The Cleveland Browns signed quarterback Deshaun Watson in March 2022, even though they knew the deal came with risks.

The first involved his off-field conduct with the Houston Texans, which ultimately resulted in an 11-game suspension by the NFL for violating the league’s code of conduct.

Related: Deshaun Watson should not play in the final preseason game

The second was the $230 million, fully guaranteed contract the club gave Watson to entice him to waive his no-transfer clause and come to Cleveland. Barring anything unforeseen, that check would be cashed in full.

The final risk was the biggest unknown after Watson sat out the entire 2021 season because of his dissatisfaction with the Texans. Would Watson still be the same quarterback after missing so much time – nearly two years between regular-season games?

Related: Evaluation of the Deshaun Watson trade: 2 years later

The start of the third year of the Watson Experience in Cleveland is fast approaching, and two of the three risks have already been largely mitigated, but the last one still looms over the season.

Everyone on Cleveland’s side, from owners Jimmy and Dee Haslam to general manager Andrew Berry and head coach Kevin Stefanski, knew that signing Watson would cause catastrophic damage to the team’s reputation with fans and the media.

At this point, the PR damage has already been done and there is little the team can do to change it. The fans who were in favor of the deal are still on one side, while those who opposed the trade due to Watson’s legal issues remain firmly in their camp. This is not to say that one side is right and the other is wrong, but rather to point out that opinions are already set and nothing is changing on that front.

The risk that Watson could be sidelined by a serious injury or a series of injuries like the shoulder fracture that ended his 2023 season early and still have to pay the full amount of his contract remains. But that risk exists for every player, so there’s not much the team can do if Watson suffers another season-ending injury during his contract.

And although Watson’s contract is still being discussed (as The athleteWhile Berry has complained that the contract is “hamstringing” the Browns (as Dianna Russini does in the video above), Berry has had no problems signing the club’s core players or bringing in players via free agents, so the Browns have largely put that particular risk behind them, or can at least move it to the “manageable” column of Berry’s to-do list.

The final risk, namely Watson’s game, remains the wild card in all of this.

When the Browns signed Watson, they were betting he would return to the player who completed 67.8 percent of his passes and threw 104 touchdowns to just 36 interceptions in his four seasons with the Texans.

While Watson hasn’t been as bad as his critics make him out to be, he hasn’t been anywhere near the player he was in Houston. The sample size is small due to injuries and the suspension, but in his 12 games with the Browns, Watson has completed just 59.8 percent of his passes with 14 touchdowns and nine interceptions.

Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images

Even in his signature game, the 33-31 victory over the Baltimore Ravens in which he injured his shoulder last season, Watson completed only 58 percent of his passes, with one touchdown, one interception and four sacks.

The Browns have reached a point where it’s fair to wonder if Watson will ever be the quarterback he was with the Texans. Even though he only turns 29 in September, given what we saw during his time in Cleveland, the chances of him not getting back to his old form are probably as high as the chances of him making it.

This leads to the question of how good Watson has to be for the Browns to be successful.

No one would disagree if Watson started scoring five touchdowns, not throwing any interceptions on any day (which he did twice in Houston), or going through stretches where he completed 70 percent or more of his passes, as he did in a streak of 11 of 15 games with the Texans between the 2018 and 2019 seasons.

But what if Watson is out forever due to the injury, the suspension and the subsequent injury?

If that’s the case, the Browns could potentially be in the playoffs for years to come, provided Watson stays healthy and at least produces slightly above-average passing numbers thanks to a combination of factors, starting with Cleveland’s defense.

Photo by Joe Sargent/Getty Images

As exciting as the comeback win against the Ravens was for everyone, it was only necessary because the defense had such a bad day. If you look at the other games Watson played in in 2023, he was mediocre in the season-opening win against the Cincinnati Bengals and not much better the following week against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Had it not been for two turnovers by Watson that turned into defensive touchdowns for the Steelers, the Browns would have taken the win.

If the Browns defense can play the way it can and the other good players on offense do their jobs, the Browns may just need Watson to limit turnovers and put on a consistent performance each week and everything could be fine. Just look at last season’s games against the Tennessee Titans and Arizona Cardinals, games in which Watson was efficient and the Browns pulled out easy wins.

This may sound like trying to make Watson a “game manager” rather than a “difference maker” at quarterback, but if the Browns win, no one should complain.

An effective but not dynamic Watson may not have been what the Browns envisioned when they made the trade, but none of that matters anymore. They survived the PR blow and landed the big contract. Now the only risk is whether Watson can do his part every week to give the Browns a chance to win.

What that will look like remains to be seen, but everyone will find out in three weeks when Cleveland opens the regular season against the Dallas Cowboys.