As I do every year, allow me to do some humble bragging before we get into the meat of what I believe is the best draft day tool. (Yes, I’m biased.) I’ve been playing in money leagues for nearly 25 years, and high-stakes leagues ($1,000+ entry) for about 15 years. I’ve played in those high-stakes leagues during the leanest of times, in part because I knew I had an advantage over my competition. Does that always lead to a championship? Of course not. (The odds of winning in a 12-team league are 8.3 percent.) However, historically, I’ve won about one in five high-stakes leagues I’ve played in, and there’s never been a season where I lost money. Does that mean it can’t happen? Of course not. Still, I’m going to compare my success (and the success of many of my readers) to that of anyone else in the industry.
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Football is fundamentally simple but a very complex game when it comes to evaluation and analysis because 11 men try to work together harmoniously about 60 times per game while 11 other men make it their mission to disrupt that harmony. Professional football is not professional basketball because a team can vacate one side of the field if something goes wrong and the offense can still score. Neither is professional football professional baseball because a player can beat a pitcher and eight fielders by timing his swing just right. As great as Barry Sanders was, he never beat a defense single-handedly. In football, every player needs some help to achieve his goal. That’s part of what makes football so great, and part of what makes it so unpredictable. The violence of the game – even by today’s tamer standards – adds another element to the equation that’s hard to quantify.
But that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t try. In the last month, I’ve analyzed the weekly matchups of over 500 players. Just analyzing the matchups requires me to make over 8,000 “decisions.” Every year, my goal is to give those who trust my evaluations the confidence that they have the best tool available to them come draft day. Even if my evaluation process is only 70 percent accurate, that’s still a significant advantage over any analyst who doesn’t consider it at all.
Fantasy football is a stock market game, and an analyst’s job is to identify when stock prices are going to skyrocket or crash. While last year’s results help fantasy managers/analysts set the course for the next season, they are merely a starting point. Fantasy rankings and drafts need to be forward-looking, not reactive. I’ve been using this approach for more than 15 years. While some of the processes have changed in that time, the main goal has remained the same.
The Success Rating Index (SSI) below is based largely on my target and carry predictions. As always, the matchup ratings are included in the algorithm. SSI allows me to compare apples to oranges across different positions. Perhaps equally important, I was able to eliminate most of the guesswork across different rating systems (PPR, Standard, etc.).
For those who don’t know my Big Boards, I would first like to explain the color coding system:
Red – For lower level players, a red matchup is the most difficult a player can face, so for a second or third level player, you should lower your expectations of them. at least one level this week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). Elite players are expected to perform one level below their usual status (i.e. RB1 behaves like an RB2).
Yellow – For lower level players, he’s a marginal start at best. For a second or third tier player, defense has a slight advantage, which is basically neck and neck. For the elite players, expect a little above average performance.
White – This can go either way, but I prefer the player over the matchup. Generally speaking, these matchups can be won by players of all levels.
Green – For non-elite players, the stage is set for a productive day. For the elite player, this matchup could produce special numbers.
Note: Players with a 
next to their name have a certain level of injury/character/failure risk. In addition, for this round of Big Boards, I have added different levels (represented by the different colors in the Pos column).
Over the next week, I will be releasing my second and final Big Boards for Superflex, Standard, and FFPC leagues. I will also be sharing my final rankings for kickers and defense/special teams.
Here is the scoring system I used to rank players in the Half-Point PPR format:
Half-PPR
Doug Orth has been a writer for FF Today since 2006 and has been featured in USA TODAY’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He is also a high-stakes player who often appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, such as Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive.” Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.
