By CRISTINA JANNEY
Hays Post

Justice Planners, a prison consulting firm, told the Ellis County Commission on Tuesday that it projects the county will need more prison beds over the next 25 years.

Depending on the scenario, the agency estimated that between 90 and 174 beds would be needed by 2049, which could cost between $8 million and $32 million.

The commission did not make a decision on the prison on Tuesday.

The average daily prison population is 69 inmates so far this year, compared to 68.7 in 2023. This rate has remained relatively constant since 2017, with the exception of 2020 and 2021 during the pandemic.

Various factors influence the number of inmates in a prison and the number of beds needed to safely house those inmates.

The first of these factors is population. According to the Center for Economic Development and Business Research at Wichita State University, Ellis County’s population is expected to grow by 11.4% by 2050.

The county’s male population growth is estimated at 9.3%. 84% of the inmates at the Ellis County Jail are men.

The prison admits about three inmates per day, which has remained consistent over the past three years, although bookings have declined by 31 to 79 percent compared to the 2017-2019 pre-pandemic average.

Patrick Jablonski, a planner and statistician at Justice Planners, attributed this to several factors. The prison processes minor offenses quickly through the system.

These minor offenses result in release from prison in less than a day, while the average prison time in other communities the company has worked with is closer to two days, he said.

Although the average number of admissions has decreased compared to pre-pandemic levels, the average length of stay of inmates at the Ellis County Jail has more than doubled since 2017.

Jablonski said the prison was seeing an increasing number of inmates being held for more serious crimes and for longer periods of time.

Length of stay during the pandemic was higher in part because the prison released as many inmates as possible due to the risk of spreading COVID-19 infection, meaning only the most serious offenders were held, Jablonski said.

Jablonski presented a table showing the length of stay depending on the type of charge.

In 2022, inmates accused of violent crimes spent about 26 days in prison. In 2023, that number rose to 53 days, and in 2024, it almost tripled to 144 days.

“That’s the key to understanding the prison population. These individuals have committed serious crimes. I think it’s safe to say these individuals are a danger to the community. You want to incarcerate them,” Jablonski said.

“However, it takes longer to move these individuals’ cases through the court system, and that is the reason for the increasing prison population.”

As of early 2024, the number of cases filed in Ellis County courts far exceeded the number of cases resolved, but Jablonski said that may have been affected by the cybersecurity attack on the Kansas justice system.

The consultant presented the district commission with three possible scenarios to predict the possible development of the prison population and bed requirements in 25 years.

The first scenario assumes that current trends in Ellis County continue, assuming that the average length of stay for inmates will continue to rise, but admissions will remain stable, and it also takes into account the county’s expected population growth.

The shortage of lawyers is likely to continue to put pressure on the court system and lead to delays in processing cases, Jablonski said.

This scenario assumes an average daily inmate population of 102, requiring 131 beds.

For several reasons, the prison cannot operate at full capacity. Women cannot be housed together with men. Violent offenders are not usually housed together with offenders who have committed less serious crimes. Co-defendants must also be separated.

In addition, the prison must compensate for daily and seasonal fluctuations and peaks.

Based on a very rough estimate of $800 per square foot for the space to be added to the current prison, renovation costs could be approximately $18.9 million.

The second scenario assumes that the average length of stay of inmates continues to increase and the number of admissions returns to pre-pandemic levels.

Jablonski also said law enforcement might be less inclined to send inmates to jail if they knew it was overcrowded. He said once police officers and parole officers knew there was room in the jail, they might start sending more people to jail.

“The old adage: If you build it, they will come is true to a certain extent. When we talk to stakeholders, they are aware of the capacity of the prison,” Jablonski said. “I see a realistic scenario where our status quo may be a little too low and more people will have to return to custody.”

A change in the district attorney’s philosophy could also affect the number of people admitted to prison.

In the second scenario, 174 beds would be required. A rough estimate, also based on the cost of 800 square feet, would be about $32.9 million.

The current facility also lacks program space and the kitchen is inadequate.

The third scenario assumes that admissions and the average length of stay of inmates will return to 2019 levels. This would require the construction of 18 additional beds for a total of 90 beds.

The prison still needs to address the lack of program and counseling rooms as well as an inadequate kitchen. New living quarters are planned as single cells.

The estimated cost to meet this need is approximately $8.1 million.

Alan Richardson, president of Justice Planners, said prison design must also take staff into consideration.

“They spend more time in this facility than offenders and inmates ever will, and you have to provide them with a good and safe working environment, and I think that’s kind of the limit in terms of what they’re having to work with right now.”

To counteract overcrowding, justice planners offered several short-term expansion options.

• Relocation of the kitchen and laundry room to the ground floor – thus additional space for four to six inmates
• Relocation of storage in the training area to another location or building – thus providing additional space for three to four inmates
• Continue to house prisoners outside the district

Richardson said the county already houses inmates outside the county, but transportation is expensive, inmates’ access to the courts and their families is limited, and future bed availability is uncertain unless the county signs long-term contracts.