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2024 MLB Week 21 FAAB Insights


2024 MLB Week 21 FAAB Insights

If you’re still reading this column at this point in the year, you’re probably well ahead of your leaguemates and probably still in contention for the fantasy baseball championship. Meanwhile, other guys in your league are turning their focus to fantasy football mock drafts and wondering which running back will fall to them in the middle of the third round. Now is the time to take advantage of the complacency of the entire league and jump up the standings by grabbing valuable FAAB assets.

There has been a lot of movement around the league in recent weeks as contending teams obsessively try to improve their rosters through waivers and teams that are out of contention try to evaluate young talent for next year and beyond. Take San Francisco, for example – Camilo Doval was recently reassigned directly to the minor leagues after previously holding the role of closer for several years. MLB teams are constantly trying to improve their rosters and as fantasy managers, we should do the same.

As a reminder, we’re focusing on players who are 20-25% of the roster in most 12-man leagues and/or 25-50% in 15-man leagues. Every league is different, so we won’t label player bids with any sort of recommended dollar amount, but instead will use a four-tier investment rating system ranging from minimal spend to a potential difference-maker (or LEAGUE WINNER, if you will).

Investment valuation system

SEVEN GAMES: BAL, CIN, HOU, LAA, NYM, OAK, PIT, SDP, TBR, TOR

Doughs

Outfielder

Kerry Carpenter ($$$): Coming back from injury, Carpenter hit three home runs in his first two games since May, reminding fantasy managers just how influential he can be as a hitter. Carpenter is available in nearly 75% of 15-team leagues and is a must-have for the final stretch of the season in nearly any format. Although the Tigers don’t have much left to contend for, Carpenter is arbitration-eligible this offseason, meaning he’s as motivated as anyone to perform in the final month or two of the season.

Gavin Sheets ($$): It’s fine to add a White Sox player to the roster. As long as he’s productive. And Sheets has definitely been productive over the last few games, having a 13-for-24 streak going into the weekend. He’s eligible for both the outfield and corner infield, and if he keeps it up, he can get power and RBIs on the cheap. Thankfully, wins are just a pitching stat, so you don’t have to worry about that.

Jordan Walker ($$): Don’t give me hope, Jordan Walker. I’ve given up on this guy several times now, and he keeps pulling me back. Walker thrived in AAA, posting a .343 batting average in his last 75 plate appearances before being recalled to St. Louis. When he finally breaks through, he has the potential to win the league. If he keeps up the pace, I might finally be able to give up on him.

David Peralta ($): The freight train is leaving again, this time with the San Diego Padres. Peralta has hit 12-for-29 with three home runs, seven RBIs and six runs scored in fantasy Weeks 20 and 21 and is virtually undrafted. He is the strong side of the platoon in San Diego and will likely start at least four games this week as the Padres face right-handed starters.

Dylan Crews ($): This is pure speculation, but given the way the Washington Nationals have been promoting their minor league prospects lately, it wouldn’t shock me if Crews takes the place of a veteran outside hitter like Alex Call on the major league roster in the near future. With above-average speed and solid hitting ability, Crews could add to the Nationals’ already impressive running game and fit the mold of what they seem to want in the outfield.

Infielders

Junior Caminero ($$$): He’s finally back! Caminero missed a lot of time earlier this season due to a lower-body injury, but has performed well at the AAA level in Durham since returning in mid-July, with a .304 batting average. Now with the Rays, Caminero is expected to play well enough to earn a starting spot with the major league club. With Curtis Mead out of the way, Caminero should get to bat regularly.

Tyler Black ($$): I’ve already publicly stated that Tyler Black is the best thing to happen to Milwaukee since beer was invented. Of course, the last time I declared him the second Ryan Braun, he was sent back to the minor leagues after just five games – and the time before that he only lasted seven games. The kid is electric and deserves a real chance. I just hope he gets it this season.

Will Wagner ($$): Another second-generation baseball player takes the field for the Blue Jays: Will Wagner, son of the great Billy Wagner, was called up to the team and began his career with a great bat.

Andres Chaparro ($): Chaparro was called up from the Nationals this week, debuted with three doubles in a win over the Orioles and hopes to stay in the major leagues. Chaparro was acquired from the Diamondbacks at the trade deadline after posting a .328 batting average with 23 home runs and 85 RBIs in AAA this season. He will compete with José Tena, Idelmaro Vargas and Juan Yepez for at-bats, but if he continues to hit this well, he could stay in the lineup for the rest of the season.

