RFK Jr.'s impending departure is the first good news for Trump in a month

The campaign of independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has announced that he will deliver a major speech about the future of his presidential campaign on Friday, one day after the conclusion of the Democratic National Convention in Chicago. Several publications have reported that he plans to drop out of the presidency – and that he is in talks to endorse former President Donald Trump.

This would be the first good news for Mr Trump since President Joe Biden abandoned his campaign a month ago and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris.

Why we wrote this

Ironically, Democrats have spent more than a year trying to attack Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and exclude him from the election, fearing he would steal votes from their candidate. Now his elimination could benefit Donald Trump.

Kennedy, a former Democrat whose late father and uncle are iconic figures in the party, could help bring the majority of his remaining supporters into the Republican ranks.

His support has slowly declined from a high of around 15 percent to 4 percent currently in national polls, with the majority of his supporters more likely to support Trump than Ms. Harris if he drops out of the race.

“It could help President Trump a lot,” said Dennis Kucinich, a former Democratic congressman who ran Kennedy’s campaign until last October. “Kennedy has support among populist Republicans and I’m sure he can win them back for Trump.”

President Joe Biden’s abrupt withdrawal from the 2024 presidential race immediately after last month’s Republican convention put an immediate end to former President Donald Trump’s success. Now a third-party candidate could get revenge by entering the Democratic convention just as their term is winding down.

The campaign of independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has announced that he will give a major speech on the future of his race on Friday, a day after the Democratic National Convention concludes in Chicago. Several publications have reported that he plans to drop out of the race – and that he is in talks to endorse Mr. Trump. That would be the first piece of good news for Mr. Trump since Mr. Biden abandoned his campaign a month ago and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris.

Kennedy, a former Democrat whose late father and uncle are iconic figures in the party, could help bring the majority of his remaining supporters into the Republican ranks.

Why we wrote this

Dennis Kucinich, a former Democratic congressman and presidential candidate who managed Kennedy’s campaign until last October, said he believed his friend’s exit from the race could significantly help Trump in such a close race.

“It could help President Trump a lot in the swing states where he and Vice President Harris are separated by one or two points,” he says. “Kennedy has support among the populist Republicans and I am sure he can win them back for Trump.”

Gain a strong following – then dwindle

Polls have shown for months that Kennedy is now more popular with Republicans than with Democrats. National and state polls once showed him winning slightly more votes from Democrats. But since Vice President Harris moved to the top of the ticket, she has won back many Democratic voters who were previously dissatisfied with their choices in the major parties – including many Kennedy supporters.

Kennedy’s support is slowly waning from a high of around 15 percent in national polls. It was at 8 percent in mid-July and has now fallen to 4 percent, according to the New York Times polling average. The majority of those who still support Kennedy now are more likely to support Trump than Ms. Harris if he drops out of the race. That could make a big difference in a presidential election where polling is currently a gamble.

Kennedy entered the race with some major advantages. First and foremost, his legendary name helped to attract interest and curiosity from the press. Long a popular environmentalist, he later became a more controversial figure due to his vocal public skepticism about vaccines. His anti-establishment stance attracted many voters who had become distrustful of institutions, especially in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Who RFK Jr. supporters could vote for now

Despite possible support, not all of Kennedy’s supporters would be willing to vote for Trump.

Ray Tretro, a retiree from New Jersey, has voted Democratic in the last two presidential elections but had planned to vote for Kennedy this time. He says he would “lose respect” for Kennedy if he supported Trump and would “most likely” vote for Ms Harris instead.

Vicki, a retiree from upstate New York who planned to vote for Kennedy, says she has already voted for Trump twice and “really didn’t want to do it again because the lesser of two evils is not OK with me.” But now she will probably reluctantly vote for Trump.

Kennedy and Trump have been negotiating for over a month about whether Kennedy should drop out of the candidacy and support the Republican ticket. Kennedy’s son posted a video to X in which the two spoke on the phone in mid-July, shortly before the Republican convention. “We would love it if you would do something. And I think it would be so good for you and so great for you. And we will win,” Trump can be heard saying to Kennedy. The two then met in person in Milwaukee.

On Tuesday, Kennedy’s running mate, billionaire Nicole Shanahan, said she and Kennedy are debating whether to stay in the race and “risk” a President Harris or drop out and “join” the Trump campaign.

Mr Trump told CNN on Tuesday that he would “probably” consider giving Mr Kennedy a role in his administration.

“I like him very much. I respect him very much,” Trump said. “He’s a very different guy – a very smart guy. And yes, I would certainly be honored by that endorsement.”

What the Democrats say about RFK Jr.’s departure

The Democrats, for their part, downplayed the impact of Kennedy’s resignation on the election campaign.

“He was a spoilsport from the beginning,” says former Democratic National Committee chairman Tom Perez, shrugging his shoulders.

“I didn’t think he was going to have that much influence. And at some point, I think he realized he wasn’t going to have that much influence,” said former New York Rep. Joe Crowley. “I think (his departure) is probably two-sided to some extent.”

Crowley says he knew Kennedy earlier, when he was a state legislator from Queens and an environmental activist who worked with folk music icon Pete Seeger to clean up the Hudson River.

“I think Pete Seeger would turn in his grave when he sees what Bobby Kennedy is doing politically,” he says. “It’s just the opposite of everything Pete Seeger ever stood for.”

Ironically, Democrats had spent more than a year harshly criticizing Kennedy and his campaign, fearing that he might steal votes from their candidate.