BY Rajan Philips

Nominations for the presidential election were formalised on Thursday, leaving 37 days until the national election on September 21. There are 39 candidates in the race and one of them, President Wickremasinghe, has been assigned the “gas cylinder” symbol for the ballot paper. No more candidates or elephant rides for the UNP. Mr Wickremesinghe is running as an independent candidate, the last of the Lake House Mohicans, so to speak.

He could use the symbol of the gas cylinder to remind voters of how, as interim president, he restored supplies of goods that were in short supply under the previous regime. Hopefully, the government will ensure that gas cylinders do not explode in people’s kitchens. That would be tragic for households and could cost the candidate dearly at the polls. The gas cylinder could have been the only reminder of Sri Lanka’s Aragalaya experience had events in Bangladesh not stirred political memories in Colombo. Sri Lanka’s Aragalaya experience and results were far less severe or far-reaching than what Bangladesh has just gone through.

Not that Sri Lanka’s Aragalaya had any demonstration effect in Bangladesh; Imran Khan had previously refused to replicate it in Pakistan. It is just that the Aragalaya experience here provides Sri Lankans with a prism through which to look at events elsewhere, to compare them, and to remember that it is easier for bad history to repeat itself when one learns nothing (from the Aragalaya experience, for example) and has forgotten everything.

The comparison between Bangladesh and Sri Lanka is superficial. In Bangladesh, growing protests forced then-Prime Minister Sheik Hasina to flee the country seven months after winning her fourth consecutive election despite a brutal crackdown. All members of the Awami League government have disappeared, according to the newly installed interim leader, Muhammad Yunus, a Nobel laureate and one of the many critics and opponents of Ms Hasina who were effectively exiled or jailed during her long rule.

All of them are now free and the daughter of the Father of the Nation, Sheikh Mujibur Rahuman, is now a political refugee. Notwithstanding her remarkable achievements on the economic front. Her refuge in India will be a constant factor in the regional backbiting about the internal causes and external catalysts of Bangladesh’s sudden troubles.

The causes and consequences of the Aragalaya in Sri Lanka were much simpler and much easier to contain. Gotabaya Rajapaksa, to his credit, did not order a brutal crackdown, but that may also be because he was aware of his own limitations. He left the country but was allowed to return and live a reasonably good life at state expense. His nephew Namal Rajapaksa is now a presidential candidate after being nominated at a family poruwa. Notable were the absences, including Gotabaya Rajapaksa. This may be one of the more lasting effects of the Aragalaya – cracks in Rajapaksa’s political edifice. Namal Rajapaksa may be the last of the lesser Mohicans in Sri Lankan politics. His first candidacy may be his last, unlike Ranil Wickremesinghe who is contesting his last election and hoping to enjoy his first victory.

Polling pointer

According to the latest (June 2024) “General Election Voting Intention” poll data from the Institute for Health Policy (IHP), the SJB leads with 38% of voting intentions, followed by the JVP/NPP with 26%, the SLPP with 16% and the UNP with 7%. The other parties each account for less than five percent: ITAK – three percent, SLMC – two percent, CWC – two percent, SLFP – one percent and others – four percent. There are technical issues with the sampling and methodology of the poll. However, the periodic results could provide clues about any trends in approval levels.

Even the answers to the survey question “If there were parliamentary elections today, which party would you vote for?” do not directly translate into support for the candidates in the presidential election. Especially not for President Wickremesinghe, who is running as an independent candidate and hopes to receive votes from all sections of the population eligible to vote, and not just the seven percent of the vote based on support for the UNP.

Since the IHP poll gave the JVP/NPP its early lead of 31%, it is reasonable to interpret the new numbers as an indication of a downward or flattening trend for the JVP/NPP. Support for the JVP/NPP is likely to have fallen by five percent and support for the SJB to have increased by one percent. However, 26% is quite a jump from the 3.2% and 3.8% support recorded by the JVP/NPP in the 2019 presidential and 2020 general elections, respectively.

