Details of the fourth game of the series from today, August 11, 2024
Philadelphia Phillies at the Arizona Diamondbacks Series Game 4
Pitcher on Sunday night: Phillies Sanchez, Kelly D-Backs
Today’s game is on Sunday, August 11th
08/24/11 4:10:00 PM EST First Pitch @ Chase Field
Prediction for today’s Phillies vs D-Backs game
The Arizona Diamondbacks host the Philadelphia Phillies on August 11, 2024. It’s shaping up to be a crucial matchup between two competitive National League teams. Both clubs are in the thick of the playoff battle, with the Diamondbacks sporting a 65-53 record and the Phillies sporting a 69-48 record. In their last meeting, the Diamondbacks fell short against the Phillies, and if they face off again, there’s a lot at stake for both sides. The Diamondbacks will send Merrill Kelly to the mound, who has been effective this season with a 2-0 record and an impressive 2.19 ERA in four starts. However, advanced indicators suggest he may have gotten a little lucky, as his 3.67 xFIP indicates a potential decline. Kelly’s ability to limit walks – just 6.5% this year – will be crucial against a Phillies lineup that ranks fourth in the MLB in walks. On the other hand, Cristopher Sanchez, who is set to start for the Phillies, has also had a solid season, posting a record of 8-7 with a 3.27 ERA. Sanchez’s 2.76 FIP suggests he may have had some bad luck and could be ready for a bounce back. However, he has struggled with strikeouts recently, averaging just 3.8 Ks per game. Offensively, the Diamondbacks are ranked 5th in the MLB, while the Phillies are 8th. Arizona’s Jake McCarthy in particular has hit his stride, leading the team with 9 hits and 8 RBIs over the last week. Kyle Schwarber, meanwhile, has been a force for Philadelphia, posting a .429 batting average and a staggering 1.587 OPS over the same period. In a matchup with a game total of 9.0 runs, projections suggest that the Diamondbacks are expected to score around 4.47 runs while the Phillies are expected to score around 5.01 runs. Given the dynamics of this game, it promises to be a hard-fought duel.
Explanation of the prediction for Game 4 of the Sunday Series for the Phillies vs. D-Backs duel
The Arizona Diamondbacks have 8 hitters in the projected batting order that will have the platoon advantage over Cristopher Sanchez in tonight’s game., Cristopher Sanchez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160), Bryce Harper has had positive variance on his side when it comes to his home runs so far this year; his 34.9 HR per 600 batting appearances is a good bit higher than his expected HR/600 of 23.2 based on the leading projection system’s (THE BAT X) interpretation of Statcast data., Bryce Harper – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160), Kyle Schwarber is pulling a lot of his fly balls (39.8% – 98th percentile), but he might have a hard time getting over the third-deepest RF fences in baseball in today’s matchup., Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160), In his last start, Merrill Kelly performed well, conceding 1 ER., Arizona Diamondbacks – 1. Five Innings (F5) Moneyline, Jake McCarthy has batted primarily in the back half of the lineup this year (74% of the time), but he’s expected to start second in the batting order in this game., Jake McCarthy – Over/Under 1.5 hits (+190/-255), Prospective catcher Jose Herrera is projected to be a terrible pitch framer according to the leading prediction system (THE BAT)., Merrill Kelly – Over/Under 4.5 strikeouts (-110/-120), Geraldo Perdomo has scored more runs in 9 of his last 14 games (+10.40 units / 74% ROI), Geraldo Perdomo – Over/Under 0.5 runs (+205/-280)
Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and vice versa). If multiple hitters have this advantage over the pitcher, it can have a big impact on whether he performs well or struggles on a given day., xHR uses sophisticated Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can., This player’s ability isn’t a particularly good fit for the park he’s playing in today, which can lead to a worse-than-usual performance., A pitcher who was strong in his last appearance may be good again in his next appearance., The higher up in the order a player bats, the more appearances at the batting plate he gets and the more opportunities he has to hit the over in each market. A player batting higher in the order than he normally would can provide additional value opportunities, as the market can be based on him batting lower down. Pitch framing is the ability of a catcher to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, thereby “stealing” strikes from his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (such as strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (such as walks or earned runs).
