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The Red Sox play a clean game in their victory over the Astros, but still have little room for error


The Red Sox play a clean game in their victory over the Astros, but still have little room for error

The Red Sox are allowing so many runs that their postseason hopes are being dashed. The team led the major leagues in unearned runs allowed on Tuesday with 78, the team’s highest output in the last 20 seasons.

That proud 2024 total is inflated in part by the new extra-innings rules, which count the automatic runner as unearned if he scores. Still, the Sox entered Tuesday’s game having allowed 62 unearned runs in the first nine innings of games – again the most in baseball and on their way to 81 this year, a mark they haven’t reached in two decades.

In the age of modern defensive metrics like Statcast’s Outs Above Average, do unearned runs even matter anymore? For those who follow the game at field level, they do.

“That annoys every manager,” said Sox manager Alex Cora. ​​”If you play clean and don’t allow your opponent more than 27 outs, you have a pretty good chance of winning games.”

For the Sox, the numerous errors in defense were painful and led to setbacks in the fight for a wildcard spot.

What if the Sox hadn’t allowed an unearned run in the middle inning of their 5-4 walkoff loss to the Astros on Monday? What if they hadn’t allowed one in the eighth inning against the Rangers last Wednesday, in a game that ultimately ended in a 9-7 overtime loss? What if they hadn’t allowed five unearned runs in their 10-6 loss to the Mariners on July 30?

According to Statcast, the team is 15 runs below an average defensive team this year, the sixth-worst mark in baseball. That’s better than last year’s 39 runs below average, but the team’s goal after the 2023 season shouldn’t just be to improve a historically bad defense.

“We talked about it in the offseason,” Cora said. “We needed to play good defense, better defense. I think we’re playing better defense than we did last year. Are we perfect? ​​No, we’re not. We’ve got a lot of moving parts, a lot of young guys. They’re learning how to become a major league player in the middle of the playoff race, which is great for them. But at the same time, we’ve got to be able to slow the pace down.”

One evaluator praised the potential of Rafaela and Hamilton, but felt their inexperience hurt the Sox.

“You need experience in the middle,” the evaluator said. “Handling the ball at the crucial time is of great value to a pitching team.”

Another evaluator characterized the team as “better than in the past, but about average. Aside from a few individual players, it certainly has no strengths,” and there is a “big gap” at shortstop after Trevor Story broke his shoulder in April.

Rafaela’s ability to switch between shortstop and center is, of course, a rarity. But while he has the makings of shortstop, he doesn’t always manage to complete his plays.

He’s not an anchor in center field at this stage of his career. According to Statcast, he’s nine runs below average at short, the second-worst of any qualified outfielder at that position. (He’s four runs above average at center.)

Many experts see that number as a reflection of inexperience rather than talent. Still, it underscores the far-reaching impact of Story’s loss. The veteran was expected to provide top-notch shortstop defense, and Rafaela should do the same in center, while Jarren Duran (eight runs above average in center this year) provides excellent coverage in left field.

While Duran excelled in center, the Sox had slightly subpar defense in left field (one run below average, according to Statcast) and a year of being a mess at the shortstop position. Additionally, the team ranks in the bottom 10 in the major leagues in double plays converted, a particularly unfavorable statistic considering a team that features groundball-inducing stalwarts Tanner Houck and Brayan Bello.

“We talked about Trevor all offseason, that he would be the one to slow things down on defense and make plays. You see him catching ground balls. He’s one of the best defenders in the major leagues,” Cora said. “But like I’ve said all along: He’s not with us. Hopefully he’s with us at some point during the season. But we can’t think, ‘Oh, what if Trevor was here?’ No, no, no. That’s who we have.”

The Sox’s defensive woes this year aren’t due to a lack of effort. The 2024 Red Sox spend more time on pregame defensive work than any Sox team in the last 20 years – they literally work every day, unlike past seasons when there was organized infield work maybe once per series (if that).

Cora said the work paid off in the form of improved defensive performance from players like Hamilton throughout the season and the most consistent defensive performance from Rafael Devers in years.

Still, a question of standards remains. Are some players getting better defensively? Yes. But on a team that has an average strikeout rate (22 percent, 17th in MLB) and against which hitters put a lot of balls in play, the defense was not at playoff level.

“The work is there,” Cora said. “But numbers are numbers and people will use them as they need or want. We’re not considered a great defense.”

Even in 2024, this is unlikely and the team must accept that reality. Still, they will likely need to improve to still have hopes of a title.


Alex Speier can be reached at [email protected]. Follow him @alexspeier.

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