The college football season begins in a few weeks. ESPN FPI has confirmed its preseason projections for every game on the 2024 BYU football schedule. FPI projects the Cougars to have a 4.8-7.2 record in 2024, which is largely in line with Vegas’ expectations for BYU. The Cougars will be favored in just three games, according to FPI, and have a 35.4 percent chance of winning six. Here are the game-by-game projections for every game on the schedule.
FPI forecast: BYU 89.7% chance of winning
BYU will start the 2024 season with a home game against FCS opponent Southern Illinois. This is a good opportunity for the Cougars to prepare, as they have a very challenging schedule ahead of them for the rest of the season. BYU has never lost to an FCS opponent, but FPI gives Southern Illinois a 10.3 percent chance of pulling off the upset.
FPI forecast: BYU 19.7% chance of winning
SMU won the 2023 AAC championship. The Mustangs will be members of the ACC in the 2024 season. Road wins in the state of Texas have been hard to come by, and this will be a very challenging game for BYU. According to FPI, this is the most challenging game on the 2024 schedule.
FPI forecast: BYU 60.9% chance of winning
If you look up “trap game” in the college football dictionary, it might just be BYU-Wyoming in 2024. Wyoming will be the second straight road game for BYU. Wyoming fans hate BYU and this will be the most important home game for a Wyoming team that has proven to be dangerous in recent years. If BYU wants to make a bowl game in 2024, this is a game they absolutely must win.
This is one of three games where BYU is the favorite, according to FPI’s preseason projections. The Cougars have a 60.9 percent chance of winning in Laramie.
FPI forecast: BYU 27.9% chance of winning
BYU begins its conference season at home against Kansas State. Kansas State has established itself as one of the top teams in the conference. This game will test BYU’s defensive front seven.
This will be Avery Johnson’s first road start in a conference game. According to FPI, BYU has a 27.9% chance of winning.
FPI forecast: BYU 34.0% chance of winning
The last time BYU played at Baylor, the Bears overwhelmed the Cougars on their way to the Big 12 title. Baylor was arguably the worst team in the conference in 2023. FPI still rates Baylor’s chances of winning at home positively.
FPI forecast: BYU 33.8% chance of winning
After an off week, the Cougars host Arizona for their second home game of the conference. The Wildcats have some of the best players in the country and are led by star quarterback Noah Fifita. If Arizona can improve their offensive line, they will be very, very difficult to beat.
FPI gives BYU a 1-3 chance to win this game.
FPI forecast: BYU 30.2% chance of winning
A Friday night game at Lavell Edwards Stadium. Oklahoma State is one of only two conference opponents BYU will face in its first two seasons in the Big 12. The Cowboys, who lost to Texas in the Big 12 championship, have to come to Provo this time.
BYU has been very good at revenge games. The Cougars have a chance to get revenge after losing to the Cowboys in double overtime in November. FPI gives BYU a 30.2 percent chance to get revenge and beat the Cowboys.
FPI forecast: BYU 22.7% chance of winning
BYU will face UCF as a conference opponent for the first time in 2024. An extra day to prepare will come in handy. The Knights have quickly become one of the conference’s top recruiting programs. UCF will have the speed advantage, so the Cougars will need to win this game in the trenches.
According to FPI, this is the second most challenging game on BYU’s schedule.
FPI forecast: BYU 24.0% chance of winning
The BYU-Utah rivalry is back on the biggest stage it has ever seen. According to FPI, BYU has a 24.0% chance of pulling off an upset and beating the Utes.
FPI forecast: BYU 27.5% chance of winning
After what will likely be an emotional game against Utah, BYU returns home to face Kansas.
FPI forecast: BYU 42.4% chance of winning
This is a road game, but BYU fans will come in droves to support the Cougars in the desert. Arizona State was not a good team in 2023. According to FPI, this is one of the more winnable games in the conference, but Arizona State is still the favorite.
FPI forecast: BYU 62.6% chance of winning
Houston comes to Provo for the first time as a member of the Big 12. With new coach Willie Fritza at the helm, Houston will look to earn its first win against BYU. Houston is 0-3 overall against BYU.
According to FPI, BYU has an advantage here with a 62.6% chance of winning.
