Diamondbacks vs. Red Sox, 1:35 ET
Diamondbacks vs. Red Sox, 1:35 ET
The last two days haven’t been the best, as I lost a WNBA game for the third time in a row (this time with a catch) and yesterday’s FSU game gave me a loss early in the college football season. But we have sports every day, which means we can get that money back and then some! Baseball in particular is treating us well, as teams keep playing each other so we get to learn a bit more about how they perform in Games 1 and 2, and today Game 3 of the series between the Diamondbacks and Red Sox comes to a close.
The Diamondbacks may have played possum for a while this season. They looked like they were going to be a mediocre team that might just have one good year and make it to the World Series before falling to the Rangers. They’ve come through since then and are now nearly 20 games over .500 and just three games behind the Dodgers in the fight for the NL West division title. Unless they have a terrible September, the Diamondbacks should be back in the playoffs. If you asked what’s changed for the club in the last month and a few other things, I’d just tell you they’ve gotten healthier. They’ve hit well all season, but they’ve struggled with pitching. Today they have one of their starters, Merrill Kelly, who is reliable but has been injured for part of this season. Kelly comes to the mound with a 3-0 record, 3.63 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP. This is Kelly’s seventh start of the season and only his third since returning from injury. In his last appearance, he was rocked by the Rays, allowing six earned runs in five innings. Thanks to the Diamondback offense, he got a no-decision as they lost in extra innings. Kelly has held Red Sox hitters to a .194 average over his career, with Tyler O’Neill having nearly half the at-bats and the most experience against him.
May 31, 2024; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Tanner Houck (89) throws a pitch against the Detroit Tigers in the first inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Photo Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
At the start of the season, I said the Red Sox were probably one of the worst teams in the division. The pitching was significantly better than expected and it wasn’t just Rafael Devers who could help the offense this season. In other words, I was wrong. Then at the break, I put another bet on this team and said they were a good bet to make the playoffs at +100. Since the All-Star break, they have been inconsistent or consistently inconsistent – depending on how you want to look at them. If you look at their second-half results, you see a lot of “win three, then lose four, win two, lose two” situations. I also suggested they were going into the break winning over 85.5 games on the season. They might as well burn that ticket now, as they need to win 19 of their final 34 games. A bigger question is can they beat Kelly today? With Tanner Houck on the mound, they should at least have a chance. Houck has an 8-8 record and the fifth-best ERA in baseball at 3.01 and the 25th-best WHIP at 1.15. He has made three straight good starts and has not allowed more than two earned runs in any of the games. However, that has not translated into wins, as the Red Sox have lost six straight starts that Houck has made. The majority of that is the fault of the bullpen and cannot be blamed on him. The Diamondback hitters have only a .167 batting average against him in 24 at-bats overall.
The Diamondbacks have already won this series, but with the way they’ve been playing, I can’t imagine them settling for it to stay that way. I think there’s a good chance Arizona closes this series with a sweep. Houck gives me a little hope here, but I’m just going to skip the moneyline games in this one altogether. I think the real value is in the first five innings on the under. I like the game to stay under 4.5 at +120, but if you’d rather have the extra run, you can go under 5.5 at -135.
