It was the best of times, the worst of times, the “meh” times. Much like the emotions of a kid entering seventh grade, the Phillies’ season has been a crazy rollercoaster. Where they are now on that ride, no one knows for sure, but let’s answer a few questions about them anyway!

If we’re being completely honest about this team’s chances of winning the World Series this year, Castellanos isn’t the most important player here. As in other years, it will all depend on how their stars play. While Castellanos has been a solid hitter since early June, he’s not a star. When we talk about the stars, we’re talking about Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner on offense, Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola on the mound. If those five falter in the playoffs, worrying about a World Series won’t be an issue.

In 2023, especially in the NLCS, it felt like Castellanos showed up in the most important situations and kept coming up short. But against the Braves, he may have been their best hitter. He was a driving force behind their win in that series, but he wasn’t the reason they lost to Arizona. He will certainly be important to whatever they can accomplish in October, but he won’t be the main reason for their success or failure.

Sure! He actually has a lot of them!

No, I understand what you’re saying. If it feels like Estevez has been throwing a lot of fastball lately, that’s wrong.

It looks like the Phillies have asked him to tone down his fastball usage a bit and go back to a 60/30/10 ratio since he signed with them. Personally, I’d like to see him use his changeup more often, as when he does use it, it’s a good swing-and-miss pitch.

Since it’s more of a feel pitch, Estevez may not like the way the pitch leaves his hand, so he tends to use the fastball more often.

Understandable.

If you want to use the fastball a lot, that’s fine – maybe just keep it away from the center of the batting pit more often than you actually do.

Burglary?

Injury?

Something else?

Without knowing all the information, what is “wrong” with Harper is pure speculation, but the way the manager talked about giving the players a rest makes one suspect there is at least a little bit of something wrong.

If health is anything to go by, I’d say it’s just a slump. There’s not much under the hood to suggest otherwise. At a time when it feels like the entire offense is in a slump, Harper will stand out because he’s the most important cog in the engine. Of course, you can hardly blame him, but as it is, he’s just stuck in a rut.

Why he is unable to free himself is something that Kevin Long and his colleagues should find out. If he can’t…

There are many reasons to believe in this team!

The biggest problem is pitching. In a playoff series, the best teams need to have three starters with playoff qualities; a fourth is a luxury many don’t have. If they don’t have those, elite bullpens with three or four relievers who can consistently get outs in tough situations are a must. How many teams have both types of pitching? The Phillies are one of them.

Look at the NLDS schedule this year. With no off days between games one and two and no off days between games three and four, the fourth starter will definitely be in action in this series. That means whoever has the better fourth starter, especially one that can get relatively far into the game, will have the advantage. The Phillies have four of those. They also have three relievers they can absolutely rely on (Strahm, Estevez, Hoffman), plus two others (Kerkering, Alvarado) that also have the potential to be reliable. Let’s also not forget that Tanner Banks and Jose Ruiz have been pitching well lately.

I know a lot of the frustration lately has been about offense, but in October it’s the pitching and defense that win. And the Phillies have those.

You just have to get in.

The idea that Dombrowski exhausts a system is a fallacy. I wrote a while back about the WAR of the players Dombrowski has traded away, both from his time in Detroit and his time in Boston, and that the more accurate description of his role as general manager is that he trades away his top talent when he sees a star worth signing (Miguel Cabrera, Chris Sale). That being said, the players he trades away aren’t that great. The talent he holds onto is talent he expects to make a difference in the organization, so if he sees something in top talent like Andrew Painter, Aidan Miller, Justin Crawford, etc., then those must be talent worth keeping.

As for forcing Austin Hays onto the team, who else is there? Brandon Marsh has been pretty bad since the All-Star Game, Johan Rojas has a luck-driven hitting streak that will likely bottom out once the pitching improves in October, and the last spot in the outfield is a revolving door of option players. Giving Weston Wilson more time would be understandable, but that might mean taking the pressure off him in the same way the team took a little too much pressure off Edmundo Sosa. Before making a decision on Hays, I’d give him the rest of the season to establish himself and get the regular playing time he never got this season in Baltimore.