The 2024 college football season is approaching and Virginia Tech is hoping they can live up to the hype surrounding this team. The Hokies are considered by many to be underdogs for the ACC title game due to their high power and favorable schedule. Will that mean a great season?

ESPN uses its FPI (Football Power Index) as an advanced analytics model to analyze matchups and predict outcomes. In ESPN’s own words: “FPI is a prediction rating system designed to measure the strength of teams and project future performance. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams from 1 to 128, but rather to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever released the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely be very similar to FPI.”

ESPN’s FPI predicted every game on Virginia Tech’s schedule and here are the results.

Game 1 at Vanderbilt: ESPN’s FPI gives Virginia Tech a 58 percent chance of winning (1-0 record, 0-0 ACC)

I think the odds should be higher on this game because Virginia Tech is much more talented than Vanderbilt across the board and the Commodores don’t have home field advantage. I’m confident Virginia Tech will win this game, and by a large margin.

Game 2 against Marshall: ESPN’s FPI gives Virginia Tech a 75 percent chance of winning (2-0, 0-0)

Marshall isn’t a bad Sun Belt program, but I don’t think they can compete with this Virginia Tech team, especially in Blacksburg.

Game 3 at Old Dominion: ESPN’s FPI gives Virginia Tech a 75 percent chance of winning (3-0, 0-0)

Old Dominion has given Virginia Tech a lot of trouble in the past, but it won’t be like that this year. The Hokies will go on the road and get the job done and not stumble.

Game 4 vs. Rutgers: ESPN’s FPI gives Rutgers a 51% chance of winning (3-1, 0-0)

While I believe this will be a close game and Virginia Tech’s first real test of the season, I believe home field advantage will give them the win. However, like Virginia Tech, Rutgers is very productive and will be very tough on defense. Expect a close game, but I disagree with FPI’s outcome here.

Game 5 in Miami: ESPN’s FPI gives Miami a 73% chance of winning (3-2, 0-1)

This is one of the most important games on Virginia Tech’s schedule, and it would be disappointing to lose a second straight game before September. The Hurricanes are expected to be contenders in the ACC and have a full roster at their disposal, and this test on Friday night will be one of the toughest of the year for the Hokies.

Game 6 at Stanford: ESPN’s FPI gives Stanford a 56% chance to win this game (3-3, 0-2)

Yes, FPI actually predicts Stanford to beat Virginia Tech. Although the trip to the West Coast is tough after a road game in Miami, Stanford is rated as one of the worst teams in the ACC. I quite like Virginia Tech in this game. A 3-3 start for the Hokies after all the hype in the offseason would be disappointing to say the least.

Game 7 against Boston College: ESPN’s FPI gives Virginia Tech a 63 percent chance of winning (4-3, 1-2)

After a week off, FPI has Virginia Tech back on track against Boston College and new head coach Bill O’Brien. The Eagles have an interesting roster, but it could be a rocky first season for O’Brien.

Game 8 vs. Georgia Tech: ESPN’s FPI gives Virginia Tech a 60 percent chance of winning (5-3, 2-2)

This could be one of the tougher games on Virginia Tech’s schedule. The Yellow Jackets have one of the best offenses in the ACC and their defense could be a lot better, but playing in Blacksburg gives the Hokies an advantage over FPI.

Game 9 in Syracuse: ESPN’s FPI gives Virginia Tech a 56% chance of winning (6-3, 3-2)

Another game that FPI rates as a no-win, but they give the Hokies an advantage on the road. Syracuse has a new head coach and former Ohio State quarterback Kyle McCord could shake up the passing game. This could be a secretly good team this year and Virginia Tech will have to earn the win.

Game 10 against Clemson: ESPN’s FPI gives Clemson a 69 percent chance of winning (6-4, 3-3)

This is one of the other games Virginia Tech has marked on their calendar, but FPI sees Clemson as the clear favorite in this game. The Tigers still have one of the most talented rosters in the league, but there are some issues at certain positions. This would be a huge win for the Virginia Tech program if they could beat the Tigers.

Game 11 at Duke: ESPN’s FPI gives Duke a 52% chance of winning (6-5, 3-4)

This is another game I completely disagree with, similar to Stanford. Duke has been losing a lot since the Mike Elko era and I don’t think Manny Diaz has enough on his team to compete in a bowl game this year. I think Duke might be one of the worst teams in the ACC and I think Virginia Tech wins this road game.

Game 12 against Virginia: ESPN’s FPI gives Virginia Tech a 67 percent chance of winning (7-5, 4-4)

Virginia Tech continues to dominate against their in-state rival. The Hokies have dominated this series and I believe that will continue in 2024.

Of course, it would be a disappointing season if Virginia Tech ended up 7-5 and lost to Stanford and Duke, but I don’t think that will happen. This is a veteran team that will have a strong running attack and a very good defense. I believe ESPN’s FPI is wrong in many ways for Virginia Tech this season.