There is no doubt that support for the JVP/NPP has since grown to impressive proportions, but the question is whether this growing support is enough to make Anura Kumara Dissanayake one of the two frontrunners in the September elections. I say “the two frontrunners” because it is almost impossible for any of the three main candidates to be elected in the first round, and so the real stakes are to be among the two frontrunners in the second round of preferential votes.

Sajith Premadasa and Ranil Wickremesinghe have opposing reasons to be happy with the IHP’s poll results, despite all the limitations. The 38% support for the SJB is significantly higher than its 24% vote share in the 2020 general election. It is obviously lower than Sajith Premadasa’s 42% in the 2019 presidential election, and Mr Premadasa could use the 42% mark as a reason to be optimistic about getting over 35% in the first count. That is, if only Ranil Wickremesinghe would make it that easy for him.

President Wickremesinghe would try to capture as many votes from the UNP as Sajith Premadasa won in the 2019 Presidential election. The question is how many. Mr. Wickremesinghe might see it as a positive that the UNP’s 7% support in the IHP poll is more than three times the 2.15% of the vote the venerable party won in the 2020 General Election. As an independent candidate, Mr. Wickremesinghe would try to capture votes across the board, but the two main sources of votes he could draw on are the SJB (the old UNP account) and the SLPP. RW would have hoped to capture maximum votes from the SLPP account, which might have been possible had the Rajapaksas supported his (RW’s) candidacy.

But after Mahinda and Basil Rajapaksa betrayed Ranil and chose Namal Rajapaksa to succeed the family, RW’s earlier calculations may now have to be reconsidered. At the same time, the 16% support level for the SLPP in the IHP poll – down from highs of 52% in the 2019 presidential election and 59% in the 2020 general election – is indicative of the decline in support for the SLPP in the country or among the Sinhalese. Much of it would likely have defected to the JVP, and they are unlikely to defect to Ranil Wickremesinghe.

In other words, Ranil Wickremesinghe may be contesting with the smallest electorate and the weakest vote mobilization organization. While all three candidates are hoping for the support of Tamil, Muslim and Malayagha Tamil voters, not to mention Sinhala Catholic voters, RW may be the most dependent on them. The SLMC has already signaled its support for Sajith Premadasa and the CWC for Ranil Wickremesinghe. How the Tamil vote will pan out or whether ITAK will openly support any candidate is still unknown.

A joint Tamil candidate, if there is one, could be in a race to the bottom with Wijeyadasa Rajapakshe, who could present himself as the only authentic Sinhala candidate in the race. He apparently has the support of a third of the SLFP organisation, although none of the organisational candidates have any voter base in the country yet. It would be impossible to know where the pre-2005 SLFP voters are now, and that could pose a problem for Ranil Wickremesinghe.

Now, let’s turn to voter preferences for the second and third best candidates. Since there are 39 candidates on the ballot, any voter can vote for any of them and also indicate their second and third preferences. Since no candidate is likely to receive more than 50% of the votes in the first count, the winner must be determined from the top two candidates. This is done by eliminating the other 37 candidates and counting the second and third preferences indicated on the eliminated ballots for one of the top two candidates. In particular, the second/third preferences indicated on the ballots of the top two candidates are not counted against each other. Whoever receives the higher total after adding the preference votes is declared the winner.

Given their shared electoral loyalties, those voting for Sajith Premadasa would likely give their second preference to Ranil Wickremesinghe and vice versa. So if the two become the two leading candidates, their mutual preferential votes will be worthless. On the other hand, if either of them and Anura Kumara Dissanayake become the two leading candidates, Mr Dissanayake could be at a disadvantage when the preferential votes are counted. The Constitution also provides for the winner to be chosen by lot if two or more candidates receive the same number of votes. While that would be unlikely, the three main candidates could end up quite close. Choosing a winner from among them without a run-off is hardly a democratic exercise. This just begs the question: why does this system exist in the first place?