination.

Did the top Democratic Party politicians do enough to earn over 90 percent of the black vote? If so, the liberal media, an appendage of the Democratic Party, would have told you so.

Black Democratic politicians use tribalism to keep their identity politics going, but for the black community, their results have been negligible.