It has been a solid first half of the 2024 Formula 1 season, with seven different winners in 14 races. More surprises and shocks are likely to await us in the final 10 events as the grid tightens up.

Verstappen does not win more than 1 race

Based on the most recent races before the summer break, McLaren has caught and overtaken Red Bull as the fastest team. What makes matters worse is that Mercedes also appears to have transformed into a legitimate race-winning team. That’s bad news for Red Bull and Max Verstappen, whose dominance with the RB20 has turned into frustration.

Verstappen has won just two of the last seven races, having won five of the first seven. If McLaren revamps its strategy department, would it really be a surprise if the Dutch national anthem is barely heard again? Several unfavourable tracks – such as Baku, Singapore and Las Vegas – do not help Verstappen’s chances.

Ferrari wins another race

At the moment, another Ferrari victory seems far-fetched. The Scuderia has fallen back and is in no man’s land as the fourth fastest team, but the Italian team should not be written off just yet. Ferrari has big problems on tracks with high-speed corners, but there are also a few races coming up where a comeback is possible.

Monza – a track that favours engine power and straight-line speed – could provide some optimism for the home race. Baku and Singapore have always been strong circuits for Ferrari, and Charles Leclerc was a serious contender for victory on the streets of Las Vegas last year. It wasn’t Ferrari’s year (again), but the signs point to another victory for the legendary team.

Lawson finishes the season in the F1 seat

Red Bull has decided to keep Sergio Perez over the summer break because of his future performance at the tracks where he has performed well in the past. Perez was successful in Monza, Baku and Singapore, winning three of the next four races. But what if his problems continue? There is a month-long break between the Singapore Grand Prix on September 22 and the United States Grand Prix on October 20. If Perez cannot regain his form, Red Bull may use Liam Lawson during this break to finish the year. Finally, Helmut Marko said that we would have a clear idea of ​​Lawson’s future in September.

That’s probably Lawson’s easiest route to an F1 seat, but joining RB as a replacement for Daniel Ricciardo is another option. The senior team could pull the plug early if Ricciardo is not yet deemed Red Bull-worthy. Either way, Lawson feels he more than deserves to be somewhere on the grid.

An 8th driver wins a Grand Prix

The 2024 season is already characterized by the greatest balance in recent history. Since 1990, there has been the greatest variation in Grand Prix victories in a single season, namely eight, achieved in 2003 and 2012. With seven different drivers already having won a race and the RB20 stumbling, the “best of the rest” have a chance to equal the record.

Although Aston Martin has not scored as many points as it would have liked since Canada, Fernando Alonso is a former world champion for a reason. Nico Hülkenberg is showing promising approaches and could Finally with a little help, he could get his first win. Even Perez, despite a lackluster season, is still driving a Red Bull and can win in Mexico, his home Grand Prix.

McLaren wins the constructors’ championship

It should come as no surprise that Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri are at the top of the drivers’ championship, but McLaren will not be satisfied with that. Given Red Bull’s stagnating performance and Perez’s poor form, it is looking increasingly likely that McLaren will win the constructors’ championship for the first time since 1998 – before both regular drivers were even born.

The first wins by Norris in Miami and Piastri in Hungary show that the team is in top form. Norris’ 199 points are just six short of his 2023 season points total, and Piastri has long since surpassed his rookie points tally. Positive car improvements and a solid strategy have put McLaren in the driver’s seat and could cause Red Bull to struggle for the first time in three seasons.

Drivers’ championship decided in the last two races

It’s been a while since an F1 title fight was thrilling right to the finish. That outcome doesn’t seem likely at the moment, considering Verstappen is 78 points clear of Norris in second place and the McLaren driver has lost 25 points to the leader since Imola. Still, Norris has a good chance of challenging for the drivers’ championship.

With Red Bull on a downward spiral and McLaren the car to beat, it would not be a surprise to see Norris bounce back after the summer break and finish consistently ahead of Verstappen. Remember, one DNF is all it takes to tighten the title fight. If we can reduce the gap to 60 points, the championship fight will stay alive in Qatar, but if we are even more optimistic, perhaps another decision in Abu Dhabi is not crazy either.