Legendary Democratic strategist James Carville warned Democrats against a false sense of security as polls show Vice President Kamala Harris leading the race against former President Donald Trump.
The longtime Democratic strategist warned Democrats during Friday night’s “Real Time With Bill Maher” that while Harris is currently ahead of Trump in the polls, he will have to work harder to win the Electoral College.
Harris is currently less than two percentage points ahead of Trump in national polls, according to a Real Clear Politics Average, but the former president is leading in several swing states. Poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight puts Harris ahead by 3.6 percentage points.
“I challenge Democrats here with some caution. First, most want to say we need to win the popular vote by three votes to win the Electoral College. So when you see a poll that says we’re two votes ahead, you’re actually one point behind if the poll is correct,” Carville said.
“The other thing is that Trump has a history of chronically underperforming in polls when he’s on the ballot,” Carville added.
At the end of August 2020, national polls predicted that President Biden would be 9 percentage points ahead of Trump – but his lead was only 4.4 percentage points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton was 6.5 percentage points ahead in the polls. As is well known, she won the popular vote by 2 percentage points – but lost in the Electoral College.
“Traditionally, when Trump is on the ballot, Democrats say, ‘Oh James, you’re a spoilsport.’ I’m not. I’m just telling you, you have to win by three votes,” the strategist added.
Other recent polls showed the former president with a slight lead. A Rasmussen Report poll on Friday showed Trump ahead by 49 percent to 46 percent.
The poll numbers are expected to change again after independent Robert F. Kennedy, who Rasmussen said was polling at 4%, dropped out of the race on Friday and endorsed Trump.
Although Rasmussen’s results are an outlier compared to recent national polls, the conservative-leaning firm was among those that came closest to the final result in 2016.