Jonah Bride ($): The Marlins have a handful of exciting talents they just signed at the trade deadline, but why give those guys a taste of the major leagues when you can put 28-year-old migrant Jonah Bride on the field every day? Bride hit 11-of-41 with four home runs in August, so I think it works. Fantasy managers in major leagues who need stealthy, cheap power can use Bride for just as long as the Marlins have.

Catcher/UT

Adrian Del Castillo ($$): Del Castillo continues to hit for the Diamondbacks and will remain important as long as Gabriel Moreno is injured.

Korey Lee ($): Another White Sox on this list? Well, he gets to bat regularly and is available in more than half of the 15-team leagues, so it’s worth a try.

Jugs

Starting pitchers

Zebby Matthews ($$$): Daniel Zebulon Matthews — or Zebby for short — made his MLB debut last week in a pitching win over the Kansas City Royals. Matthews threw five innings, allowed two earned runs on five hits and had five strikeouts. The Twins limited Matthews to just 77 pitches, and if they continue to do so, it will limit his usefulness in fantasy leagues. However, if Minnesota extends the leash after a good performance, perhaps Zebby can be an asset down the stretch.

Martin Perez ($$$): I’m not sure what the San Diego Padres have done with Martín Pérez, but it’s working. Since coming to the Padres, Perez has posted a 1.96 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 29.6% strikeout rate, and 34.2% CSW. Since arriving in San Diego, Perez has relied HEAVILY on his curveball, throwing it 26.3%, 22.2%, and 32.3% in each of his last three starts. Compare that to his season average of just 13%. Meanwhile, Perez has cut his sinker usage by nearly half since arriving in San Diego. It seems the Padres have found something with the left-hander, and fantasy managers should hope he continues to attack with the off-speed, because it’s working.

Osvaldo Bido ($$): Bido is coming off two strong starts before his game Saturday against San Francisco (which had not yet been completed as of the publication of this column), including a six-inning shutout against the Blue Jays. Assuming Bido is not pressured by the Giants, he could get a stealthy streaming start on Thursday against the Rays and then have a two-start week against Cincinnati and Texas. The A’s aren’t as bad as they seem, and neither the Reds nor the Rangers have really inspired anyone this season.

Bowden Francis ($$): Bowden Francis could be good now? Weird, I know. Despite some icky season stats, Francis has pitched really well in his last two games, including seven strikeouts against the Orioles in a five-inning no-decision game and eight strikeouts against the Angels in a seven-inning one-run game that saw him pick up the win. He posted CSW rates over 30% in his last two games and totaled 22 whiffs on 161 pitches (13.7%), which is far better than his 7.8% whiff rate this season. Francis faces the Cubs on Sunday and faces the Angels again next week. This matchup definitely makes him worth streaming.

Matthew Boyd ($): People, it’s happening.

Boyd gets a somewhat scary two-step this week with the Yankees and Rangers, but at this point in the season, he’s the kind of risk I’m willing to take. Boyd allowed just one earned run and six strikeouts in his Cleveland debut last week against the Cubs, while throwing just 80 pitches in 5.1 innings. He had 12 whiffs and posted a 38.8% CSW. It’s time to get Boyd…er, on board.

Relief Pitcher

Seranthony Domínguez ($$$): It looks like the Orioles have handed the reins of their ninth-inning effort to Seranthony Domínguez. Traded to Baltimore from the Philadelphia Phillies, Dominguez has cleanly handled each of the Orioles’ last two save opportunities through the weekend, while Craig Kimbrel continues to struggle with his control. Brendan Hyde has proven to be fiercely loyal to his bullpen, but now that the roles have switched, that may be more likely to stay that way than some think. Whoever is pitching the ninth inning for one of baseball’s winningest teams is obviously a key asset. Right now, that guy is Dominguez.

Michael Kopech ($$$): Well, the Dodgers haven’t been very consistent this season in terms of who they’ve put in the ninth inning, so why not try to get their closer by getting Kopech? Daniel Hudson blew a save on Thursday night, so it could be a next-man-up situation. Since going to LA at the trade deadline, Kopech has thrown 7.1 consecutive scoreless innings, allowing just two baserunners and recording 11 strikeouts. Even if he doesn’t play in the ninth inning, he’ll improve the odds and strikeouts. Grab him now before the price goes up after he picks up a save or two.

Jason Foley ($$): Foley is part of the Tigers’ closer committee and could get some save opportunities this week with the Cubs and White Sox on the schedule. The Detroit bullpen has been largely a gamble all season, but Foley is the team’s best player with 16 saves. If you want to bet on a Tiger relief pitcher, Foley is the one.

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