The Kalen DeBoer era will officially begin when the Alabama Crimson Tide will face Western Kentucky in their season opener on August 31st.
The highly anticipated debut of the new Alabama head coach comes after he Washington to the national championship game last season. Replacing Nick Saban is a big task for any coach, but DeBoer’s past record speaks for itself, as he has only 12 losses in his career as a head coach. Still, many are curious to see how Alabama fares in his first season as coach.
Before his first season as head coach of the Crimson Tide, ESPN analysts used the Matchup Predictor to predict the outcome of all Alabama games this season.
August 31: Alabama vs. Western Kentucky – 97.4% chance to win
DeBoer’s first mission as head coach of the Crimson Tide will be to Mountaineers in western Kentucky at Bryant-Denny Stadium in front of a likely curious Crimson Tide fan base. ESPN is predicting a win significantly in Alabama’s favor, as they are 31-point favorites according to ESPN Bet.
He only has one chance to make a first impression – we’ll see if he can make the most of it.
September 7: Alabama vs. South Florida – 96.2% chance to win
The last duel of the season against USF was a bit of a fever dream. Now Notre-Dame walkable wide receiver Tyler Buchner started as quarterback for the Crimson Tide and defeated the Bulls 17-3 on neutral ground.
The 2024 edition of this duel will take place on the Crimson Tide’s home turf. This time, the final result is not expected to be so close, according to the matchup forecast.
September 14: Alabama at Wisconsin – 81.3% chance of winning
DeBoer’s first trip as head coach of Alabama, the Crimson Tide are still heavily favored in front of a crowd full of Wisconsin faithful.
Alabama has not played at Camp Randall Stadium since November 1928. However, the Tide won the last contest in September 2015, when the Badgers lost 35-17 in Dallas. Derrick Henry ran for 147 yards and three touchdowns.
September 28: Alabama vs. Georgia – 40.9% chance of winning
Arguably the biggest blockbuster game of the regular season, Preseason No. 5 Alabama meets Preseason No. 1 Georgia in Tuscaloosa for the first time since 2020. This clash will not only impact the race for the SEC championship, but could also play a role in how the playoff committee handles the CFP seedings.
Alabama has a 23-13-4 record at home against the Bulldogs and has won seven of the last eight games overall in the rivalry. This is the only game where ESPN’s matchup prediction does not favor the Tide.
Oct. 5: Alabama at Vanderbilt – 89.8% chance to win
According to ESPN’s Matchup Predictor, Alabama’s game against Vanderbilt in October is the easiest road game on their schedule, giving the Crimson Tide a nearly 90 percent chance of defeating the Commodores at home.
Alabama hasn’t lost to Vanderbilt since 1984.
October 12: Alabama vs. South Carolina – 86.2% chance of winning
DeBoer is now halfway into his role. How his team will perform remains to be seen – but a strong performance against South Carolina could prepare the Crimson Tide well for the upcoming difficult phase in their schedule.
However, Alabama cannot look ahead. Any encounter with an SEC opponent could be viewed as a trap in the home stretch.
October 19: Alabama at Tennessee – 58% chance of winning
DeBoer was in the 2022 loss against Tennessee at Neyland Stadium, but he doesn’t want Alabama fans to experience it again. The 52-49 loss, which resulted in uprooted goalies during the postgame field storm, was Nick Saban’s last trip to Knoxville.
Alabama rebounded last season, defeating the Vols 34-20 and winning 16 of the last 17 meetings in the rivalry.
October 26: Alabama vs. Missouri – 70% chance to win
Missouri‘S Luther Burden could be the most dynamic offensive weapon the Crimson Tide will face this season. Alabama’s defensive backs have proven to be elite players at the wide receiver position and will likely have their work cut out for them. After all, Missouri won 11 games last season and capped it off with a bowl win over Ohio State.
If the Crimson Tide aren’t careful, Eli Drinkwitz and Co. could make a strong statement in Tuscaloosa at the end of October, as ESPN’s matchup predictor gives Alabama a 70 percent chance of winning at home – the lowest since Georgia.
November 9: Alabama at LSU – 63.3% chance of winning
ESPN’s matchup predictor predicts this game will be similar to the road game against Tennessee, but gives Alabama a slight edge with a 63.3% chance of leaving Death Valley with a win.
LSU Alabama was also beaten in the 2022 season, for which the Crimson Tide took revenge last year. Still, LSU could challenge Alabama on the road after a difficult schedule.
November 16: Alabama vs. Mercer – 99% chance to win
After back-to-back matchups against Tennessee, Missouri and LSU, Alabama can now enjoy a home game against Mercer, and according to ESPN’s percentage data, this is the game they are most likely to win this season.
Two weeks before the Iron Bowl – this could get ugly.
November 23: Alabama at Oklahoma – 51.2% chance of winning
Alabama will play Oklahoma in Norman for the first time since 1970 later this year. ESPN analysts expect the Crimson Tide to come away with a win this season.
How Texas and OU will adjust to their new SEC environment in year one remains to be seen — but a home game against Alabama in November is the ultimate opportunity to prove themselves against a team expected to be one of the conference’s best. Still, Alabama is the favorite, if only by a few percentage points.
November 30: Alabama vs. Auburn – 80.1% chance to win
The Iron Bowl gave college football fans one of the most memorable moments of the 2023 season when Jalen Milroe hit Isaiah Bond in the back of the end zone for the game-winning touchdown on the road, breathtaking the Auburn Fans at Jordan-Hare Stadium.
This time, they’re in Tuscaloosa, where the Crimson Tide are clear favorites against their in-state rivals as DeBoer and Co. look to start the postseason on a winning note.
