Illinois football season begins in 15 days, and the team is preparing for its 100th season at Memorial Stadium. The Illini finished 5-7 last year and suffered several close losses, including a Week 12 loss to rival Northwestern that eliminated them from the bowl.
ESPN has released its FPI predictions for every Illinois football game in 2024. Since college football is an unpredictable sport, the projections do not accurately predict how the Illini will perform.
BetMGM puts Illinois’ over/under total at 5.5 wins, which is just short of a bowl berth. Should Illinois qualify for a bowl game, it would be its first appearance since January 2023.
FPI forecast: Illinois has a 97.8% chance of winning.
Illinois opens the season with a nonconference game against Eastern Illinois, the first of three consecutive home games to start the season. Although Eastern Illinois finished 8-3, it never faced an FBS or big-name opponent, while Illinois played the best of the best in the Big Ten. Barring anything catastrophic, the ESPN FPI foresees a near-guaranteed win for Illinois and a 1-0 start.
FPI forecast: Illinois has a 30.2% chance of winning.
Illinois will face a tougher matchup in its Week 2 return game against the Kansas Jayhawks from 2023. This was Illinois’ first loss in the FBS a year ago, and ESPN expects a similar story here. Kansas finished 9-4 after a 5-1 start, defeating Illinois 34-23. The FPI doesn’t give the Illini the biggest lead, coming in at 30.2%. If ESPN’s projections hold true, Illinois will go into its home game at 1-1.
FPI forecast: Illinois has a 79.1% chance of winning
Another winnable game ends Illinois’ three-game home series against Central Michigan. While Illinois is prone to unexpected home losses (including a last-minute loss to Eastern Michigan in 2019), ESPN gives Illinois a nearly 80% chance of winning. That puts Illinois’ record at 2-1 heading into Big Ten competition.
FPI forecast: ESPN has no
Illinois and Nebraska will meet for the fourth time in the last six years, but this time the game will be played in Lincoln, Nebraska. Illinois lost to the Cornhuskers 20-7 last year, with the Illini struggling to move the ball and never holding the lead throughout the game. ESPN likely views the game as a fluke, as Matt Rhule was on the verge of the best season in recent Cornhuskers history. It is Illinois’ Big Ten opener and the first of two consecutive Big Ten road games.
FPI forecast: Illinois has a chance of winning of 8.3%
Illinois lost to Penn State last year when the Nittany Lions avenged a nine-overtime thriller two years earlier. Penn State is one of the perennial favorites to battle for a College Football Playoff spot, making the Illini’s second Happy Valley trip under Bret Bielema a potentially tougher task than the last meeting.
FPI forecast: Illinois has a 58% chance of winning
Illinois will try to reclaim the Cannon Trophy when it welcomes Purdue and Ryan Walters to Champaign for a game in mid-October. It will be Walters’ first visit to Champaign in two seasons, where he once served as the team’s defensive coordinator. The Illini will likely need a win here to stay in the bowl race, as they were crushed 44-19 last year in West Lafayette, Illinois’ first away conference game of the season. Illinois has a 58 percent chance of winning, as Purdue is still rebuilding in Walters’ second year.
FPI forecast: Illinois has a 20.4% chance of winning
The defending national champion Michigan Wolverines come to Champaign to spoil the festivities for the rededication of Illinois’ Memorial Stadium, which is dedicated to its 100-year history. At this point in the season, the Wolverines will likely be undefeated or need to take a loss to stay in the fray of the College Football Playoff. Given that difficult task, ESPN isn’t a big fan of the Illini’s chances, billing the game as a potential loss with a 20.4% win probability, similar to their 2022 meeting with the Wolverines in Ann Arbor and 2019, which also took place in Champaign.
FPI forecast: Illinois has a 5.5% chance of winning
The most challenging game on Illinois’ schedule comes in late October, when the team makes its first cross-country trip in the new 18-team Big Ten to Eugene, Oregon. The Ducks are another potential Big Ten heavyweight who will likely be fighting for their Big Ten and CFP title chances at this point in the season. ESPN projects this game to be an upset for Illinois that is close to a miracle, giving the team a 5% chance of winning, according to the FPI Power Index.
FPI forecast: Illinois has a 54% chance of winning
The Illini face Minnesota for the first time in five years on Dad’s Weekend, as this is a team Illinois has been consistently better against in recent years. Illinois won a thriller in Minneapolis in 2023 thanks to a late touchdown pass from John Paddock late in regulation, denting the Golden Gophers’ Big Ten West title hopes. Although expectations are high almost every year under PJ Fleck, the Gophers seem to fizzle out starting in November, which is probably why ESPN thinks Illinois can win again at home.
FPI forecast: Illinois has a 60.4% chance of winning
Unlike its neighbors, Michigan State might actually be an easier opponent for Illinois, as ESPN’s FPI favors the Illini by a large margin at 60.4%. The Spartans are under a completely new regime following the firing of coach Mel Tucker and will likely be playing for pride and attitude this late in the season. The Spartans may have beaten Illinois in 2022, ending its stranglehold on the Big Ten West with just a few games left, but these two teams are in very different places. Not to mention, it’s Senior Day for Illinois, which may give the team some extra motivation.
FPI forecast: Illinois has a 33% chance of winning.
Simply put, Rutgers is the better team on paper, so ESPN has Illinois’ odds lower at 33%. But Bielema has pulled off upset wins on the road before, including a last-second victory at Maryland in mid-October last season.
FPI forecast: Illinois has a 44.2% chance of winning
The Illini are looking for their first win over the Wildcats in two seasons. The game isn’t a true road game for Illinois, as it’s being played at neutral ground, the home of the Chicago Cubs, Wrigley Field. Both fan bases will likely show up in droves, as bowl implications could be at stake. Although Northwestern is projected to win, according to ESPN, it’s a close race, with the Illini having a 44.2% chance of bringing home the Land of Lincoln Trophy once again.
Illinois is seeking its second winning season under Bielema after finishing 8-5 in the 2022-23 season and losing to Mississippi State in the ReliaQuest Bowl.
Zain Bando is a staff writer for Illinois Fighting Illini On SI. You can reach him at [email protected] or follow him on X @zainbando99
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