For a while, Team USA looked unlikely to make the gold medal game, but the Americans overcame a 17-point deficit, including a 13-point deficit early in the fourth quarter, to beat Serbia and will now face hosts France in the final as clear favorites.

The Americans are favored by 16.5 points at BetMGM. The USA is -2000 on the moneyline, which means the team wins gold about 95 percent of the time.

This is the third smallest point difference for the U.S. men at these Olympics. The U.S. finished group play as a 13.5-point favorite over Serbia and was a 15.5-point favorite for the semifinals.

This is a rematch of the gold medal match three years ago in Tokyo. That time, France beat the Americans in the first group game, but the USA won the final 87-82 thanks to 29 points from Kevin Durant.

This year’s gold medal game between the United States and France will take place on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET in Paris.

Odds for the gold medal game USA vs France

The USA hasn’t lost this summer, even in friendlies, but has been tested by a few close finals. The 95-91 semifinal against Serbia felt like a final, even though it wasn’t one.

The atmosphere will be even better on Saturday as French fans hope to cheer their team to an upset. The Bercy Arena has rocked during France’s games this tournament, especially during knockout victories against Canada and Germany.

France struggled in the group stage, needing overtime to beat Japan and then losing heavily to Germany. Since then, home advantage has proved crucial, with Canada winning 3-0 in Group A, Germany 3-0 in Group B and the Americans 3-0 in Group C. France must beat all three teams in a row to win the country’s first gold medal in basketball.

Aside from the home field advantage, does France have the same firepower as Serbia to challenge the USA? Nikola Jokić influences the entire opposing defense. Frenchman Victor Wembanyama can influence the entire opposing offense. Serbia’s guards Bogdan Bogdanović and Aleksa Avramović scored strong goals. Who in France can do that?

Former NBA guard Frank Ntilikina scored five points in each of his last two games. Evan Fournier had 15 points against Canada, but only five against Germany.

France’s big players are Wembanyama, Nicolas Batum and Rudy Gobert, but Gobert has only played eight minutes in the last two games as France played with a smaller lineup (and Gobert is battling an injury).

From a basketball perspective, it’s easy to understand that the U.S. is the better team on paper, and the betting odds reflect that. Stephen Curry finally got going at the Olympics with 36 points in the semifinals, Durant had his incredible moments, LeBron James was a consistent all-around force, and Joel Embiid even had a nice comeback stretch against Serbia.

We just have to wonder how much crap Durant will spew on social media after the win, but it’s just one game and it’ll be on the road in front of a raucous crowd. Saturday should be fun.

(Photo by Stephen Curry: Ezra Shaw / Getty Images)